Thursday, 07/31/08
Posted 08/01/08,  11:03 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 07/31/08

  Dow Jones: 11,378  - 205
  NASDAQ:   2,325   -  4
  S&P 500:   1,267   - 16
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
   
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Earth, Wind and Profits?'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

Owens Corning (OC)
Trinity Industries Inc.
(TRN*)
MasTec Inc.
(MTZ)
First Solar
(FSLR)

See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

JJC:    Oh, no... Ugly day... Down 206... Woo..

My bottom call must be totally wrong... or it would've been up today, right?... I mean, if you call a bottom, isn't it never supposed to go down again?... Wrong... Let's understand each other... and people are talking about my bottom all day today and I'm thrilled that people are... but I am saying that not that things are going to go right up, but that we are not going to crash through the vicious lows that we saw on July 15th when it looked like the western world's banking system was history... Remember Bank of America (BAC) all the way down, Wachovia Corp. (WB) was in the single digits... when we saw Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, we thought they were going to go into oblivion... the day that Indy Mac closed... no... I'm saying that that's history, not the banking system... I am not saying that every stock has bottomed... far from it... I am saying that the sectors that I was most worried about one year ago... one year ago this week, by the way, when I allegedly went crazy... but in retrospect went sane... the banking and housing groups have bottomed, that's what I'm saying... and because they were really the worst place that led us down, the fact that they're bottoming could lead to a resumption of a bull market...

A bottom is not a call for major thrust toward 14,000 on the DOW... It is a call that says you should buy stocks as they come down because happier days are here again, courtesy of the big commodity sell off including oil, and what I think in a way that last year when I said that you were guaranteed, on the Today Show, I guaranteed that if you bought a house last year, this was a year ago, I said you will lose money... I am now telling you that I am seeing the coming end to rapid house price depreciation... I suspect tomorrow could be a rough day when we get that Labor department key unemployment number... but that's all consistent with the kind of reports you get at the bottom when everyone was horribly negative and worried... Need I remind you that the time to be horribly negative and hysterical was last year when it went ballistic... Not now, when the housing and oil problems are finally getting to be resolved...

Either way, bottom or no bottom, you know what I'm going to do?... I am going to come out here every night and try to make you money in what I acknowledge is a difficult market, and will remain a difficult market to navigate... which brings me to tonight's topic... The Bonanza of getting the environment back to the way it was before we burned all those nasty carbons...

That's right... Green... because green is starting to make us money... Something we tend to focus on once a year, during Earth Day or then, remember, we extended it to Earth week... We now need to celebrate daily... 365 days a year... because two of our gigantic eco themes, wind and solar, are now starting to make money, and they're starting to make money hand over fist... and it's not just subsidies... Now when it comes to stocks, every day is Green Day... which should do wonders for their album sales...

These wind and solar plays are transcending the weakness in oil... rather amazing... Usually when oil goes down, these all go down... These are going up despite the decline in crude... And, I think we will see that continue to happen... As you know, I am predicting oil is going to trade below $120... By the way, this whole identification I have with wind and solar has nothing to do with Boone Pickens... saying he wants to raise an army to pressure congress into promoting wind, solar power and natural gas... and spending $58 million on a media campaign to do it... Although, I'm sure that helps... and I am willing to sign up for that army... but only at least if I can be a burning coronel...

It's because the companies involved in wind and solar are starting to put up great results long before anyone expected it... including me... and you know how bullish I am on these... Now, we love, love, love, Boone Pickens... He loves the show... we love him... we like all of his analysis... but we recognize that Obama could win the White House... and that's going to put the wind behind the back of wind... As well as solar... So, if the bulls are right... We could be looking at four more years of green profits...

On the wind side of things we're starting to see really popular results from three members of... remember this one... the Windex... I sprayed this at the camera last time and that was bad... so I'm not going to do it again... well, maybe a little... Okay, no...

The Mad Money Wind-Ex... we devised it and we have seen some spectacular results... OC... Big blowout yesterday, stock well up from when we first started talking about it... Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN*), up 6.7% today... what a magnificent quarter... And MasTec Inc. (MTZ)... these are all Wind-Ex plays, okay?... That's up a whopping 18.9% after just a fantastic quarter, that was partially driven from its expansion into building wind infrastructure... Now, we created the Wind-Ex out of ten stocks back on May 29th... and then added an 11th, PWR, on July 15th... The index started at 100... it's had a rocky time, dipping to lows of around 86, but then came right back to 97, almost back to even... and the market has not been good...

