Thursday, 08/21/08
Posted 08/21/08,  08:49 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 08/21/08

  Dow Jones: 11,430   +  12
  NASDAQ:   2,380     -  8
  S&P 500:   1,277     + 3
 
 
 
 
 
All comments on one page...
 

All on one page...

See today's 1:30pm show comments below... 

Note:    During the two week period, 8/11-8/22, Jim Cramer's 6pm show has been replaced by Olympic games' coverage. Therefore, CNBC is airing special abbreviated half hour segments, called "Mad Money At The Half"... as well as the normal Mad Money, full-hour shows, at 11pm.

Given this later schedule of only an 11pm showing (vs. the normal 6pm showing), all full show recaps will be posted as soon as possible on the following business mornings.

Beginning of the 1:30pm show comments...

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Introductory Comments:

'Pulse of the Market'...

Jim:   Oh, DirecTV Group Inc. (DTV)... it was a better than expected quarter... Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK)... everybody likes natural gas all of the sudden it held the $8 level... Anything resources like Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. (PCL)... Goldman Sachs (GS*), are they going to show a loss?... I mean, that's what the stock is showing... it's showing a loss... Nabors (NBR), that's all nat gas... Big coal upgrade... it's working big... I've got to tell you, coal, we saw the Chinese are short supply... Do you really want to own a restaurant turn in this environment with oil up $5?... You get the picture... Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) going lower... And by the way, Freddie Mac (FRE), oh please, stop trading already... It's so obvious that some guys know the answer... There was some guy talking in plunge, that's what you call power axe... who was saying, wait a second... you shouldn't stop trading... No, you stop trading because not everybody knows everything, all right?... Not everybody knows everything, but some people do...

We all know what happens in this business happens from the floor up... the trading floor... We're going to Bob Pisani, as we have all week from the New York Stock Exchange... Bob, what are you seeing what are you hearing?...


AFTER conversation with Bob Pisani:    You've got it Bob, you're absolutely right... and it's good because when we have them all we should temper our enthusiasm because the stock (Heinz (HNZ) has run up indeed... Thank you so much...

Speaking of energy... I have to say this... I've got to tell you... You can't do these moves in oil anymore... These futures are starting to get a little ridiculous... You can't move oil up $5 and expect us to think it can go right back where it was at $148... There was ample supply up there... We know that the terrorist actions, whatever they're talking about won't amount to a hill of the beans... We know if it goes up much more, OPEC will look, OPEC will flood us again... And we know enough to realize the headline writers are busy, again, giving us misdirection... They're saying Russia, today we care about Russia... Someone give me a break...

I like Bob Pisani's notion that the dollar going down gives people to buy oil, but I also think let's face it... I think someone is trapped here... Notice though, the oil stocks, which were factoring in $80 a barrel oil last week do react to quarterly, not to $120, but to the fact that we're not going to $80... All week we've been referencing the fact that there was strong demand here for natural gas... Industrial demand... Thanks to Jim Hackett... He came in on Monday, the CEO of Anadarko Petroleum (APC)... told us the truth about the futures and how they're lying... His stock and the rest of the group... they're up for real...

I have been using $110 a floor for oil and $8 a floor for natural gas... they're holding... But we're beginning to get a sense that these futures' prices... maybe they're just not that reliable... Because we know that oil, for the moment, is pretty plentiful... I think what's happening here is we're establishing a range in oil... We don't want to go below $110... but I don't think we're headed back for $148... That's because the swing factor here is you, the American driver... and we know that American driving gets curtailed at $4 a gallon... In other words, this time the assault on oil will be stunted and stopped and turned back, because we know there is a point there isn't much demand... Far more likely explanation... Some trader was caught short and everyone was wise to it...

This week has been catch up week to the oil stocks... for Exxon Mobil (XOM), for Chevron (CVX), for ConocoPhillips (COP)... They touched levels that were out of synch with the commodity... The estimates for the oils are for prices below here... so if you have no refining options to speak of, you're going to blow away the numbers...

