|
|
|
● |
|
|
 |
| |
| |
 |
| |
|
| |
Monday, 03/03/08
Posted 03/03/08, 11:14
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
|
| |
| |
|
Today's date:
Monday, 03/03/08 |
|
| |
Dow Jones: |
12,258 |
-
7 |
| |
NASDAQ: |
|
2,258 |
-
12 |
| |
S&P 500: |
|
1,331 |
- 0 |
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Sweet Sixteen'
'Pot Luck'
|
|
. . . .
. |
|
Featured Stock(s): |
Potash (POT)
See POT's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
POT
here.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
|
|
|
After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC: March
Madness is upon us... that
period where we whittle
down all those college
hoops squads to one
national champion... but,
before we get there, we've
got to cut the teams
down...
Where do we cut them
first?... We cut them down
to 16... The Sweet
Sixteen!...
Tonight, I know who's
going to be in the Sweet
Sixteen... I've got
the three that I know are
going to make it into the
Sweet Sixteen...
I know that I have three
of the names... And
three of the names are...
gold, grains... and
natural gas.
Gold goes to $1600...
Wheat and corn to $16...
and natural gas... also to
$16...
. . . .
.
You see, we have our own
March Madness here... in
the stock market.
It's part of the reason
that I see these
commodities, and their
associated stocks, going
much higher!...
I believe that the pros
are, right now, mindlessly
craving three groups of
stocks... because the
earnings estimates are too
low... way too low.
And, remember, that is the
single-biggest factor in
trying to figure what
stocks are going to go
higher... what stocks that
have estimates too low,
that then get beat!
That's what people want!
. . . .
.
Tonight, I'm going to give
you three... one stock per
group... including
some changes, by the way,
in a group that I have
liked very much...
I think these offer the
single-best opportunities
right now, in a very
choppy
tape... as we know
from what happened...
First, how do we figure
out what big money
wants?... What they
want to do is they want to
buy winners... That's
literally what they do, so
they look at the stocks
that have worked so far
this quarter, and then
they buy them!...
Don't laugh. It is
that simple...
. . . .
.
My first theme is
agriculture... a
twice-blessed group of
stocks that benefit from a
developing global famine,
and our government's
somewhat farcical
commitment to using a fuel
that takes too much energy
to make, costs too much to
transport, and is totally
unwanted by everyone,
except primary voters in
Iowa!...
Ethanol!...
Forget the fact that it's
doing nothing to keep the
price of gasoline down...
This combination is
sending
ag commodity prices
through the roof...
My prediction, in terms of
the Sweet Sixteen?...
Corn... I think corn goes
to $16...
I think wheat goes to
$16...
I believe they're both
headed to $16 a
(bushel)...
The
ag stocks worked in
January and February...
and, you know what?...
That's it! That's
all you need to know!
And these stocks should
keep working in March,
thanks in no small part to
our government's decision
to crucify humanity on a
cross of corn...
. . . .
.
Out of my
Fab Five
of Agriculture Stocks...
Agrium (AGU),
Deere (DE),
Monsanto (MON),
Mosaic (MOS)
and
Potash (POT)...
these are the best stocks
in the group... I
think you now have got to
switch gears...
I think you now want
Potash (POT)...
down $1.54 today, and
almost $20 from its
high...
It represents a better
bargain here than MOS...
Still a fave, but not as
good when it comes to the
soaring commodity prices
for fertilizer and for
grains...
. . . .
.
This baby's the largest
producer, by capacity, of
potash, nitrogen, and
phosphate... three
essential ingredients in
any good aromatic
fertilizer... and you
better believe farmers
can't get enough of this
stuff worldwide, with
prices for wheat, corn,
soybeans... you name it...
going sky high and going
higher.
Fertilizer prices are
soaring... but it still
makes sense for farmers to
pay up, and increase their
crop yields. If you
don't believe me, by the
way, I want you to go to
either the MOS or the POT
websites... Both of
them have fantastic,
fantastic descriptions on
what's going on right now,
in terms of why the
farmers still need to pay
up, and why it's worth it.
The
Potash Site (PDF file
with these pricing
arguments will open in new
window
here) is really
brilliant. The CEO's
really smart...
. . . .
.
The fertilizer industry,
despite its smell, is a
great business to be #1
in, because the barriers
to entry are so high...
It costs at least $2.5
billion to build a
greenfield mine, and start
making potash. And
that excludes the
skyrocketing costs of
associated infrastructure
around the plant...
Even better, it would take
5-7 years to bring a new
mine to market, and anyone
making that investment
would have to wait a long
time to even generate
positive cash flow...
No one's going to get in
it! No one's coming
in to compete...
High barriers to entry,
the lowest cost producer,
a seemingly-endless supply
of products... This
is miraculous
combination!...
You're not going to find
it in tech or in drugs...
You're not going to find
it in banks, you're not
going to find it in
defense... You're
not going to find it in
homebuilding...
And, it's especially sweet
now that wheat is going to
$16... my opinion...
and farmers need all the
fertilizer they can get
their hands on...
