|
|
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
● |
|
|
 |
| |
| |
 |
| |
|
| |
Wednesday, 07/16/08
Posted 07/17/08, 08:37
am ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
|
| |
| |
|
Today's date:
Wednesday, 07/16/08 |
|
| |
Dow Jones: |
11,239 |
+ 276 |
| |
NASDAQ: |
|
2,284 |
+ 69 |
| |
S&P 500: |
|
1,245 |
+
30 |
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Man with a Plan' |
|
. . . .
. |
|
Featured Stock(s): |
No specific stock picks.
General comments.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
|
|
|
After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC: Yeah,
hallelujah... A rally...
Is it just another rally
in a bear market?... Is it
just another chance to
sell?... Or, has something
changed?... I think a
couple of things have
changed... And they are
for the better... But as
you will soon see, it
isn't enough to give us
more than a nice little
bump to reposition
yourself and then no
more... But, let's bask in
the glory for a second...
How about the reasons for
this beautiful day in the
market... First, a bank,
holy cow a bank, a bank
reported a better than
expected number and raised
its dividend... And that
bank is sometimes
something that we've
recommended, and waffled
on... That bank is
Wells Fargo (WFC),
riding to the rescue...
And it matters... It
matters because it gives
us a bank that can help
sell this miserable,
pathetic, banking system
of ours that scares us
every day and makes us
think maybe our deposits
aren't safe...
Wells Fargo (WFC), by
virtue of its breath, not
its bad or good breath,
but because it can sell a
lot of products to
different customers,
insurance sells, it makes
a lot of fees... It can
become what I call a
survivor bank... I don't
want it to be a sole
survivor, which, by the
way, was a great song...
They came to my high
school... A survivor
bank... It can buy other
bad banks like
IndyMac Bancorp Inc.
(IMB) and
pass off the nonperforming
loans to a new government
agency... More on that in
a moment... I'm just using
my 1990 blueprint so it's
not too farfetched...
Remember, the blueprint I
gave you the other night
is the same one as 1990,
splitting banks in half...
A good part to keep and a
bad part to sell, sell,
sell... WFC can be used to
buy what's left of the
good ones by the
government, which has to
see, even this government,
must have seen the action
today...
The second cause
for the 277-point rally,
crude... Looks like oil
can not get past through
150, our original price
target on oil... We can't
seem to exceed it... And
you know what that
means?... It means we will
not see $5 a gallon... It
means we probably will see
for the first time in
ages, gasoline prices
lower next week... It
means you will no longer
be a human punching bag at
the pump... That means
retail could have a summer
windfall, more important
than any tax rebates until
you saw those stocks
ramp... Finally, we had a
tech report a good
number...
Intel (INTC)... And not
that it was great that the
stock bumped up... But it
did make people think, end
of the world?... I don't
know, maybe it'll fall out
of the way for a while...
INTC can make a heck of a
lot of people feel better
because every time you
smash anything an INTC
chip falls out, and I
smash a lot of things,
believe me... So these all
added up to a nice move up
277 points worth that put
us all in the deserving
happy, good mood...
Particularly the 27% of
market professionals
polled who are bulls...
That's the lowest reading
in the index I can ever
recall... The fewest
number of bulls... The
survey comes out every
Wednesday, and I've never
seen it, I've never seen
that few people who like
the market...
Okay, it's
all well and good... No
doubt aided today by short
sellers, who are in
complete panic mode and
are scared to death
suddenly of the SEC,
because they might be
indicted for banging down
stocks and crushing
them... You know, the U.S.
government well maybe they
woke up... And if they
don't let up, and they
keep leaning on the
financials, I think the
hedge funds are going to be
in a lot of trouble... Now
the questions is... How
can we be sure that the
market, and the US economy
stays on track and doesn't
do this... How do we get
out of a situation where
we have one step up like
we had today and then two
steps back... By the way,
that's the pattern ever
since the federal reserve
decided in its infinite
wisdom that economy had
gotten good again and it
was done cutting rates...
All right, that move
killed the financials by
the way, especially Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac... Of
course, no one knocked the
fed except for me,
because, you see, I'm not
nice...