The far more interesting market to me is natural gas... where the futures for quite a long time were simply not indicative of anything other than a small market prone to manipulation, as we know from Amarith, the busted hedge fund from last year... Now it looks like the short selling that's softened traders has been stemmed by that industrial that Anadarko is talking about... Natural gas lives right here... We've been plagued by futures markets that are thin and not realistic... I am along with saying ignore them, but the stock market is on a tear here ever since oil hit $5, we've been coming back... and I'm listening to stocks, not a couple of yahoos in the oil futures pit...

Bob Pisani mentioned that we caught a great quarter this morning from Heinz (HNZ)... Now, because we're real time here, HNZ is up $.40... Many of you might have thought it should be up $1.40, maybe $2.40, because it was such a beautiful quarter... You know what?... I leave these issues until I listen to the conference call, which I had the good fortune to, and until I get to speak, because I am Cramer, to the Chairman, President and CEO of HNZ... who I was proud enough to meet last year... we went to the University of Texas...

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CEO Interview:
Bill Johnson, CEO
Heinz (HNZ)

Jim's comments BEFORE the interview:
Well, Mr. Johnson, congratulations on a beautiful quarter... Talking about a lot of things that are working with Heinz (HNZ)... There's just one question I've got to ask Bill Johnson, who delivered a remarkable number...

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Jim's comments AFTER the interview:
Bill Johnson, HNZ, great quarter... up $.40... consumer down tape... Bill Johnson you delivered a great quarter, congratulations... The stock's a buy... appreciate it... always good to talk to you sir...

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Outrage of the Day:

Jim:    All right, look... There is some things that are just outrageous to me... I'm sure they're outrageous to you... You hear about them all day and I say Lehman Brothers (LEH)... I mean, come on LEH... Make something happen... Something... Just get off my radar screen... Go private, get sold... Hey listen go Bear Sterns, I don't even care... Do something now!... Get off my front page!... Isn't that how we really feel?... I mean, isn't it?...

I mean, we know this has become a lurking black hole like the other crises... General Motors (GM), Ford (F)... we were doing a little tape watching earlier of Washington Mutual (WM)... that stock is obviously... stocks can't go to minus $3... American International Group (AIG), Citigroup (C), Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE)... though show the quintessential insiders... you don't know what's going on though people are buying millions of shares and selling it who actually do...

We're all tired and burned out... We want some resolutions... We need to see something happen... We need to get it so the big sores are fixed... We are to the point that if LEH disappeared, just disappeared off of the face of the earth, other than the people who work at LEH, I think it would be a God sent...

The uncertainty is killing us... Look, we know business is bad... We know Goldman Sachs (GS*) could very well report a loss for this quarter... I've owned it for my charitable trust since the day I started it... I'm going to continue to own it... But it may report a loss... We know there is know there is no real bottom yet in the securities business... but it's the day to day chaos that needs to be put to rest before we even find anything like Terra Firma, okay?...

The SEC gave us a chance to catch our breath by not allowing such a quick demise of institutions at the hand of aggressive shorting... It ruins confidence... But that went away because the SEC decided that with the academics and the laissez faire attitude, hey, let's see what happens...

Now, it's the dead of summer with no one around but the shorts to push stocks down... We are staring at the abyss of LEH and management fiddles just like Bear... just like Bear.

.  .  .  .  .

CEO Interview:
Michael Ward, CEO
CSX Corp. (CSX)

Jim's comments BEFORE the interview:
When we think about companies we should buy because of worldwide growth, but also companies we should buy because of great management... We think about a company we have championed on Mad Money literally since the first week of the show... and the company is CSX Corp. (CSX)... Why?... Because the Chairman and CEO and President of CSX had delivered, since he came on board 5 years ago, 335% profit to you if you banked with Michael Ward... On the line now is Mr. Ward, Chairman, President and CEO of CSX... How have you been?

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Jim's comments AFTER the interview:
Michael Ward, you have continued to deliver for people who watch Mad Money... I thank you very much for coming on... next time in person...

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From The Headlines...

The strong dollar is bad for companies... The weak dollar is bad for companies... Inflation numbers are terrible... But if it's the last one, it's good... Oil is up, oil is going down... Unless it was going down so much it looks like it is a recession... Collapse of Fannie Freddie bad for banks... Collapse of Fannie and Freddie, good for banks...