. . . .
.
Which is why, even though
we've got a global famine,
and not enough fertilizer
to go around, no new
projects for making potash
have been announced...
Strange, right?... You
think they would have...
It gets even better...
POT is actually one of the
few producers of potash,
the commodity... It can
actually increase
capacity. They plan
on upping capacity from
10.7 million tons to 15.7
million tons by 2012.
It's like if
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
could suddenly double
production just because
oil's at $103 (a
barrel)... but they can't!
XOM doesn't have excess
capacity... POT, on
the other hand, is sitting
on it!
. . . .
.
Plus, we shouldn't have to
worry about POT's
numbers... Whew... they
already just reported a
blowout,
better-than-expected
quarter in January, when
they raised guidance for
this quarter, and all of
2008...
The new consensus is that
they'll grow earnings at a
spectacular 107% this
year.
Now, we don't usually like
to pay up for a commodity.
We don't pay a higher
multiple... We're paying
22x earnings. With
that kind of growth
though, I've got to tell
you, I think it's not that
expensive.
If this $157 stock traded
up to a multiple that was
just half its growth rate,
which is the legal limit
of how much we'll pay in
Cramerica... I hesitate to
tell you how high it will
go... oh, why not!...
$383!
It isn't unrealistic, when
you consider this is a
multi-year move.
One last thing...
POT announced a mighty
buyback in January... 5%
of their shares over the
course of 2008... So, not
only do I think POT is
cheap... (but) management
couldn't agree more with
me.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Don't take unnecessary
risks. Buy what's
already been working.
Stick with ag! Stick
with
Potash (POT)!
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
|
|
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
|
|
 |
This holiday's
hottest tech
item... The
Flip!...
Completely
tape-free
amazing
60-minute
camcorder for
less than $200 -
great for young
and old!
(and still in
stock)
more details >> |
|
Most popular
investing books ordered:
(click any book to see at
Amazon.com) |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
We need your help!
If you find our service valuable, your
donation is critically helpful to support
our operating costs and is
MUCH appreciated!
(click below to donate) |
We are serving thousands
of
new visitors every day and our costs are
growing as well. Thank you for your
support & generosity!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
|
| |
|
■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
|
| |
|
| |
|
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|
 |
POT |
157.36 |
158.48 |
Potash
(POT)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
|
|
Opening Segment 2
Title: |
'Sweet Sixteen'
'Gold Standard' |
|
. . . .
. |
|
Featured Stock(s): |
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.
(AEM)
See AEM*'s official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
AEM
here.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
|
|
|
After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC:
There's a point about two
months into every year,
where the Street starts
committing to trends...
when money managers start
to make sense of the
market, and extrapolate
from what they saw in
January and February, to
try to predict what will
happen in March...
I know it sounds simple...
but, jeez... it's worked
so far. Let's take
it to the end... It's
worked for the last two
months... expect to profit
for all the way through
the rest of March, as more
and more money piles into
the rest of these stocks.
Don't forget, there's also
a self-fulfilling
prophecy... These funds
that are doing well, and
the stocks get more money
in... They buy their
own stocks again and
again... We
saw that at the end of
every quarter (i.e., see
Markups at
Cramerisms.com)...
. . . .
.
March Madness for the
market in 2008 is all
about agriculture, gold
and natural gas... three
groups I see headed for
their Sweet Sixteen...
I gave you the skinny on
ag, and now it's
gold's turn for its Sweet
Sixteen...
In this market, you have
to be willing to buy the
stocks in companies that
produce commodities, which
are rising in value...
Because, unlike buying say
a company that assured you
just a month ago that
business was good... Let
me pick two favorites...
VF Corp. (VFC)
and
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)...
these commodity companies
have earnings estimates
that were made by analysts
when the commodities they
produce were at much lower
prices...
A gold company reports a
month ago... the analysts
extrapolate at the current
price of gold... it goes
up more... the earnings
estimates are too low...
What that does is build in
upside... and it's what we
have in ag, and in gold...
But you also have to be
willing to buy stocks that
you might be unfamiliar
with...
. . . .
.
You see, earnings risk is
relatively nonexistent for
the gold companies right
now... People will
pay anything for a stock,
where there's hardly any
earnings risk... for one
of the themes that's been
working, and shows
continuing strength.
I see nothing holding
these groups back right
now. Ag is one of
those areas, and so is
gold.
. . . .
.
The ag complex is being
driven by soaring
commodity costs - wheat,
corn, soy...
And we believe in these
stocks, because we see the
commodity going higher.
Gold stocks... same!
And, just like I see wheat
and corn going to $16, I
see gold going from just
under $1000... to $1600 an
ounce...
I take my cue from Peter
Marrone... He's the
CEO of Cramer fave,
Yamana Gold
(AUY*).
It's what he said when he
came on the show. He
knows more than I about
gold...
When you have a CEO that
knows more about a
commodity than you do,
listen to him!... Because
you'll find out... that
was easy (button)...
. . . .
.
