Wednesday, 07/16/08
Posted 07/17/08,  08:37 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Wednesday, 07/16/08

  Dow Jones: 11,239 + 276
  NASDAQ:   2,284   + 69
  S&P 500:   1,245   + 30
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
   
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Man with a Plan'

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Featured Stock(s):

No specific stock picks.

General comments.


See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

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JJC:   Yeah, hallelujah... A rally... Is it just another rally in a bear market?... Is it just another chance to sell?... Or, has something changed?... I think a couple of things have changed... And they are for the better... But as you will soon see, it isn't enough to give us more than a nice little bump to reposition yourself and then no more... But, let's bask in the glory for a second... How about the reasons for this beautiful day in the market... First, a bank, holy cow a bank, a bank reported a better than expected number and raised its dividend... And that bank is sometimes something that we've recommended, and waffled on... That bank is Wells Fargo (WFC), riding to the rescue... And it matters... It matters because it gives us a bank that can help sell this miserable, pathetic, banking system of ours that scares us every day and makes us think maybe our deposits aren't safe... Wells Fargo (WFC), by virtue of its breath, not its bad or good breath, but because it can sell a lot of products to different customers, insurance sells, it makes a lot of fees... It can become what I call a survivor bank... I don't want it to be a sole survivor, which, by the way, was a great song... They came to my high school... A survivor bank... It can buy other bad banks like IndyMac Bancorp Inc. (IMB) and pass off the nonperforming loans to a new government agency... More on that in a moment... I'm just using my 1990 blueprint so it's not too farfetched... Remember, the blueprint I gave you the other night is the same one as 1990, splitting banks in half... A good part to keep and a bad part to sell, sell, sell... WFC can be used to buy what's left of the good ones by the government, which has to see, even this government, must have seen the action today...

The second cause for the 277-point rally, crude... Looks like oil can not get past through 150, our original price target on oil... We can't seem to exceed it... And you know what that means?... It means we will not see $5 a gallon... It means we probably will see for the first time in ages, gasoline prices lower next week... It means you will no longer be a human punching bag at the pump... That means retail could have a summer windfall, more important than any tax rebates until you saw those stocks ramp... Finally, we had a tech report a good number... Intel (INTC)... And not that it was great that the stock bumped up... But it did make people think, end of the world?... I don't know, maybe it'll fall out of the way for a while... INTC can make a heck of a lot of people feel better because every time you smash anything an INTC chip falls out, and I smash a lot of things, believe me... So these all added up to a nice move up 277 points worth that put us all in the deserving happy, good mood... Particularly the 27% of market professionals polled who are bulls... That's the lowest reading in the index I can ever recall... The fewest number of bulls... The survey comes out every Wednesday, and I've never seen it, I've never seen that few people who like the market...

Okay, it's all well and good... No doubt aided today by short sellers, who are in complete panic mode and are scared to death suddenly of the SEC, because they might be indicted for banging down stocks and crushing them... You know, the U.S. government well maybe they woke up... And if they don't let up, and they keep leaning on the financials, I think the hedge funds are going to be in a lot of trouble... Now the questions is... How can we be sure that the market, and the US economy stays on track and doesn't do this... How do we get out of a situation where we have one step up like we had today and then two steps back... By the way, that's the pattern ever since the federal reserve decided in its infinite wisdom that economy had gotten good again and it was done cutting rates... All right, that move killed the financials by the way, especially Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac... Of course, no one knocked the fed except for me, because, you see, I'm not nice...

Okay, tonight I'm offering a play... A 3-part plan to make the gains today permanent, or at least make an end for the bear market and the making of the next bull market... I'm going to flush out my 3 point plan that some of you have caught in less detail on the TODAY show this morning... Okay, it's not a simplistic plan, nor does it start with terrible things like we need a recession or we need a strong dollar... Hey listen, when you got to the Wal-Mart (WMT*), I got to tell you something, they don't care if it's a strong or weak dollar... Or lower taxes... Some of the ideals... Those have already tried... They no working, as my little girl when she was four say, no working daddy... Okay, none of those matter because they don't really address the problems that are causing the gloom and indeed doom that we have every day here... See, we've got three problems, the banking and housing mess, sky high food inflation and energy prices that need to come down permanently... These are really putting the squeeze on you, okay, or regular people... If policy makers would just listen to me, wow, what an arrogant guy... Sad clown, happy clown... They could solve these problems and let us return to the American Dream without having to spend all that money... In fact, my plan could even save the government money... See, this makes it some no one takes me seriously... Which is, well, part of my style...

All right, so what do we have to do to get the American dream back on track, besides put make up on here so you can't see my pimples now that they've been pulled off?...

Tonight I'm going to use the good mood of otherwise very grumpy market, one where we had a rare respite, I always thought that was respite until I got to this show, to the regular great American companies to save the American economy... All right, let's just flush out my 3 point plan to do it so that some of you who caught in less detail on the TODAY show this morning know what I'm talking about... It's not as simplistic... For instance, unlike what some people would say, we don't need a recession... We don't need a strong dollar I mean, please, lower taxes, those don't matter... Because they don't address the fundamental problems that are causing this endless trashing and gloom and indeed do...

You see, we have three problems...

