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Thursday, 07/31/08
Posted 08/01/08, 11:03
am ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Thursday, 07/31/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
11,378 |
- 205 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,325 |
- 4 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,267 |
- 16 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Earth, Wind and
Profits?' |
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Owens Corning (OC)
Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN*)
MasTec Inc. (MTZ)
First Solar (FSLR)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC: Oh,
no... Ugly day... Down
206... Woo..
My bottom call must be
totally wrong... or it
would've been up today,
right?... I mean, if you
call a bottom, isn't it
never supposed to go down
again?... Wrong... Let's
understand each other...
and people are talking
about my bottom all day
today and I'm thrilled
that people are... but I
am saying that not that
things are going to go
right up, but that we are
not going to crash through
the vicious lows that we
saw on July 15th when it
looked like the western
world's banking system was
history... Remember
Bank of America (BAC)
all the way down,
Wachovia Corp. (WB)
was in the single
digits... when we saw
Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac, we thought they were
going to go into
oblivion... the day that
Indy Mac closed... no...
I'm saying that that's
history, not the banking
system... I am not saying
that every stock has
bottomed... far from it...
I am saying that the
sectors that I was most
worried about one year
ago... one year ago this
week, by the way, when I
allegedly went crazy...
but in retrospect went
sane... the banking and
housing groups have
bottomed, that's what I'm
saying... and because they
were really the worst
place that led us down,
the fact that they're
bottoming could lead to a
resumption of a bull
market...
A bottom is not a call for
major thrust toward 14,000
on the DOW... It is a call
that says you should buy
stocks as they come down
because happier days are
here again, courtesy of
the big commodity sell off
including oil, and what I
think in a way that last
year when I said that you
were guaranteed, on the
Today Show, I guaranteed
that if you bought a house
last year, this was a year
ago, I said you will lose
money... I am now telling
you that I am seeing the
coming end to rapid house
price depreciation... I
suspect tomorrow could be
a rough day when we get
that Labor department key
unemployment number... but
that's all consistent with
the kind of reports you
get at the bottom when
everyone was horribly
negative and worried...
Need I remind you that the
time to be horribly
negative and hysterical
was last year when it went
ballistic... Not now, when
the housing and oil
problems are finally
getting to be resolved...
Either way, bottom or no
bottom, you know what I'm
going to do?... I am going
to come out here every
night and try to make you
money in what I
acknowledge is a difficult
market, and will remain a
difficult market to
navigate... which brings
me to tonight's topic...
The Bonanza of getting the
environment back to the
way it was before we
burned all those nasty
carbons...
That's right... Green...
because green is starting
to make us money...
Something we tend to focus
on once a year, during
Earth Day or then,
remember, we extended it
to Earth week... We now
need to celebrate daily...
365 days a year... because
two of our gigantic eco
themes, wind and solar,
are now starting to make
money, and they're
starting to make money
hand over fist... and it's
not just subsidies... Now
when it comes to stocks,
every day is Green Day...
which should do wonders
for their album sales...
These wind and solar plays
are transcending the
weakness in oil... rather
amazing... Usually when
oil goes down, these all
go down... These are going
up despite the decline in
crude... And, I think we
will see that continue to
happen... As you know, I
am predicting oil is going
to trade below $120... By
the way, this whole
identification I have with
wind and solar has nothing
to do with Boone
Pickens... saying he wants
to raise an army to
pressure congress into
promoting wind, solar
power and natural gas...
and spending $58 million
on a media campaign to do
it... Although, I'm sure
that helps... and I am
willing to sign up for
that army... but only at
least if I can be a
burning coronel...
It's because the companies
involved in wind and solar
are starting to put up
great results long before
anyone expected it...
including me... and you
know how bullish I am on
these... Now, we love,
love, love, Boone
Pickens... He loves the
show... we love him... we
like all of his
analysis... but we
recognize that Obama could
win the White House... and
that's going to put the
wind behind the back of
wind... As well as
solar... So, if the bulls
are right... We could be
looking at four more years
of green profits...
On the wind side of things
we're starting to see
really popular results
from three members of...
remember this one... the
Windex... I sprayed this
at the camera last time
and that was bad... so I'm
not going to do it
again... well, maybe a
little... Okay, no...
The Mad Money Wind-Ex...
we devised it and we have
seen some spectacular
results... OC... Big
blowout yesterday, stock
well up from when we first
started talking about
it...
Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN*),
up 6.7% today... what a
magnificent quarter... And
MasTec Inc. (MTZ)...
these are all Wind-Ex
plays, okay?... That's up
a whopping 18.9% after
just a fantastic quarter,
that was partially driven
from its expansion into
building wind
infrastructure... Now, we
created the Wind-Ex out of
ten stocks back on May
29th... and then added an
11th, PWR, on July 15th...
The index started at
100... it's had a rocky
time, dipping to lows of
around 86, but then came
right back to 97, almost
back to even... and the
market has not been
good...
But now I think we've got
many more bullish reasons
beyond just Boone Pickens
to think that the wind
stocks have the wind at
their backs... A wind so
powerful that it is
overwhelming the other
businesses within these
companies that are just
doing okay... And in the
interest of full
disclosure... I like
Quanta Services Inc. (PWR*)
and
Trinity (TRN*)
so much I own them for
my charitable trust...
