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  Tuesday, 08/12/08
Posted 08/12/08,  04:37 pm ET

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Today's date:  Tuesday, 08/12/08

  Dow Jones: 11,642   - 139
  NASDAQ:   2,430   -    9
  S&P 500:   1,289   -  15
 
 
 
 
 
All comments on one page...
 

All on one page...

These are all the stocks that Jim mentioned during today's
1:30 pm show...  Read complete stock recommendations below...

General Mills Inc. (GIS)
Intel (INTC)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Google (GOOG)
Apple (AAPL)
Research In Motion (RIMM)
Amazon.com (AMZN)
QualComm Inc. (QCOM*)
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Apple (AAPL)
 
Jim's Outrage of the Day:
Fortress Investment Group (FIG)
 
The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. (GAP)
Fluor Corporation (FLR)
XTO Energy Inc. (XTO*)
Nabors (NBR)
Halliburton Company (HAL)
General Dynamics (GD)
L-3 Communications Holdings Inc. (LLL)
Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Raytheon Co. (RTN)
streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD)

Note:    During the two week period, 8/11-8/22, Jim Cramer's 6pm show has been replaced by Olympic games' coverage. Therefore, CNBC is airing special abbreviated half hour segments, called "Mad Money At The Half"... as well as the normal Mad Money, full-hour shows, at 11pm.

Given this later schedule of only an 11pm showing (vs. the normal 6pm showing), all full show recaps will be posted as soon as possible on the following business mornings.

Beginning of the 1:30pm show comments...

Introduction:

Jim:   When oil service is down, as it has been... what do people reach for?...

I think they should reach for the stock of my guest for this half hour... General Mills Inc. (GIS)... and, of course, its ilk... the companies that use a lot of gasoline to transport their wares to supermarkets, and make their product with grains... well, baked by once-costly natural gas...

The market thinks otherwise though...

The market has seized on another theme... another theme... because the market's participants are about momentum!... Not about the fundamentals...

Yeah, the market's looking for the least-worst momentum plays now... at least for a couple of weeks... and we have seen a trade that dazzles me every day... It's a trade into tech... a trade into the Nasdaq... a daily trade into tech...

Now look, some of it makes sense... There is a new Intel (INTC) chip... we've got a big Microsoft (MSFT) buyback... there is a sense that Google (GOOG) is crushing everyone... Hey, no kidding... to the newspaper... Apple (AAPL)?... Software being added to the iPhone... new iterations of the Blackberry for Research In Motion (RIMM)... a sharply better-than-expected quarter for Amazon.com (AMZN)... and a resolution of a critical patent dispute in favor of Cramer-fave, QualComm Inc. (QCOM*)...

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) has got some kick, new graphics chips... Applied Materials (AMAT), long a doormat, is showing some gains... Plus, we're getting reports from many tech CEOs that big companies are spending on tech... even financial companies... although, of course, I'm hard pressed to find companies actually spending at all...

Sometimes you have to spend even the most well-founded beliefs to be able to make money... Yes! Sometimes in this market, you can't let the facts get in the way of a story...

No matter that these are the quintessential weak-dollar plays, and we have a strong dollar... No matter that I don't even expect earnings to be any good... The trade is being put on, and it is in our faces, even on miserable down days like today...

Now, nearly every year, the "sell tech in February, and go away until the fall trade" has worked 16 out of 17 years... These days, perhaps it was the cooler weather in New York... People are anticipating the trade. They always seem to do... it seems to be a little earlier every year...

Today, the move is not that pronounced, because the oils are trying to find their footing, despite the commodity decline, perhaps because natural gas seems to have found some sort of bottom... having retreated far more than other fuels... down to levels where there's actual industrial use, not just trading fodder...

But there's enough money coming out of the sector rotation from the banks today... and enough short sellers reloading, with the rules soon to be out of the way... Oh, when they reload, believe me... that I see money going into tech from that group too... But, you know what?... We've got guys who look at this stuff every minute... Let's find out more about all of this by bringing in Bob Pisani, on the floor of The New York Stock Exchange...

[General conversation, validating from the floor with Bob Pisani, what Jim is saying about the rotation into tech, especially after John Chambers' (CEO of Cisco (
CSCO) latest bullish comments, which are credited with sparking this latest tech rally]...