The banking housing mess, that goes on despite Wells Fargo (WFC), sky high food inflation, it goes on despite a small, small decline in the grains, and energy prices that need to come down permanently, not like the two day decline that we had... These all are putting the squeeze on regular people, on you, okay?... But if policy makers would just listen to me, they could solve these problems and let us return to the American dream without having to spend all that money... In fact, my plan is actually probably going to give you money back, that's right, save the government money... So what do we have to do get the American dream back on track?... First, we need to establish what I'm calling a resolution mortgage trust... People don't really realize this, but you know it's only two years of mortgages, those that were taken between 2005 and 2007 when fed chairman Fred Bernanke was looking the other way after he became fed chair, they're the problem... It's about roughly, it's about 4 million homes... Now, I don't think all of them are going on bust... Now, the fed needs to create a resolution trust with a $300 billion bond issue... Now, it only needs to be two year paper... You just issue two year paper, and American people buy it because that's how long I think it will take to sort out this mess... Now we already have something going on away from the good banks like WFC, which just told us things were fine today, and it's got plenty of capital... Sorting themselves out from the bad banks... But most of the banks there have both good and bad parts, the bad parts being all those horrible loans on the balance sheet...

So what the government has to do is use the $300 billion mortgage resolution trust, okay that's my idea, to buy the bad loans... Now, I don't think we should pay more than $.70 cents on the dollar to the banks on that... I think that will save the American banking system and believe me, despite the gains in today's market it is failing... If it were done the way I envision, it would be easy, fast and at no cost to the American taxpayer, because I don't believe we'll have more than 30% failures on these mortgages... I think I'm being very conservative... People want to stay in their homes, they want to fight for them... The creation of a resolution mortgage trust for those who are still left in their homes and haven't just been booted or squatters, I think that could make you a fortune, and save the banking system... The vast majority of homeowners will make good on their mortgages...

For the banks that aren't too big to fail, we can bundle up all their good parts and sell them to a bank like WFC, that has the capacity and the willingness to buy the good parts... While my mortgage trust takes the heinous parts of their balance sheet at $.70 cents on the dollar, okay?... That gets it done... If we don't do this I predict that most of the regional banks will fail once the line start... Hey, by the way, it won't shock me for hedge funds, who do a lot of fear mongering and shorting to hire actors to poise as panicked depositors waiting in lines at regional banks before they opened... Hedge funds have done worse... That's how easy I think you could wreck the system right now... Every bank could be a single digit stock, and the only thing that's left will be deemed too big to fail, with a handful like WFC, that responsible and didn't make bad loans surviving... I'm a responsible guy... I waited for a really good day, a day where even the financials were up to make these dire pronouncements about the possible fate of the banks if the fed takes no action... This is the right time to talk about how to fix things, now when the stocks are up, not piling them on when they're down... I don't like to do that when you're taking a shellacking... I would never come out here and say this on a day when the financials were hammered... I don't want to be the cause for the very collapse I'm trying to prevent and I definitely don't want every man, woman, and child in the country blaming me, Jim Cramer for the great bank run or panic of 2008... I already have enough people who don't like me... thank you very much... And again, because it's a good day, I said the other day that your deposits are safe in banks...

Now let me throw in a caveat...

They're safe, if you keep them under $100,000 per person... If you have more than that, please take action, I know, I am... Step 1... Step 2... Scrap ethanol... Scrap it, for heavens sake... I want a 50% decline in the most nefarious kind of inflation out there, the kind that hits people the hardest, where they really could use a break... Food inflation... There's an easy way to do it, scrap the Illinois, Iowa corn ethanol mandate... That's right, our food for oil plan, which requires 30% of our corn, the basic feed for cows and poultry to make 3% of our gasoline... I believe scrapping this mandate, scrapping it, could cause an immediate decline in prices, perhaps as much as 50%, in the chicken and beef you buy at the supermarket... How easy is that, the stroke a pen... I believe food prices could stop strangling the pocketbooks of American families... That would take the pressure off of the fed, allowing the fed to cut rates, okay?... Inflation, no longer raging... Now, finally, the third step... The one that will help us on the energy front, emphasize natural gas, politicians don't seem to realize that we've discovered enormous amounts of natural gas in the country in diverse places like Pennsylvania, New York, Kentucky, West Virginia, the Dakotas, Colorado and Wyoming, in the last five years, where it's all safe and ready to drill... And there aren't environmental issues like other alternative fuels pose... If our own government emphasizes it, if we say that we're making our fuel to power cars and all new power plants, they've got the habit... That's the only coal plant older than 20 years, really noxious ones have to be scrapped... I believe we will bring down the price of oil right now as natural gas is 50% cheaper than oil... We will create jobs, increase energy security and make it so the skies are cleaner... I do believe oil has topped out at $150... I do think that natural gas remains the fuel of the future, made even more attractive by its sudden decline in price over the last two weeks... One has created by the way, opportunities galore... This is not a stock segment, but once again Chesapeake (CHK), right back in, back to where it just made its huge stock offer... Almost all of which produced dramatic gains.

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The Bottom Line!:     In my view, none of these more than a stroke of the pen... None of them is radical or should cost the taxpayers money in the end... All are doable... Call me crazy, if you think we can end the madness that easily, but I'm convinced that my 3 point plan to restore the American Dream will work, if only somebody is listening... Otherwise, be happy for a couple of good days in the market, and then retreat right back into your fallout center.

 

   
 

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