Okay, tonight I'm
offering a play... A 3-part plan to make the
gains today permanent, or
at least make an end for
the bear market and the
making of the next bull
market... I'm going to
flush out my 3 point plan
that some of you have
caught in less detail on
the TODAY show this
morning... Okay, it's not
a simplistic plan, nor
does it start with
terrible things like we
need a recession or we
need a strong dollar...
Hey listen, when you got
to the
Wal-Mart (WMT*), I got to
tell you something, they
don't care if it's a
strong or weak dollar...
Or lower taxes... Some of
the ideals... Those have
already tried... They no
working, as my little girl
when she was four say, no
working daddy... Okay,
none of those matter
because they don't really
address the problems that
are causing the gloom and
indeed doom that we have
every day here... See,
we've got three problems,
the banking and housing
mess, sky high food
inflation and energy
prices that need to come
down permanently... These
are really putting the
squeeze on you, okay, or
regular people... If
policy makers would just
listen to me, wow, what an
arrogant guy... Sad clown,
happy clown... They could
solve these problems and
let us return to the
American Dream without
having to spend all that
money... In fact, my plan
could even save the
government money... See,
this makes it some no one
takes me seriously...
Which is, well, part of my
style...
All right, so
what do we have to do to
get the American dream
back on track, besides put
make up on here so you
can't see my pimples now
that they've been pulled
off?...
Tonight I'm going
to use the good mood of
otherwise very grumpy
market, one where we had a
rare respite, I always
thought that was respite
until I got to this show,
to the regular great
American companies to save
the American economy...
All right, let's just
flush out my 3 point plan
to do it so that some of
you who caught in less
detail on the TODAY show
this morning know what I'm
talking about... It's not
as simplistic... For
instance, unlike what some
people would say, we don't
need a recession... We
don't need a strong dollar
I mean, please, lower
taxes, those don't
matter... Because they
don't address the
fundamental problems that
are causing this endless
trashing and gloom and
indeed do...
You see, we
have three problems...
The
banking housing mess, that
goes on despite
Wells Fargo (WFC), sky
high food inflation, it
goes on despite a small,
small decline in the
grains, and energy prices
that need to come down
permanently, not like the
two day decline that we
had... These all are
putting the squeeze on
regular people, on you,
okay?... But if policy
makers would just listen
to me, they could solve
these problems and let us
return to the American
dream without having to
spend all that money... In
fact, my plan is actually
probably going to give you
money back, that's right,
save the government
money... So what do we
have to do get the
American dream back on
track?... First, we need
to establish what I'm
calling a resolution
mortgage trust... People
don't really realize this,
but you know it's only two
years of mortgages, those
that were taken between
2005 and 2007 when fed
chairman Fred Bernanke was
looking the other way
after he became fed chair,
they're the problem...
It's about roughly, it's
about 4 million homes...
Now, I don't think all of
them are going on bust...
Now, the fed needs to
create a resolution trust
with a $300 billion bond
issue... Now, it only
needs to be two year
paper... You just issue
two year paper, and
American people buy it
because that's how long I
think it will take to sort
out this mess... Now we
already have something
going on away from the
good banks like WFC, which
just told us things were
fine today, and it's got
plenty of capital...
Sorting themselves out
from the bad banks... But
most of the banks there
have both good and bad
parts, the bad parts being
all those horrible loans
on the balance sheet...
So
what the government has to
do is use the $300 billion
mortgage resolution trust,
okay that's my idea, to
buy the bad loans... Now,
I don't think we should
pay more than $.70 cents
on the dollar to the banks
on that... I think that
will save the American
banking system and believe
me, despite the gains in
today's market it is
failing... If it were
done the way I envision,
it would be easy, fast and
at no cost to the American
taxpayer, because I don't
believe we'll have more
than 30% failures on these
mortgages... I think I'm
being very conservative...
People want to stay in
their homes, they want to
fight for them... The
creation of a resolution
mortgage trust for those
who are still left in
their homes and haven't
just been booted or
squatters, I think that
could make you a fortune,
and save the banking
system... The vast
majority of homeowners
will make good on their
mortgages...