Jim: Oil, short-term, long-term... incredibly difficult. When I turned on oil on Mad Money, because we couldn't reach $150 (price per barrel), I said that oil could go through (down past) $120... and, perhaps, as low as $110...

Now it is so tempting, because I hear the chatter... It is so tempting to say, wait a second, we're going to pierce $110, and we're going to go right to $80-90... That's the stuff you've been hearing all day, right?..

Well, you know what? I didn't revise my price tartget up when we got to the $140s... I'm not going to revise it down here. I think we are almost where I thought we could go in oil. I do believe we are at a bottom in natural gas, give or take 40 cents...

There are reasons for these floors, and they have to do with industrial demand and gasoline demand...

Gasoline should be at $3.50 (a gallon), with these oil prices, okay? And that's where I think you get some demand back... We didn't have any demand at $4.27, $4.54, $4.85... but we have demand at $3.50... At least that's where the demand was last... Listen, we've seen the airline (stocks) go up. Anything can happen...

Clean natural gas... amazingly, at $8 bucks, is now as cheap as dirty coal...

I know from my charitable trust, it's been too hard to own them. I've tried to trade around them. Natural gas is a bear, but I think it could morph maybe into a bear/bull...

I think we're closing in on where I feel that I can't be as negative on this group short term... because, longer term, we still haven't been able to figure out alternatives to natural gas... we still haven't found much more of the stuff. The natural gas stocks should bottom first. They've been the weakest. They have been the been the biggest source of pain that I have ever seen... then the drillers, then ConocoPhillips (COP), then Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY)... then last, and maybe least, Exxon Mobil (XOM)... $3 away from oil and we're there...

.  .  .  .  .

Interview:

Jim's comments BEFORE the interview:

Even when it's down almost 100 points, what are we thinking?... We're thinking "Gold Medal" (As Jim holds up a bag of "Gold Medal" brand of flour, made by GIS)... General Mills Inc. (GIS) has proven that it can thrive in the face of adversity...

This company's been faced with higher wheat prices, higher energy prices... I mean, higher for basically every ingredient...

So what did the stock do, despite the hedge funds that were telling me that I should be saying short the stock?... which, of course, I'm not allowed to go long or short, but everybody wanted to say this company couldn't make it... Wrong!...

52-week high yesterday. It continues to go higher... This is a company that has kept on delivering consistently strong earnings, even better-than-expected ones... Remember when they pre-announced back in June, even though input costs are soaring?...

Now, happier days are here again. Costs are down, but the price increases GIS put through in order to pass along those high costs to its customers - unfortunately, I know it didn't want to do it, but it's able to... People like you and me at the supermarket... those price increases are sticking...

Now, we're paying a little more for Betty Crocker, for Hamburger Helper or Cheerios... General Mills, which I used to call "generous mills" because of its dividend... can pay less to make them.

This is a recipe for better-than-expected earnings through the rest of the year, and I think through 2009... And you have to keep in mind that people are staying home more for the first time in five years... Yes, they're trying to eat healthier, okay...

Throw in the fact that GIS is the archtypal recession stock, and that the company is running at full tilt, launching new products, expanding internationally, especially in China, where GIS is growing at 30%... it just begs the question: can this story get any better?...

So let's bring in... let's talk to Ken Powell, one of my absolute favorite CEOs... GIS' CEO and chairman of the board... not only because he's a great CEO, but also because he saw that happier days would be here again. He called it, just like I did...

Mr. Powell, welcome to Mad Money...


Jim's comments AFTER the interview:

I predict... you don't have to say it... I will... many more upside surprises for General Mills Inc. (GIS)!...

.  .  .  .  .

 

Outrage of the Day:

I get very outraged, because there are a lot of outrageous things that I see on Wall Street... that just drive me crazy...

Well, just when I thought that nothing could get worse for Fortress Investment Group (FIG)... take a look at that stock... what a bow-wow... I got this guy, Wes Edens (CEO of FIG) paying $300 million to Adam Levinson... I don't care that he's 38. Hey, God love him. I think it's great that people make money... but the numbers that FIG makes are so awful, that I question how it is possible that that guy gets paid $300 million?...