But now I think we've got many more bullish reasons beyond just Boone Pickens to think that the wind stocks have the wind at their backs... A wind so powerful that it is overwhelming the other businesses within these companies that are just doing okay... And in the interest of full disclosure... I like Quanta Services Inc. (PWR*) and Trinity (TRN*) so much I own them for my charitable trust...

Owens Corning (OC)... the OC, as I mentioned, said some great things about wind when it reported its better than expected quarter and how do you like this?... a company that's involved in housing guided up on Wednesday night... The OC's CEO, and you know I like him, says his company's wind business is growing in the high double digits for the coming decade... How about some visibility?... we see great numbers ahead... OC makes composite materials, with wind taking 10% of its composite businesses... as there are 18 tons of fiberglass per windmill... You need a tough material to make the blades of a windmill... some of which can have wingspans the size of a 747... and they get very hot... and only their composite materials have been shown to be able to withstand it... some other guys claim this... but they've been able to withstand a huge amount of heat.

Trinity (TRN*), the rail car company that I like for its wind tower business... which I believe will eventually be bigger than the rail car biz... said it's wind tower back log doubled this quarter to $1.5 billion... Doubled... from 800 million just last year... Wind made up 10% of TRN's revenues this quarter from 6% a year ago... and the company is working to convert two rail car manufacturing plants into wind power plants... This is a total transformational story... and it's working out exactly like we thought it would... Even though the rails, the rail car business is not doing that well...

How about solar?... First Solar (FSLR) is best of breed... It's also the only one I will ever recommend... And it just reported a huge beat... earning $.85 cents a share when the Street was looking for just $.58 cents... That's the largest upside surprise I've seen in this reporting period... a $.47 cent upside surprise... Along with this, they've been doing way better than expected with full year guidance...

The company has finally started to move its traditional markets in Europe... It's moving off and most of its sales had come from Germany... now it's in the United States, mainly California... This year FSLR built a 7.5 mega watt pile project in California exhibit utility scale systems... Remember, FSLR is not the solar panels in people roofs... it's not individual... No, we don't like that business... One of the reasons why I always say nay to so many of the solar businesses... This is industrial scale solar power... That's right onto the grid, which is why I like this one more than every other one you ever ask me about... Now it's selling the pilot system to SoCal and got approval from the California public utility commission for a system that should start production that should start the first half of 2009... FSLR also has two other pilot projects going in California...

Let me reiterate why FSLR is my favorite solar play... This is the one solar company that uses cadmium telluride, rather than polysilicon... because the latter is much more expensive... It costs FSLR a $1.42 a watt to manufacture it... Polysilicon panels are $2.50 a watt... The company is looking to be the first solar play that offers un-subsidized solar power by 2010... That's right... no government is going to have to pay it... It's also ramping production at it's plant in Malaysia... they remind me of Intel, they get these plants done once they start pumping out things that just... the cost just goes down, the money goes up... It's that they're adding 800 megawatts of capacity by 2009... Keep your fingers crossed if they can do it... Even better, the manufacturing cost of this plant is now $.90 cents a watt, lower than its average cost... FSLR has also seen better than expected results in France and Italy... It expects to see increased Italian sales... I bet you they get some Japanese sales... By the way, solar power is a whole lot more efficient than Germany and these other countries...

I think this is the ultimate Barack Obama stock... We know he loves clean energy... I bet he gives FSLR a call the moment if he gets elected, that he's in the White house...

Now look... I like to give you caveats... There is a but here... With all these solar and wind stocks... and it's a big but... for the 8th time congress has delayed the investment tax credit for solar and wind... courtesy of filler busting by the Republicans... FSLR has actually said it can't get involved in some US projects until this credit is in place... and without it, the wind industry risks losing about $11 billion in investment... Whoa... That's it... I don't think there is any reason to panic... These tax credits are expected to eventually pass... And there will be at least a one year extension that occurs in September after congress recess...

That said, if somehow the investment tax credit doesn't pass, I think it will hurt solar more than wind... as wind is a much cheaper form of renewable energy and has things going at the state level in places like Texas that I think should promote investment even if the feds don't...

Even FSLR said some US projects will go forward even if they don't get tax credits... I really think that they'll be given at least the one year extension... I'm telling you it's not a problem... especially since the Dems are expected to pick up a bunch of senate seats in November...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     I think the case for investing in wind is being made... I want you to think Owens Corning (OC), Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN*) and MasTec Inc. (MTZ)... And I still think that solar has legs... primarily First Solar (FSLR)... That one has never been better... It's green day every day from now on in in Cramerica.

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


OC

22.53

na

Owens Corning (OC)


TRN

16.68

na

Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN*)


MTZ

35.45

na

MasTec Inc. (MTZ)


FSLR

285.03

na

First Solar (FSLR)

 

 



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