|
|
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
● |
|
|
 |
| |
| |
 |
| |
|
| |
Thursday, 07/24/08
Posted 07/25/08, 09:07
am ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
|
| |
| |
|
Today's date:
Thursday, 07/24/08 |
|
| |
Dow Jones: |
11,349 |
- 283 |
| |
NASDAQ: |
|
2,280 |
- 45 |
| |
S&P 500: |
|
1,252 |
- 29 |
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Disney's World' |
|
. . . .
. |
|
Featured Stock(s): |
Walt Disney Co. (DIS)
See DIS's official
investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
DIS
here.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
|
|
|
After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC: On
days like today, days when
the market is hideous,
days when the Dow Jones
Industrial average
plummets 283 points, the
most in a month... It's
hard to believe that
happier days will ever,
ever be here again... at
least this year...
Today, the bank stocks
gave up the ghost after an
amazing run, as traders
took advantage of their
huge gains to rip through
the register and short
sellers worked the rumor
magic on financials big
and small, particularly
those without fortress
balance sheets,
Citigroup (C),
American International Group
(AIG),
Merrill Lynch
(MER),
Lehman Brothers
(LEH),
nare-do-well,
Washington Mutual (WM)...
This was the day when
people talked about demand
destruction and chaos
throughout the western
world...
As if today's chaos is
different from any other
day's chaos... On days
like this, we forget that
there are actually some
big positives lurking...
How about the $300 billion
going to the FHA, which
will service our new
mortgage resolution trust,
not unlike the 1990's
resolution trust... Except
this time, we bail out the
banks and the individuals
with mortgages they can't
pay, not the commercial
mortgages that crushed the
banks in the days of
your... Oh, we forget on
these miserable days the
fact that most
importantly, gasoline is
coming down, and coming
down hard... That's why
tonight, in the midst of
this hard shroud of gloom,
we want to think about a
company that lower
gasoline prices would
benefit the most... Do you
mind if, just for a
moment, I dust the bears
off my shoulders, and
suggest that you buy a
stock, forget this, let me
spring a concept on you, I
know it's just the long
term...
Remember that?... A
company that again and
again keeps knocking the
knockdown by pessimism...
This stock is probably the
most harangued and beaten
up every time the gasoline
goes up...
And it is the stock of the
Walt Disney Co. (DIS)...
Yeah, Walt Disney... DIS
reported a miracle quarter
earlier in the year, yet
many of the big analysts
turned their backs on it
because, you guessed it,
rising gasoline prices,
skyrocketing airfares...
Now we suggested it, if
you just want our
bonafides... We suggested
you buy DIS before that
last quarter, and that was
one of the great, great
opportunities, thank you
very much... As the
pessimists were just dead
wrong... And we're going
back to the well... We
think they're going to be
wrong again and here's
why... Just when everyone
thinks that Disney's world
is too expensive to travel
to, we've got a timely
piece this week from my
buddy-pal-friend, Rich
Greenfield, at Pally
research, telling us the
wonder of wonders, I kid
you not, auto traffic to
Disneyworld is actually
strong... The bears sure
aren't factoring that one
in, they're only counting
the airplanes... All
right, listen to this, it
makes sense... I want you
to get in my head with the
49 other people and
understand why in the
midst of a horrible day I
could ever think about
anything positive... And
I'm turning some obvious
negatives into
positives...
Think about it, most
Americans, you can't
afford to go overseas to
go on vacation, why?...
Because of the week
dollar... At the same
time, that weak dollar is
making Disneyland and
Disneyworld cheap for
foreigners... It's become
an inexpensive family
vacation for everybody
compared to a lot of other
destinations, especially
if you factor in another
issue, room rates... Room
rates are relatively much
cheaper than they were
during the last down turn,
the 1990-1991 recession...
Now, 75% of Disneyworld's
hotel rooms are in the
moderate or value price
category... In 1991, 55%
were in the premium
price... Look, this is not
a ridiculous idea... The
casino stocks were all up
on big on the perspective
declining gasoline, even
after the savage beating
they took today... DIS's
done virtually nothing,
it's up like about a point
in the same timeframe...
