Tuesday, 07/08/08
Posted 07/08/08,  10:07 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Tuesday, 07/08/08

  Dow Jones: 11,384  + 152
  NASDAQ:   2,294   + 51
  S&P 500:   1,273    +21
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
   
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Shoot From The Hip'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

Smith & Nephew PLC (SNN)

See SNN's official website here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for SNN here.


See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

JJC:   I just want a few more days like today. The market staged a back from the dead rally today... One of the few in what seems like ages... So many times we have seen rallies look fabulous at the beginning, only to fail later in the day and we choke on everything we bought... Not today... Today, for the first time, we were rewarded if we pulled the trigger with fabulous pit action... And I think that's because we've got some new leaders, some new leaders top business models, so to speak... And to beleaguer, and belabor the teen play at NBC issue, one ripped from the front pages, but not necessarily from the newspapers, no the "Cramerican Marine Field Guide to Recessions... Right on schedule... The drug and healthcare stocks that were so hated just one weak ago are the very stocks that went up today and of course the stocks we are featuring all week on Mad Money... Remember, Wall Street is a vicious and mercurial fashion show... At times like this, when the economy is weak and the global economy seems like it's teetering, Uh, well... The big money guys, who are the critics and the buyers of the ready to wear stuff at the fashion show will tend to decide that stocks with safety and consistency, yeah that's right, boring ones, were all over the runway... And momentarily, the commodity plays get shoved into the sidelines...

I think the safest and most consistent group in this environment of high energy prices, yeah, I know they came in little today, high raw costs, and economy that is doing the dead man's floats despite the 150 Dow Jones move... The best one, is the group I started yapping about yesterday and will continue to highlight, some say tap, some may promote, I don't care...

Every day this week it's going to be healthcare... It's generally immunized against those energy prices and I still consider the price of oil to be high after the $10 swan dive of the last few days or high grain prices, yeah, I see them coming down too, but it ain't that much, or an economy that is flatlining, and a financial system that showed a bit of a pulse today, but otherwise has been DNR, as in "do not resuscitate"... These healthcare stocks, even the ones I don't like, are right now worth owning... As money managers swap out of less dependable sectors, that had been , and into relative safety, and boredom of healthcare stocks... Now drugs, the drug stocks had been in a vicious and horrible bear market, as measured by the pharma-index, called the DRG, uh huh drug, aren't we great on Wall Street, which fell from $355 in early January to as low as $283 on June 11th... But now the index be flying!... Ho, ho... Buy, buy, buy... Closing at $305, and showing that healthcare is back and bigger than ever, just like Ghandi two... You might not have seen that movie...

Remember, it is all perception... It's the fashion show... The big boys like this group now, versus others because they fear the more exciting mineral and oil plays may not be able to meet expectations... Put aside whether you think they can or not for a moment... What I need you to understand is the fashion show, and the big boys are comfortable with these new stocks... Even if they really are the same old, same old, really with now pizzazz... The stocks that went up the most today, nothing changed for them... You could be sitting there saying wow, hey, what happened to Merck (MRK)?... What's going on with Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY)?... There is nothing, except for the fact that the big boys feel more comfortable... This (bear) was Bristol-Myers last week... This (bull) is Bristol-Myers today... Oh, and before I can give you what could be the next big healthcare winner... Can I just say point blank, right here, right now, that the only thing that can immunize you from the vicissitudes of this really crazy fashion show is diversification... See, if you just own nothing but the first half of the year's winners, oil and gas, you know what would have happened in the last few days... You would have been blown away... A diversified portfolio with some healthcare in it to offset a commodity loser could keep you in the game... The ultimate goal, if we were to keep on gunning, for the American Dream... Oh, 7 o'clock Sunday night, on NBC, for those who want to catch my Nascar network special... Shameless?... Who cares... Alright, so for tonight's healthcare play, I give you a guy and his nephew...

Uh, more precisely, Smith & Nephew PLC (SNN)...

