JJC:   I continue to preach caution... That's why I endlessly state we need to worry less about capital appreciation, and more about capital preservation, until the Fed finally acts and starts slashing rates big... that's what we need.  Stop listening to anyone else... all you've got to do is cut rates...

So, we have our plan... caution, cash, wagon-circling... until times get better...  We've got to keep a low-risk profile, meaning not taking on too much risk, staying diversified, buying stocks with good dividends... they will cushion.  They won't provide all the answers, but they'll cushion... and, of course, keeping some cash handy...

But that doesn't mean that there isn't opportunity... and you know that I am always on the lookout for you for opportunity...

Some opportunity may have come yesterday...

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Wall Street looked like a particularly bloody boardroom scene in the incredible, fabulous - and I am going to be in - Celebrity Apprentice...

That's right, in the last 24 hours, the unthinkable has happened.  At least four corporate boards in this country have looked up the meaning of the word, 'accountability'...

And, in the last 24 hours, three CEOs and one chairman of the board at these four companies have been replaced...  Considering how difficult it can be to get rid of the most obviously ruinously incompetent CEOs out there, and how long it can take, I regard this transforming day as nothing short of a miracle!...  Trump, himself, could not have done any better, even with my help...

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At Starbucks (SBUX), the inept... Jim Donald has been fired... and he's replaced with the guy we used to love, the brilliant Howard Schultz... the man who made SBUX into a titan.

At Bear Stearns (BSC), Jimmy Cayne is stepping down, under pressure...

And two other firms... at Sallie Mae (SLM) and Krispy Kreme (KKD)... top executives have been replaced, all in the last 24 hours...

This is such a great confluence of firings... and, when something like this happens, guys like me - even on a down-230 day, where there's obviously a lot of gloom, a lot of worry, a lot of pain... need to step up and answer the question... does it matter?...  

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I'm going to tell you what all four of these accountability moments mean for their stocks... and how these job losses... whether they can make or lose you money...

Let's start with Starbucks (SBUX)...  Now I should say, up front, that I got a call on my cell phone last night, at about 10pm... from exactly the man I wanted to hear from... from Howard Schultz...  The last time we talked, it wasn't as pleasant...  Given my incredible dissing of SBUX, I thought I'd never speak to Howard Schultz again...  But now the wayward Jim Donald is out, and Schultz is taking the reins again.  And this stock that I've loathed has become as close to a buy as you can get in this uncertain, and certainly miserable, market...  Not at this price, but let's deal with that in a moment...

So here's the story...

I hated SBUX in the $30s... I hated it, as it fell through the $20s...  Now, I like Howard Schultz, but you know me... I'm not about making friends...  You see, I'm trying to make you money and, if you sold SBUX when I told you to, you saved yourself a fortune, even though I thought I cost myself a friendship...

Why did I say sell SBUX?...  Six reasons...

1.)  Too many stores.  I felt they had saturated.  I couldn't see another Starbucks coming in.

2.)  Danny Meyer, who we know as the guru of hospitality.  He put us in Chipotle (CMG) at about half of where it is, and got us out of Darden (DRI), and got us out of a lot of others... He was saying that SBUX - which sells hospitality, sells an atmosphere - couldn't keep up the pace.  Danny Meyer was saying that SBUX would need to hire 90,000 in America alone to keep that pace, and there just aren't 90,000 people who could go to work at Starbucks...

3.)  SBUX seemed run for Wall Street, not main street... meaning they were putting up stores everywhere, seemingly without thought for profits, because Wall Street loves new stores, new stores, new stores!... Growth!

4.)  Their customer service was overwhelmed.  When I went to my Starbucks today... to order the triple cappacino with skim wet, two guys got in front of me in the revolving door... so I knew I was sunk... Forget about it!  I walked out.  I just wanted to go to McDonald's (MCD*) for my latte, and now McDonald's has opened coffee bars everywhere...

5.)  SBUX had lost direction.  No new products.  Just endless line extensions.

6.)  SBUX was too domestic.  Even though it had international, everything mattered in the United States, because the United States was slowing, and people don't want to pay $4.78 for a triple cappacino wet, with skim of course...

By the way, these were the same concerns we had with McDonald's (MCD*), way back in 2003.  But then, that stock was at $12.  Now it's at $57...

What did they do?...

They went back to basics.  They cleaned the bathrooms... offered new products... secret sauce... expanded overseas.  They pulled it off!  Because they brought back two champs, Jim Cantalupo and Fred Turner, who'd been instrumental in building McDonald's in the first place, and they gave them the run of the place...

That's where SBUX is now!  It's MCD* maybe at $14...  

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But Howard Schultz has come home, and that's going to make all the difference in the world.  That's why I was so thrilled last night to get a call from Howard.  He knew I was upset about all these problems.  He also know how hard it was for me to downgrade the stock, given my fondness and respect for him, and how I had backed SBUX to everyone for over a decade!

So, last night, Howard Schultz promised me he would not let me down...

He didn't promise Wall Street... he didn't promise the analyst meeting... he promised me!  On a cell phone to me, okay?...  He said he's energized!  He will not stop until SBUX has turned around.

He is addressing all of my concerns.  We talked about how McDonald's starting turning around with cleaner bathrooms!  He liked that... not that his bathrooms aren't clean, but that was a basic, basic!  Because then you start taking your kids back there...

We talked about service... He says he's going to address that too...

We talked about willy-nilly expansion... it looks like that's out.

I talked about how the MCD* turn took about six months to be visible, and 18 months to impact earnings.  He didn't blanche...  He did say it was doable.

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Howard Schultz made me believe that he could do it.  This is not Michael Dell, who came back to Dell (DELL), after an absence, and the stock is down big.  DELL is a total commodity.  There's nothing commodity about SBUX... 

I think this is much more like MCD* in the low teens, particularly if he takes that brand name, then does much more with it overseas like MCD* did, and accepts, as he's promised to me, to cut back the United States...

I believe in Howard Schultz;  I believe he will do it...  I'm sure it was very difficult for him to fire Donald... Donald's a good man... but something had to change.

I also believe that the quarter... the quarter that will be announced January 30th... will be awful. 

The stock was up huge today on some upgrades.  Now, I've got to tell you, here's what will happen...  Five days from now, in this horrible market, people will forget that Schultz is coming back, and you'll get your chance to buy it.

I also presume that, when they report, people will be upset and say that the task is too great for Howard Schultz... they'll lose faith in Schultz, and that will be the real buying opportunity.

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So here's what I'd do...

I would buy a quarter of my position tomorrow, into what I believe will be another Nasdaq selloff at one point...  and then, I think, maybe another quarter a week from now... you know how I like to scale in, not all at once, take my time... and then the other half, after they report at the end of the month, when people say, forget it, Schultz can't turn it around... Because he can.  I believe this is right, because Schultz made me that promise.  He reached out to me, and he made me that promise...

Why does that matter?...

Because he stuck his neck out.  You never do that when you're a man like Schultz, unless you can deliver.

True... I did want to wait for SBUX to hit $16 before going positive.  I thought it was nice and symmetrical, because I sold you to sell it at $32... I figured, cut in half...  But I'm not going to be pennywise and pound foolish here...

I can't stay negative now that Schultz is back, and he's pledging to fix all the problems...

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The Bottom Line!:    The stock had too much of a spike in this awful market...  You start buying it a little bit lower.  I think, a dollar down (i.e., $18.86) is where McDonald's (MCD*) was at $12, okay?...  This stock will do what MCD* did...  and I think, if you're just willing to wait 18 months, you will have a much, much higher... much better company and higher stock.

[See Jim's 2nd Opening Segment stock picks below... ]