Wednesday, 01/02/08
Posted 01/02/08,  11:36 pm

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Wednesday, 01/02/08

  Dow Jones: 13,043    -220
  NASDAQ:   2,609     - 42
  S&P 500:   1,447     - 21
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Working Theory'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY)
Barrick Gold Corp.
(ABX)
Apple Inc.
(AAPL)
Savient Pharma
(SVNT)
BioMarin
(BMRN)


See Opening Segment 2, below...

        
JJC:   Gold is skyrocketing...  Oil has finally done it... It hit $100 bucks a barrel...  We got higher prices, less economic activity, and inflation... and how about a presidential campaign in Iowa that will likely give us some candidates that the market thinks are awful for business?...

So it's no wonder we were down 221 points in the first trading day of 2008...

It's a pity, but it's also one we've dealt with over and over again here in Cramerica, and it's one we'll keep dealing with because, alas, there is always some bull market kicking around somewhere...  and today's market screams that oil and infrastructure, and this nation's absolutely absurd love affair with ethanol will make 2008 look a lot like... yep... 2007.

The only adjustment we need to make is we need to add gold, which is why I was already commenting earlier in the year that I thought it was good for insurance, right?... But now it looks like insurance is paying off...  So let's just take down some gold for investment... It's Barrick (ABX) for mainstream gold, and Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY) for growth gold...

.  .  .  .  .


Since this year is looking a lot like last year already, we don't need to focus on how bad the tape is - meaning the broad proclivity of stock...  We need to look at what went right first... and then what went wrong in 2007... particularly with things I predicted... so that you can apply these lessons, and keep on trying to make some mad money in this new year... 

 

.  .  .  .  .

At the beginning of 2007, I picked nine stocks of the year... three value, three growth and three speculative..

The stocks collectively were up an average of 16.4%, compared to 4% for the S&P...

So, even though I'm all about - as everyone knows - self flagellation and self-mutilation... the results mean we need to focus on what worked, rather than on what didn't...

For value, I picked Goldman Sachs (GS*), up 7%... I picked Altria (MO*), up 16%... and I picked Halliburton (HAL), up 27%...

Yeah, all winners...

.  .  .  .  .

For growth, I picked Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), down 5%... Apple Inc. (AAPL), up 131%... and NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYX*), the worst trading stock I have ever seen, for most of the year, which finished down 8%...

.  .  .  .  .

My speculative picks were Savient Pharma (SVNT), which I then told you to swap out of, to BioMarin (BMRN)... on September 28th...  That gave you a 77% return... and then two real clunkers... Rite Aid Corp. (RAD), down 50%... and Level 3 (LVLT), down 49%...

But we still managed to come out on top...

.  .  .  .  .

There's a lot we can learn from getting introspective here... and then analyzing what went right...

First and foremost, these stocks of the year show that, if you contain your losses, your winners will get there.

Remember, one of the things we learn, and we keep teaching is, if you can cut your losses, you are going to make money.

We didn't have any big losers in the growth and value groups...  And you can see how an AAPL or a HAL - the two big winners - took care of all the upside...

.  .  .  .  .

The second takeaway is that you need to stick with your winners...

AAPL had been a big winner in 2006.  We liked it then...

Then, you could have gotten out, but nothing had changed, except that it had gotten better, with the iPhone...  with more iterations of iTunes and, most importantly, with the actual old Macs... and it made you more money.

Winners win and losers lose... what a cliché... but, most of the time, it's just that simple.

You've got to remember that the market is really - in the end - just one big herd and, most of the time, herds aren't that sophisticated, and that means, if you're out-thinking things, well, you're going to get it wrong.  Losers will hurt, and winners will help.

As long as AAPL keeps growing at 30%, I'm on board...

.  .  .  .  .

The third takeaway is that even the worst stock in a good neighborhood... the absolute worst stock in a good neighborhood... remains in the house of pleasure...

I'm talking about here... Prince Halliburton (HAL)... Do you know, that was the worst of the oil service bunch?... and it's still a winner...

The
Oil Service Index (OIH) was up about 42%... HAL was only up 27% for the year...