This one is a medical equipment company that got beheaded after a disappointing first quarter... Sinking from $64.73 on April 30th at the close to $57.40 on May 1, the day after it reported... Hey, that's an 11% drop, and it's languished down in the $50's ever since... Closing today at a mere $52 and change, this one hasn't been recognized other than Cramer... The Street is overreacting to that quarter and shunning what I think is an otherwise good company... It gives you a chance to get in a great stock at a much too low price that hasn't been swept up in this incredible rotation of the last three days... SNN has it's hands in several different businesses... 37% of their sales come from orthopedic reconstruction, hip and knee replacement... Good business to be with our aging, weight gaining population, even if SNN is the number 4 player in the business... Boy, I'll tell you, if I were number 1, 2 or 3, I'd snap these guys up... Both Smith and his nephew...

SNN also has an orthopedic trauma business where they make the equipment doctors need to help deal with bone fractures and other trauma... These are generally stable businesses, because doctors don't like to change their suppliers... Then SNN has an endoscopy business, making the tools for minimally invasive surgeries that let doctors look around their patients... You've seen this a million times on House, I mean, on ER... And then, finally, there's SNN's advanced wound management business, this is really my favorite... It's part of a happy Duopoly with ConnetiConcepts selling wound VAC equipment... $1.6 Billion market for that equipment... Creates a low pressure environment to help wounds heal more quickly, and with less risk of infection, get people out of the hospital quickly... That's the story for both democrats and republicans... Now, uh, what happened with the missed quarter?... And why do I think SNN will make or beat the numbers in the future based on the fact that they screwed up... It's a tale of two acquisitions... Last March SNN bought a Swiss-based company, an orthopedics company, it's called Plus, and another company they bought called BlueSky in the middle of 2007, which is how it got into that nifty wound vac business, the duopoly... When SNN reported its quarter it turned out that there were some skeletons in the closet at PLUS, causing $100 million in sales costs and $10 million in investigational costs because of it... Here's some language, "unacceptable selling practices"... Woo, with PLUS... Look, I don't think it's a big deal, okay?... Compared to the $3.37 billion in revenues the company brought in 2007... But nonetheless, the stock got pummeled... Partly because again, no one wanted this, they were too busy chasing the Wildcatters... Uh, that's the first reason...

The second is that the expectations for the second company SNN acquired, BlueSky, were way too high... When SNN bought BlueSky last year it had 20 employees and it was generating just $11 million in sales... So, SNN had to spend some moolah to build up the sales force and ramp up manufacturing... That aided to the performance of its wound care segment... The Street didn't like this, but I don't know how they didn't see it coming, frankly. Sometimes they just get it wrong... Now we've got a stock that is just incredibly beaten down... But I believe it has spent the money it needs to expand this wound business and remember it's only competitor is KCI, we've had them on this show, we like this... SNN expects to see the benefits from its spending the second half of the year, which just so happens to be, right now!... I think the bad news is all in the past... And even with that so called bad quarter, SNN still managed to deliver 14% earnings per share growth... So now we have what I think is an incredibly cheap play on the aging of America with its orthopedics business with what it looks like now an up and running advanced wound care division with the potential to deliver serious growth that should only have to deliver so-so results for the Street to be impressed, lowered expectations, disappointing quarter... Oh, I should add, SNN has a terrific 3-year $1.5 billion buyback... Don't forget, these healthcare stocks have been out of favor for so long that it's only like they believe, and you didn't... They've repurchased $640 million of stock, while you ignored it... Not too shabby for a $9.4 billion company, very shareholder-friendly.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Healthcare is back, it's bigger than ever, and I think Smith & Nephew PLC (SNN) is one of the most undervalued, underestimated and, I think, underpriced stocks in the group... for those who are trying to build a diversified portfolio that doesn't just include fertilizer and oil.

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


SNN

52.84

na

Smith & Nephew PLC (SNN)



     

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



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Second Segment
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'Don't Bank On It'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

Comments from Jim as a call to action for the government to help prevent a financial collapse.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

.  .  .  .  .


JJC:    We're constantly seeing stocks go down because someone spread this, someone said that, some rumor on the tape, some guy got on tv and said something bad, some company announces this or that, then another company put out a press release... Uh, but I don't want to get too Simon and Garfunkel on you... What we don't hear discussed that much at all are the stocks that go down on the sounds of silence... Hello, no news flow, my friend. Yeah, that's two... It's too bad, it's too bad... Because right now there are a lot of stocks going down on the sounds of silence...