Just like ag, gold has
been working a long time,
and I've been pushing it
aggressively... at least
since I recommended
Yamana
(AUY*)
on
June 6th of 2006...
Gold's up 56% since then.
Hey, you know what?
AUY* is up more than 100%.
That's good...
After that kind of run,
you want to be asking, hey
wait a second... What's
the next Yamana?
I own AUY* for
my charitable trust. I'm not
selling it, but I think
the answer... the gold
stock I would start buying
right now, if I didn't own
one... is
Agnico-Eagle Mines
(AEM).
If you agree with me, and
think that gold cannot be
stopped... that it's
headed for the Sweet
Sixteen hundred (i.e.,
$1600 an ounce)... that
used to mean something...
then AEM is the perfect
fit...
. . . .
.
Now, I brought the CEO of
AEM on the show
Friday, and I liked
what he had to say.
This is a gold miner
that's not only expanding
its production... five new
mines are coming online...
so production is expected
to grow five-fold, from
230,000 ounces in 2007, to
1.3 million ounces in
2010...
It's also the
second-cheapest producer.
Only AUY* has lower costs.
. . . .
.
I bring on CEOs all the
time, and I am telling
you, this was the first
time in three years of
doing this show, that I
was so impressed with the
interview, that I wanted
to come back to you
literally the next day,
and recommend this stock
in response...
When I booked him, I
didn't know how good the
story was. When I
heard it, and when I
studied it, I said,
this... this is a stock
people should own...
because, frankly, gold
stocks themselves are
cheap, versus the
commodity.
Do you know the whole
market cap of the gold
stocks - all of them - is
only $200 billion.
That's way too small...
It can go much higher
before this move is over.
. . . .
.
Let's do some relative
compares...
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
has a market cap alone of
$469 billion.
General Electric Co. (GE)
- parent company of this
network - $334 billion...
Microsoft (MSFT),
$251 billion... But
the whole AMEX Gold Index
is only around $200
billion...
Can you imagine?...
All the stocks together
are worth much less than
Exxon?... See,
I think that $200 billion
could double to $400
billion, with the price of
the commodity doubling.
So, you need one...
You missed AUY*?...
(Buy)
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.
(AEM)...
. . . .
.
Now, what gives AEM an
edge right now?...
That the company's
completely unhedged...
It basically means it
doesn't have any insurance
against the price of gold
dropping. It's
full-bore gold...
On the one hand, that
means that, if gold goes
higher, AEM's your best
bet.
On the other hand, they've
got nothing to offset a
decline in gold prices.
So, if you don't think
gold's going higher, this
one isn't for you.
That would do more to
damage this stock than
almost any competitor in
the game.
. . . .
.
Since I see gold going to
$1600, I'm willing to take
the risk and buy AEM.
Oh, by the way, new
news... The gold
company comes with a side
of uranium...
Today, AEM made a pretty
savvy investment, buying
13% of Forum Uranium.
As uranium pulled back
from its ridiculous highs
just a couple of months
back, the market for
uranium and for nukes - as
in nuclear power plants -
is growing, and uranium
prices should keep going
higher...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Gold should definitely be
going higher. I
think Peter Marrone at
Yamana Gold Inc.
(AUY*)
is right. Peter -
please, accept my apology
in advance but, right now,
the money should be
committed, after this run
that AUY's had, to
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.
(AEM).
. . . .
.
| |
|
| |
|
■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
|
| |
|
|
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|
|
AEM |
71.51 |
72.40 |
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.
(AEM)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from
tonight's show
here >>
See current quotes on Yahoo!
Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >> |
|
Symbol keys: |
|
 |
A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >> |
|
|
Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself. |
|
 |
Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself. |
|
 |
Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
|
 |
Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about. |
|
|
|
|
|
Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms": |
|
 |
Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back... |
|
|
Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you. |
|
|
Definition: 'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock). |
|
|
Definition: 'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
| |
 |
See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >> |
|
|
|
|
|
Helpful Websites: |
|
|
See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com |
|
|
|
|
|
See the stocks currently
known to be in Warren
Buffett's portfolio
of
stocks at:
warren-buffett-portfolio.com |
|
|
|
|
|
Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
StockHomework101.com
This site is coming soon.
Thank you. |
|
|
|
|
|
FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.
Fast Money Recap - Trades
for next day...
Compare these picks to Jim's
comments for the same
stocks. |
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
© 2005-2007 MadMoneyRecap.com ■
Important disclaimer: This site is
not affiliated with Mr. James
Cramer, and is not associated with
any television networks or
broadcasts. Please note that all
thumbs up or thumbs down
indicators are not always clearly
indicated on the show and are
interpreted by us as accurately as
possible. Some comments have been
edited for brevity and clarity,
and extraneous material omitted. Please rely on watching
the show yourself, doing
your own homework,
and reading the text of the
comments to draw your own
conclusions. Also, data presented
on this site should not be used to
make investment decisions and
accuracy, although attempted,
cannot be guaranteed. Please
consult with your own financial
advisor for professional advice. |
|
|
 |
|
|