You would have been better off owning a different oil driller, but anything in that sector worked, because rising tides do lift all boats...

.  .  .  .  .

The fourth lesson...  slow and steady can win the race in stocks.

Do you know that there was absolutely nothing exciting about Altria (MO*), which is the old Phillip Morris?...  It was just a weak dollar play with a strong dividend... I own it for the trust.  But it beat the averages handily...

One of the things I like is that there's a guy there by the name of Dinyar Devitre, who's the CFO... I am telling you something... that guy should stick with the company, because they are the best, well-managed money team I have ever seen.  

.  .  .  .  .

The last thing that I want you to learn from these stocks is that biotech is the true stuff of dreams... and, while it's high reward...

Both Savient (SVNT) and BioMarin (BMRN) were big winners.

Of course, my other speculative stocks... they got annihilated... 

.  .  .  .  .

On a big down like today, it's important to look back at what's worked, so you can duplicate it in the future.  And not let yourself get all depressed, and hopeless, and homeless... because the tape was so ugly...

.  .  .  .  .


The Bottom Line!:   If you contain your losses, your winners will win.  You need to stick with those winners, as long as the fundamentals underneath stay the same...  Even the worst stock in a strong sector can make you money.  Slow and steady stocks can win the race for you and, if you're going to speculate in 2008, biotech is the field to speculate in.  Stick with Cramer to see me stick it to myself for what went wrong with the stocks of the year, and then, later, I'll actually tell you what to do with all these stocks, and which ones are still super-deduper strong buys.

I have not talked to an investor on the phone in ages, although a lot of guys bothered me yesterday trying to get me to recommend a bunch of stocks I don't like, like Elan Corp. plc (ELN)...



[See Jim's 2nd Opening Segment stock picks below... ]

 

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance


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Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

AUY

13.87

13.79

Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY)

ABX

46.02

46.01

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX)

AAPL

194.84

195.49

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

SVNT

24.01

24.05

Savient Pharma (SVNT)

BMRN

36.64

36.79

BioMarin (BMRN)

ELN

22.09

21.85

Elan Corp. plc (ELN)

 


Netflix, Inc.


 
 
Second Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'Error Messages'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

General discussion looking back on Jim's 2007 stocks of the year... 

        

JJC:   I want to get a little more introspective than usual... and focus on the misery of 2007... or, let's be very specific...

The misery I caused with the stocks that went wrong that I recommended for the year...

 

.  .  .  .  .

Now I don't want to lose sight of the fact that the stocks en masse dramatically out-performed the averages.

If you bought my nine stocks of the year, and then swapped out that Savient (SVNT) into BioMarin (BMRN), when I replaced it on September 28th... all together, you had a 16.4% gain for the year... compared to 4% for the S&P... and I've got to tell you something... that's not bad. 

But!... There were some real stinkers... some real losers... some ones that would absolutely make you cry, and I actually think there's a lot more we can learn from those losers than we can from the winners...

.  .  .  .  .

So let's make a few New Year's resolutions so we don't repeat those mistakes... and then, after the Lightning Round, I'll tell you what I think of these stocks now...

[Go to those comments directly here]...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:    Learn from my mistakes in 2007, and they weren't that bad, since these stocks still trounced the averages...  and you'll do even better in 2008.  And, of course, stick with Cramer, and I'll tell you what I think you should do with my nine stocks of the year now...  [In the Closing Comments here]...



Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

     

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

na

na

na

na

         

 

   
 

Go to the next segment from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>


Netflix, Inc.


Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
Helpful Websites:
  See the stocks currently known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:

jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com

 
See the stocks currently known to be in Warren Buffett's portfolio
of stocks at:

warren-buffett-portfolio.com

 
  Stock Homework 101:   This is an excellent upcoming site that provides resources and links to help you do that homework that Jim Cramer recommends after hearing his suggestions...

StockHomework101.com

This site is coming soon.   Thank you.

 
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Fast Money Recap - Trades for next day...

Compare these picks to Jim's comments for the same stocks.

 

 

   
   
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