Lehman (LEH)
just downgraded DIS
because of the economy and
ABC, which the analyst
there says it's just like
the rest of the networks,
it's just not true... It's
got a larger entertainment
footprint... It's got
ESPN, still the best area
in broadcasting, because
it can't be TIVO'd... And
doesn't the LEH guy
recognize that gas prices
are about to come down,
making DIS a cheaper
destination?... Most
analysts are way behind
the curve... I don't think
you can afford to wait
until gas hits $3.50
before you buy DIS... We
think you have to buy this
stock right into a day
like today, where
everybody thinks the whole
big move we had is about
to repeal and we're back
in a world of disaster...
You've got to buy it right
into the negativity...
Just like the last time...
Yes, I want to be price
sensitive... I want to buy
it under $30... I hope we
can get it there... That's
a buck below where it went
out today... People
forget, by the way, that
DIS isn't just domestic
theme parks... You know,
DIS has got overseas
business... Properties in
Hong Kong and Paris, and
they're seeing double
digit attendance growth...
Once again, the weak
dollar is helping Disney,
because the currency
translation will boost
their numbers even
further... I'm talking
about a stock that
everyone's convinced has
to go down... And all the
reasons why they think so
is why it should be going
up... And I think that all
of this is really being
obscured by a fog of worry
about gasoline... How
about the fact that, how
is this affected by
gasoline?... DIS is the
premier creator of new
franchises, that work
regardless of the price of
premium unleaded... I'm
talking about franchises
like High School Musical,
okay... How about
something like Wall-E?...
All right, Pirates of the
Caribbean, yo ho, yo,
ho... Hannah Montana...
And Snow White!... The
Chinese may be able to
knock off the DVD's but
they can't knock off these
characters...
Merchandizing,
merchandizing...
Disney is a franchise
machine... Think about how
many hundreds of million
of dollars it takes for
Colgate or Unilever to
create and support a new
brand... Sometimes it
takes a billion dollars...
DIS can do it with a
fraction of the cost...
Some people would
analogize that DIS is kind
of a pharmaceutical
company with blockbuster
drugs and total patent
protection... DIS is like
a drug company... I belt
Walt's loving it... DIS
has also got a great CEO,
Bob Iger... I am a huge
fan... In my opinion, he's
navigated all these
downturns perfectly... Why
doesn't he ever get any
credit?... Why doesn't he
get credit now?...
And I think that's the
other thing that is
consistently overlooked
about DIS it's the one
stock I want every parent
to buy every kid for their
birthday and the holidays
when they're born...
Because I think it will be
the one they are
indoctrinated to from the
ages of 1-10, just as I
was... It is really
important on these gloomy
days to think about a
longer term position... I
said the same thing to
Regis and Kelly today, on
their fabulous show...
Kelly's got three kids...
Regis has a new
grandchild, trouble... And
I told them both, this is
the kind of negative
moment where you want to
sock in some DIS for the
kids... I myself, am an
old DIS hand... In fact, I
was among the first
visitors to Disneyworld,
when it opened there,
literally, and I have been
there 11 times and once to
Disneyland, just two years
ago... When I was a
reporter for the Tallacy
Democrat, I actually tried
to interview Mickey when
the place just opened... I
took offense when he was
silent, what did I
know?... A dozen trips
later and I still love the
place... That's got to
mean something, well not
really...
Anyway, with happier days
on the way when it comes
to gasoline, all right?...
The premier metric that
we're using, I think
you've got to take
advantage of today's price
that today's pessimism is
giving you.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
I think that on a really horrible
day like today,
Walt Disney Co. (DIS)
is one of the best ways to play one
trend that we've spotted that is
positive, lower gasoline prices... DIS
is a veritable franchise factory and
also a way to profit off of the weak
dollar... Led by Bob Iger, I don't know,
on a horrible day, what more could you
want?
| |
|
| |
|
■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
|
| |
|
|
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|

|
DIS |
31.02 |
na |
Walt Disney Co. (DIS)
|
|
|
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
|
Most popular
investing books ordered:
(click any book to see at
Amazon.com) |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
We need your help!
If you find our service valuable, your
donation is critically helpful to support
our operating costs and is
MUCH appreciated!
(click below to donate) |
We are serving thousands
of
new visitors every day and our costs are
growing as well. Thank you for your
support & generosity!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
|
| | | | |