FIG!... You are a complete and utter embarassment to the rest of us!...

.  .  .  .  .

 

Final Remarks:

Jim:   Okay, now... let's make some money...

If you own a supermarket chain with horrible inflation problems, right... and a difficult integration issue, because of some terrible acquisitions... Now, if you own part of
The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. (GAP)... and you're German... what do you do with all of those horrible things?... Well, you're buying the heck out of them...

I've got to tell you, I'm seeing some incredible insider buying in GAP...

These are buyers that are frankly... I don't know what's in their heads, okay... I don't recommend companies that are crummy... and this company's crummy... but, ever since the company reported one of the worst quarters of any company, at least as regards to expectations, and immediately shed three-eighths of its value instantly, the 446-store chain started getting insider buying...

They're 38% owned by Tangleman, okay... The dollar's been brutal. If I were Tangleman, well, maybe I'd think... No. I'll let you conclude it...

.  .  .  .  .

Look, I'm looking at my screen...

A couple of things that are pretty absurd... some are making sense...

There is a real attempt for natural gas to stabilize... Of course, because I threw one out for my charitable trust yesterday... It was called "made in the volcano"... you do it when you can't take it anymore... simply a sign of a bottom...

But let me tell you what's really absurd... Fluor Corporation (FLR)...

This is ridiculous. The company guided up. We heard from Ray Milkovich at Foster Wheeler (FWLT*) last week... Oil's got to go (down in price) to $70 a barrel, before these projects get canceled. I want to buy FLR, right into this weakness. I think it's ludicrous... I think it's ridiculous...

Watch XTO Energy Inc. (XTO*). That led us down, okay... Think Nabors (NBR), think Halliburton Company (HAL)... they're natural gas drillers. It's time, it's time... It's starting to really anger me that these stocks are going down endlessly.

Do I want to do ag too?... I don't know... ag's too hard, but I think infrastructure is way, way overdone to the downside... and it's obvious that whatever quant funds and hedge funds that are pressing them down will then go to another group. Maybe they'll go to the financials for a couple more days, and then knock those down...

.  .  .  .  .

All right, the McCain factor is playing out big right now...

We are seeing these defense stocks have runs that are reminiscent of Ronald Reagan, when we had big budgets coming toward defense and, when the market's bad, stocks like General Dynamics (GD) and L-3 Communications Holdings Inc. (LLL)... or Northrop Grumman (NOC) and Raytheon Co. (RTN), which has been a horrible performer... are now shining. They actually go higher on bad days, or stay flat to edge slightly down on just, well, (days like) today...

When Obama triumphed (over Hillary), these stocks were hammered mercilessly. They have become remarkably resilient, ever since McCain started getting traction. Given the strong earnings profile, and the bountiful cash, I'm beginning to wonder whether we shouldn't buying... buying defense stocks, right into the Republican convention... when the hoopla is loudest. It seems like one of the better bets out there in a totally convoluted and difficult market...

.  .  .  .  .

Let's talk gold...

I was listening to the fabulous guys at Fast Money, right before the break...

They're talking about streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD)... and I think that GLD could be right...

I'm bringing on a gold company management tonight (on his 11pm show)... I've seen gold plummet, and I am wondering again whether that is overdone and, seasonably, we shouldn't be buying gold right here... It's a contra (contrarian) play. I've hated gold. I think it's time.

 

[ End of 1:30 "Mad Money: At The Half" Show Comments ]

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Trading Price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


GIS

67.12

na

General Mills Inc. (GIS)

INTC


 

24.45

na

 

Intel (INTC)


MSFT

28.32

na

Microsoft (MSFT)

GOOG


 

505.07

na

 

Google (GOOG)


RIMM

129.70

na

Research In Motion (RIMM)

AMZN


 

87.27

na

 

Amazon.com (AMZN)


QCOM*

54.39

na

QualComm Inc. (QCOM*)

AMD


 

5.21

na

 

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)


AMAT

18.54

na

Applied Materials (AMAT)

FIG


 

10.17

na

 

Fortress Investment Group (FIG)


GAP

17.55

na

The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. (GAP)