The banks, the brokers, the homebuilders... The three groups, frankly, that make up the Achilles' heel of this market... They've been falling, not because of anything anyone said, despite stories you might have heard in paper that so and so CEO says this, that there's rumors being spread... Uh, uh... No... I think they're going down because none of the right people are saying anything, nor are they backing anything up with buy backs or anything substantive... I am bringing this up tonight, yes, I am bringing up the financials because at last, these stocks are in rally mode and I am not a pile on guy, I am not a guy who does that kind of stuff where they throw the flags and jumping on and stomping on guys fingers and bodies and stuff... No... See I didn't want to offer up negatives right into a panic... That's not my style... I like to wait... And I have waited... It's taken me forever, but I have waited until we get some uptake in the banks and brokers to take action... Lordy, we got it today... And I bet you'll get a follow through, a follow through to today's explosive action to financials tomorrow...

So you can at last debate their merits and consider what I'm about to say in a positive atmosphere, for once... It's been so clouded and toxic, it reminds me of that little breaststroke competition I once had in the Love Canal... Alright, despite the positive run ups today in the banks and brokers, I believe we could still be facing, I believe we are facing some big financials collapses, and not just the small ones... Not just these little regional banks that you hear about like the Isely brothers, whatever that thing is out there... Don't worry about it, that's an old group... I'm old, alright?... I'm truly worried about the fundamentals of Citigroup, of Bank of America, with what I think will end up being considered an ill-fated acquisition of Countrywide, I am as you know, concerned about the viability of the largest savings and loan, look what a statesman I've become, huh... Well down here I've become a statesman...

When I was out at USC I was telling people to quit work at Washington Mutual before the posse came... But I'm now just saying that I'm concerned, I'm concerned about Washington Mutual... I fret over Wachovia, especially given its incredible decline, lack of permanent CEO... But what do I hear?... I hear nothing... I hear total silence from these companies... Now all I know is that they have unclear losses and unclear balance sheets in an environment where home prices are still deteriorating rapidly... We've got silence from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the true Simon and Garfunkel of the joint... We've got silence from Lehman, other than some squawking that the shorts are at fault... Well, I almost bought that logic... We've got silence from Merrill, except for the occasional sentence, the occasional whiff that they might be selling some bomber or something... And worst of all, we've got silence, more frightening than the silence of the lambs from any of the actors in federal government, who could have taken action and so far haven't... I think our government will need a plan, a definitive plan for when these banks start to fail again, but all I hear about is silence, and silence is deafening... Just a whisper of a plan... How about a vague rumor?... Some slight hint that someone in the government is doing something to avert, or at least deal with what will happen when a couple of giant banks collapse... That's all I think we really need is some assurance, that will give this group and the market some relief so the stocks can go higher and they can issue more equity so they are in less trouble... But right now you could hear a pin drop... Let me be clear... I am no longer ranting and raving about saving the financials like I did in that Stop Trading Segment I did that was such a hit on YouTube... Now, I have come to accept that despite my meltdown, when something could have been done then, the fed did get on the stickle later... But it no longer has control over this bank situation by their own admission... I mean, they've basically told you they're done cutting, which means the die is cast and now I think the real bank failures are around the corner...

Again, I am sensitive to the fact that the stocks are going up right now, so you can take action... I am not a pile on guy, kicking them when they're down, giving them the business, alright?... Right now I'm saying that for things to get better we need to start hearing from the feds about their plan for averting the financial apocalypse, and I don't mean some Sunday night conference call to save Bear Sterns... I don't need anything that's done on the fly, I need something planned... Because I'm afraid, I think the Street is afraid that they have no plan, just like they had no plan when this whole mess started... Or maybe they don't believe in a plan... Maybe they think it's like the potato famine in 1847... That the Irish figured it out themselves... That didn't work... I don't think the banks will be able to do it on their own... There seems to be no way they'll be able to raise all the capitol they need... Who the heck wants to give Lehman or Merrill Lynch another dime, after the beatings that everyone has done and has taken... This is like four times bitten, twice shy... You can only be so stupid... The mutual funds that own these banks have taken horrendous losses and concomitant redemptions... The big outside investors have been crushed, and now they have scrambled eggs on their faces... Make mine sunny side up... For making the stupid decision to invest in these banks, Sovereign Fund Investors, they've been completely pantsed by greedy sales people who told you this is the last injection... I think we need the government to round up the usual buyers right now, if there are any usual ones... We need them to round them up in a cool moment, to be ready to merge with the banks that I believe are going to fail, before everything starts to fall apart in the heated moment that may be coming...