Owens Corning (OC)...
the OC, as I mentioned,
said some great things
about wind when it
reported its better than
expected quarter and how
do you like this?... a
company that's involved in
housing guided up on
Wednesday night... The
OC's CEO, and you know I
like him, says his
company's wind business is
growing in the high double
digits for the coming
decade... How about some
visibility?... we see
great numbers ahead... OC
makes composite materials,
with wind taking 10% of
its composite
businesses... as there are
18 tons of fiberglass per
windmill... You need a
tough material to make the
blades of a windmill...
some of which can have
wingspans the size of a
747... and they get very
hot... and only their
composite materials have
been shown to be able to
withstand it... some other
guys claim this... but
they've been able to
withstand a huge amount of
heat.
Trinity (TRN*),
the rail car company that
I like for its wind tower
business... which I
believe will eventually be
bigger than the rail car
biz... said it's wind
tower back log doubled
this quarter to $1.5
billion... Doubled... from
800 million just last
year... Wind made up 10%
of TRN's revenues this
quarter from 6% a year
ago... and the company is
working to convert two
rail car manufacturing
plants into wind power
plants... This is a total
transformational story...
and it's working out
exactly like we thought it
would... Even though the
rails, the rail car
business is not doing that
well...
How about solar?...
First Solar (FSLR)
is best of breed... It's
also the only one I will
ever recommend... And it
just reported a huge
beat... earning $.85 cents
a share when the Street
was looking for just $.58
cents... That's the
largest upside surprise
I've seen in this
reporting period... a $.47
cent upside surprise...
Along with this, they've
been doing way better than
expected with full year
guidance...
The company has finally
started to move its
traditional markets in
Europe... It's moving off
and most of its sales had
come from Germany... now
it's in the United States,
mainly California... This
year FSLR built a 7.5 mega
watt pile project in
California exhibit utility
scale systems... Remember,
FSLR is not the solar
panels in people roofs...
it's not individual... No,
we don't like that
business... One of the
reasons why I always say
nay to so many of the
solar businesses... This
is industrial scale solar
power... That's right onto
the grid, which is why I
like this one more than
every other one you ever
ask me about... Now it's
selling the pilot system
to SoCal and got approval
from the California public
utility commission for a
system that should start
production that should
start the first half of
2009... FSLR also has two
other pilot projects going
in California...
Let me reiterate why FSLR
is my favorite solar
play... This is the one
solar company that uses
cadmium telluride, rather
than polysilicon...
because the latter is much
more expensive... It costs
FSLR a $1.42 a watt to
manufacture it...
Polysilicon panels are
$2.50 a watt... The
company is looking to be
the first solar play that
offers un-subsidized solar
power by 2010... That's
right... no government is
going to have to pay it...
It's also ramping
production at it's plant
in Malaysia... they remind
me of Intel, they get
these plants done once
they start pumping out
things that just... the
cost just goes down, the
money goes up... It's that
they're adding 800
megawatts of capacity by
2009... Keep your fingers
crossed if they can do
it... Even better, the
manufacturing cost of this
plant is now $.90 cents a
watt, lower than its
average cost... FSLR has
also seen better than
expected results in France
and Italy... It expects to
see increased Italian
sales... I bet you they
get some Japanese sales...
By the way, solar power is
a whole lot more efficient
than Germany and these
other countries...
I think this is the
ultimate Barack Obama
stock... We know he loves
clean energy... I bet he
gives FSLR a call the
moment if he gets elected,
that he's in the White
house...
Now look... I like to give
you caveats... There is a
but here... With all these
solar and wind stocks...
and it's a big but... for
the 8th time congress has
delayed the investment tax
credit for solar and
wind... courtesy of filler
busting by the
Republicans... FSLR has
actually said it can't get
involved in some US
projects until this credit
is in place... and without
it, the wind industry
risks losing about $11
billion in investment...
Whoa... That's it... I
don't think there is any
reason to panic... These
tax credits are expected
to eventually pass... And
there will be at least a
one year extension that
occurs in September after
congress recess...
That said, if somehow the
investment tax credit
doesn't pass, I think it
will hurt solar more than
wind... as wind is a much
cheaper form of renewable
energy and has things
going at the state level
in places like Texas that
I think should promote
investment even if the
feds don't...
Even FSLR said some US
projects will go forward
even if they don't get tax
credits... I really think
that they'll be given at
least the one year
extension... I'm telling
you it's not a problem...
especially since the Dems
are expected to pick up a
bunch of senate seats in
November...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
I think the case for investing in
wind is being made... I want you to
think
Owens Corning (OC),
Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN*)
and
MasTec Inc. (MTZ)...
And I still think that solar has legs...
primarily
First Solar (FSLR)...
That one has never been better... It's
green day every day from now on in in
Cramerica.
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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OC |
22.53 |
na |
Owens Corning (OC)
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TRN |
16.68 |
na |
Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN*)
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MTZ |
35.45 |
na |
MasTec Inc. (MTZ)
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FSLR |
285.03 |
na |
First Solar (FSLR)
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