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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Working Theory' |
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Featured Stock(s): |
Yamana Gold Inc.
(AUY)
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Savient Pharma (SVNT)
BioMarin (BMRN)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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JJC: Gold is
skyrocketing... Oil
has finally done it... It
hit $100 bucks a barrel...
We got higher prices, less
economic activity, and
inflation... and how about
a presidential campaign in
Iowa that will likely give
us some candidates that
the market thinks are
awful for business?...
So it's no wonder we were
down 221 points in the
first trading day of
2008...
It's a pity, but it's also
one we've dealt with over
and over again here in
Cramerica, and it's one
we'll keep dealing with
because, alas, there is
always some bull market
kicking around
somewhere... and
today's market screams
that oil and
infrastructure, and this
nation's absolutely absurd
love affair with ethanol
will make 2008 look a lot
like... yep... 2007.
The only adjustment we
need to make is we need to
add gold, which is why I
was already commenting
earlier in the year that I
thought it was good for
insurance, right?... But
now it looks like
insurance is paying off...
So let's just take down
some gold for
investment... It's
Barrick (ABX)
for mainstream gold, and
Yamana Gold Inc.
(AUY)
for growth gold...
. . . .
.
Since this year is looking
a lot like last year
already, we don't need to
focus on how bad the tape
is - meaning the broad
proclivity of stock...
We need to look at what
went right first... and
then what went wrong in
2007... particularly with
things I predicted... so
that you can apply these
lessons, and keep on
trying to make some mad
money in this new year...
. . . .
.
At the beginning of 2007,
I picked nine stocks of
the year... three value,
three growth and three
speculative..
The stocks collectively
were up an average of
16.4%, compared to 4% for
the S&P...
So, even though I'm all
about - as everyone knows
- self flagellation and
self-mutilation... the
results mean we need to
focus on what worked,
rather than on what
didn't...
For value, I picked
Goldman Sachs (GS*),
up 7%... I picked
Altria (MO*),
up 16%... and I picked
Halliburton (HAL),
up 27%...
Yeah, all winners...
. . . .
.
For growth, I picked
Cisco Systems, Inc.
(CSCO),
down 5%...
Apple Inc. (AAPL),
up 131%... and NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYX*),
the worst trading stock I
have ever seen, for most
of the year, which
finished down 8%...
. . . .
.
My speculative picks were
Savient Pharma (SVNT),
which I then told you to
swap out of, to
BioMarin (BMRN)...
on September 28th...
That gave you a 77%
return... and then two
real clunkers... Rite Aid Corp. (RAD),
down 50%... and
Level 3
(LVLT),
down 49%...
But we still managed to
come out on top...
. . . .
.
There's a lot we can learn
from getting introspective
here... and then analyzing
what went right...
First and foremost, these
stocks of the year show
that, if you contain your
losses, your winners will
get there.
Remember, one of the
things we learn, and we
keep teaching is, if you
can cut your losses, you
are going to make money.
We didn't have any big
losers in the growth and
value groups... And
you can see how an AAPL or
a HAL - the two big
winners - took care of all
the upside...
. . . .
.
The second takeaway is
that you need to stick
with your winners...
AAPL had been a big winner
in 2006. We liked it
then...
Then, you could have
gotten out, but nothing
had changed, except that
it had gotten better, with
the
iPhone... with more iterations
of iTunes and, most
importantly, with the
actual old Macs... and it
made you more money.
Winners win and losers
lose... what a cliché...
but, most of the time,
it's just that simple.
You've got to remember
that the market is really
- in the end - just one
big herd and, most of the
time, herds aren't that
sophisticated, and that
means, if you're
out-thinking things, well,
you're going to get it
wrong. Losers will
hurt, and winners will
help.
As long as AAPL keeps
growing at 30%, I'm on
board...
. . . .
.
The third takeaway is that
even the worst stock in a
good neighborhood... the
absolute worst stock in a
good neighborhood...
remains in the house of
pleasure...
I'm talking about here...
Prince
Halliburton (HAL)...
Do you know, that was the
worst of the oil service
bunch?... and it's still a
winner...
The
Oil Service Index
(OIH)
was up about 42%... HAL
was only up 27% for the
year...
You would have been better
off owning a different oil
driller, but anything in
that sector worked,
because rising tides do
lift all boats...
. . . .
.
The fourth lesson...
slow and steady can win
the race in stocks.
Do you know that there was
absolutely nothing
exciting about Altria
(MO*),
which is the old Phillip
Morris?... It was
just a weak dollar play
with a strong dividend...
I own it for
the trust. But
it beat the averages
handily...
One of the things I like
is that there's a guy
there by the name of
Dinyar Devitre, who's the
CFO... I am telling you
something... that guy
should stick with the
company, because they are
the best, well-managed
money team I have ever
seen.
. . . .
.
The last thing that I want
you to learn from these
stocks is that biotech is
the true stuff of
dreams... and, while it's
high reward...
Both Savient (SVNT)
and BioMarin (BMRN)
were big winners.
Of course, my other
speculative stocks... they
got annihilated...
. . . .
.
On a big down like today,
it's important to look
back at what's worked, so
you can duplicate it in
the future. And not
let yourself get all
depressed, and hopeless,
and homeless... because
the tape was so ugly...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
If you contain your
losses, your winners will
win. You need to
stick with those winners,
as long as the
fundamentals underneath
stay the same...
Even the worst stock in a
strong sector can make you
money. Slow and
steady stocks can win the
race for you and, if
you're going to speculate
in 2008, biotech is the
field to speculate in.
Stick with Cramer to see
me stick it to myself for
what went wrong with the
stocks of the year, and
then, later, I'll actually
tell you what to do with
all these stocks, and
which ones are still
super-deduper strong buys.
I have not talked to an
investor on the phone in
ages, although a lot of
guys bothered me yesterday
trying to get me to
recommend a bunch of
stocks I don't like, like
Elan Corp. plc (ELN)...
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
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Go to the next segment from
tonight's show
here >>
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Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >> |
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Symbol keys: |
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A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >> |
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Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself. |
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Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself. |
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Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about. |
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Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms": |
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Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back... |
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Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you. |
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Definition: 'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock). |
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Definition: 'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >> |
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Helpful Websites: |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Warren
Buffett's portfolio
of
stocks at:
warren-buffett-portfolio.com |
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Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
StockHomework101.com
This site is coming soon.
Thank you. |
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FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.
Fast Money Recap - Trades
for next day...
Compare these picks to Jim's
comments for the same
stocks. |
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