We need to know that there's a short list of willing and ready buyers from around the globe as we had in 1990, the last financial meltdown... We need to know that they're more than just JP Morgan out there that's ready to take a swing... I believe even a whisper of a plan like this would help this market tremendously... You want to know how bad it is?... You want some numbers behind my dire pronouncements?... Okay, I'm ready, make me look stupid again... Alright, presto!... Back on August 3rd, I started a stress index with 12 stocks, roughly representing the homebuilders, the brokers, and the banks... I created the index to give me an idea of just how bad things were in the banking and housing complex... On August 3rd it started at 100... The Mad Money stress index is now at 20... That's an all time low that it hit today, it touched 18 today... Meaning that the stocks in this group have fallen an average of 80% already, and I'm not saying anything about things getting better, other than for this trade that started today... At least not until someone or something breaks the terrible sound of silence that I believe is pulling this group, and with it, the whole market, down... I do not have an answer for this problem, but I'm hoping someone in the government does... Now, I've told you about the bad, I don't want to leave you with the impression that nothing can be done... Not after a decline like this... Alright, did you see Matt Lower do that this morning?... No... Okay, particularly there are outfits like JP Morgan ready to do more buying... We learned that from CEO Jamie Dimond today... That was subtext... I felt when he said that the bear axis? is almost done that he's ready to roll... Now, I actually liked what I heard for the first time in a long time from treasury secretary Hank Paulson, about how important Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are... It made me feel that they're not going to go away entirely... But what we need to hear is that the federal government still stands behind these organizations, and will remain so and give us an explicit guarantee, not the implicit one as long as Americans need homes... Oh, and most importantly, we need to hear the following words from Shelia Behr, from the FDIC or I'll take them from treasury, I'll even take them from under the undercycle belt, I'll take them from Bob Steel... And the words we need to hear, and they don't even have to do it for a biattribution... They can just leak it, okay?... The words we need to hear are "we have large bank buyers who want in, and we have plans for them to be able to contain the losses of the crushed banks they buy". That statement, even if given off the record, somehow, filleted through, it would be big... But my question is, do they have the buyers?... In my view, the problem is nothing is being done, or at least nothing is being talked about... I think of all this, all this could get better... Not fixed, but better, if we heard some word, or some kind of plan from the feds to find buyers to merge with the banks that I believe will fail in the not too distant future...

Oh, and here's one that really just dazzles me... How can both presidential candidates completely ignore this issue?... Do they not know it?... This one, this is the biggest issue facing the American economy... Instead they focus on tax cuts... That didn't work with the last guy... Tax cuts... There's no solution at all... Maybe both of these guys were out to chow... come on guys, don't wait until we on Wall Street blow chow... Come up with plans.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      I've laid out a grim picture. That's okay, the market is going up right now... But I think that after this phenomenal 80% decline from last summer, all it will take to improve things is someone in a position of authority to break the silence and say, yes we have a plan, yes we're doing something to make sure that the banks collapse... They will at last do something as smoothly and with as few repercussions as possible... Without it, while there's not much room between here and the floor, we will be visiting sometime way too soon.

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


na

na

na

Comments from Jim as a call to action for the government to help prevent a financial collapse.

 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
Helpful Websites:
  See the stocks currently known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:

jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com

 
See the stocks currently known to be in Warren Buffett's portfolio
of stocks at:

warren-buffett-portfolio.com

 
  Stock Homework 101:   This is an excellent upcoming site that provides resources and links to help you do that homework that Jim Cramer recommends after hearing his suggestions...

StockHomework101.com

This site is coming soon.   Thank you.

 
  FastMoneyRecap:   This site will be a quick summary of recommendations made by the great Fast Money TV show crew, that will offer you a unique service, to compare their picks to Jim Cramer's past comments about those stocks.

Fast Money Recap - Trades for next day...

Compare these picks to Jim's comments for the same stocks.

 

 

   
   
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