For the banks
that aren't too big to
fail, we can bundle up all
their good parts and sell
them to a bank like WFC,
that has the capacity and
the willingness to buy the
good parts... While my
mortgage trust takes the
heinous parts of their
balance sheet at $.70
cents on the dollar,
okay?... That gets it
done... If we don't do
this I predict that most
of the regional banks will
fail once the line
start... Hey, by the way,
it won't shock me for
hedge funds, who do a lot
of fear mongering and
shorting to hire actors to
poise as panicked
depositors waiting in
lines at regional banks
before they opened...
Hedge funds have done
worse... That's how easy I
think you could wreck the
system right now... Every
bank could be a single
digit stock, and the only
thing that's left will be
deemed too big to fail,
with a handful like WFC,
that responsible and
didn't make bad loans
surviving... I'm a
responsible guy... I
waited for a really good
day, a day where even the
financials were up to make
these dire pronouncements
about the possible fate of
the banks if the fed takes
no action... This is the
right time to talk about
how to fix things, now
when the stocks are up,
not piling them on when
they're down... I don't
like to do that when
you're taking a
shellacking... I would
never come out here and
say this on a day when the
financials were
hammered... I don't want
to be the cause for the
very collapse I'm trying
to prevent and I
definitely don't want
every man, woman, and
child in the country
blaming me, Jim Cramer for
the great bank run or
panic of 2008... I already
have enough people who
don't like me... thank you
very much... And again,
because it's a good day, I
said the other day that
your deposits are safe in
banks...
Now let me throw
in a caveat...
They're
safe, if you keep them
under $100,000 per
person... If you have more
than that, please take
action, I know, I am...
Step 1... Step 2... Scrap
ethanol... Scrap it, for
heavens sake... I want a
50% decline in the most
nefarious kind of
inflation out there, the
kind that hits people the
hardest, where they really
could use a break... Food
inflation... There's an
easy way to do it, scrap
the Illinois, Iowa corn
ethanol mandate... That's
right, our food for oil
plan, which requires 30%
of our corn, the basic
feed for cows and poultry
to make 3% of our
gasoline... I believe
scrapping this mandate,
scrapping it, could cause
an immediate decline in
prices, perhaps as much as
50%, in the chicken and
beef you buy at the
supermarket... How easy is
that, the stroke a pen...
I believe food prices
could stop strangling the
pocketbooks of American
families... That would
take the pressure off of
the fed, allowing the fed
to cut rates, okay?...
Inflation, no longer
raging... Now, finally,
the third step... The one
that will help us on the
energy front, emphasize
natural gas, politicians
don't seem to realize that
we've discovered enormous
amounts of natural gas in
the country in diverse
places like Pennsylvania,
New York, Kentucky, West
Virginia, the Dakotas,
Colorado and Wyoming, in
the last five years, where
it's all safe and ready to
drill... And there aren't
environmental issues like
other alternative fuels
pose... If our own
government emphasizes it,
if we say that we're
making our fuel to power
cars and all new power
plants, they've got the
habit... That's the only coal
plant older than 20 years,
really noxious ones have
to be scrapped... I
believe
we will bring down the
price of oil right now as
natural gas is 50% cheaper
than oil... We will create
jobs, increase energy
security and make it so
the skies are cleaner... I
do believe oil has topped
out at $150... I do think
that natural gas remains
the fuel of the future,
made even more attractive
by its sudden decline in
price over the last two
weeks... One has created
by the way, opportunities
galore... This is not a
stock segment, but once
again
Chesapeake (CHK), right back in,
back to where it just made
its huge stock offer...
Almost all of which
produced dramatic gains.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
In my view, none of these more than
a stroke of the pen... None of them is
radical or should cost the taxpayers
money in the end... All are doable...
Call me crazy, if you think we can end
the madness that easily, but I'm
convinced that my 3 point plan to
restore the American Dream will work, if
only somebody is listening... Otherwise,
be happy for a couple of good days in
the market, and then retreat right back
into your fallout center.
| |
|
| |
|
■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
|
| |
|
|
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|

|
na |
na |
na |
No specific stock picks.
General comments.
|
|
| | | | |