Welcome to our world... Welcome to the chaos of our world... I want to tell you something... This is one of the most challenging period I've ever experienced in my thirty years in this business... There are huge issues that are so difficult to fathom... and more important, the gloom is so thick... thicker than Heinz ketchup, that we don't want to hear the good things out there...

Yet, it is important for you to fight the gloom... Let me give you a palpable example from this morning's Wall Street Journal... The headlines predicted to be down beat negative... Heating-oil Users can Brace for Expensive Winter... Wooo... Scary... That's going to kill Christmas... Early Grinch... But lost in that story is that the fuel that heats most homes by far is natural gas... and year over year natural gas is unchanged... It's down over 40% from a month ago... Should the story not have been: Natural Gas Users get Reprieve - Inexpensive Winter!

How about the fact that, on Mad Money recently, we spoke to Fred Faller, the CEO of Spectra Energy Corp. (SE), one of the largest natural gas pipelines in the country... and he is saying natural gas is taking a lot of share from heating oil... Homeowners are switching dramatically... Maybe it goes from 63% to 70%... and a lot of that is coal, that stuff... So, more people can switch relatively easy...

Perhaps the story should be "People Switching to Natural Gas to Save Money"... Or is that more of a USA Today purple section story?... The point here is your reference... This is my last day here for Mad Money at the Half... I'm returning to my regular 6 pm next week as well as my usual 11 pm... I just wanted you to know that on Mad Money we question assumptions like this... We question the negative and the positive... But we question all the gloom... We emphasize that while it is gloomy, it is important to recognize that while I've been in this game for thirty years... and in that time the Dow Jones average has gone from 1300 to 11,397... and we've been loaded with gloom the whole way... Gloom like heating oil users can brace for expensive winter...

Tonight is part of series we're doing on head to head comparisons... We're examining Procter & Gamble (PG) versus Unilever plc (UL), my bias... Procter, I own it for my charitable trust... But the more we looked at the decline in Unilever, the dividend, the potential for a turn, the newly stronger dollar... the more I realized that the price was driven down by pessimism... there might be a buy in there somewhere... Stay tuned tonight for the answer...

Conventional wisdom can be costly... Overly excessive optimism can be costly... But, right now, the most important consideration that is costly is gloom... People laugh at our tag line on the show... We say it every night... There is always a bull market somewhere... and we'll try to find it for you... They laughed at its optimism... they laugh at Pollyanna approach... Those who laugh are wrong... We offer a practical approach on Mad Money... I'm about trying to cut through the nonsense, and at times, the excessive gloom, to try and make you money... It's just too expensive to listen to the endless sirens of negativity... If you do, you're liable to miss a CSX Corp. (CSX) or a Heinz (HNZ)... or something so good it might be the only way to augment your paycheck...

Just a simple thought... Be skeptical, but don't be blindly pessimistic... You will miss the bull market that is out there, and you won't let me find it for you.

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Final Remarks - What 2 Watch For:

Let's get a little more pulse of the market... HAL natural gas play... that stock should be a little bit higher, maybe $2 bucks versus its competitors... Potash (POT), yes, up $7, big short squeeze right there... Washington Mutual (WM), you know where I think that one's going... Do I have to tell you?... I don't think so... Wall of Shame guy who's running it... Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc. (JEC)... this is the first day that any of the infrastructure plays do well... I predict a multi-day move for infrastructure... Why don't you watch Fluor Corporation (FLR)?...  FLR apparently disappointed people... I think if that stock is up $2-3 by the end of the day, you could back in an infrastructure rally... Oh man... look at that, a there's a financial that's actually up... MetLife (MET)... The financials are not going to, as I said... The problem with the financials,

... I mean, come on Lehman Brothers (LEH)... Make something happen... Something... Just get off my radar screen... Go private, get sold... Hey listen go Bear Sterns, I don't even care... Do something now!... Get off my front page!... Isn't that how we really feel?... I mean, isn't it?  Lehman Brothers (LEH), American International Group (AIG), Washington Mutual (WM), Citigroup (C), Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE)... We've got to get each one of them knocked off before I think we will see a floor we can operate off of... But we will hold the July 15th low for the banks... We will hold it.

[ End of 1:30 "Mad Money: At The Half" Show Comments ]

 

   
 

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