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  Thursday, 08/14/08
Posted 08/15/08,  11:22 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 08/14/08

  Dow Jones: 11,615   +  82
  NASDAQ:   2,453   +  25
  S&P 500:   1,292   +   7
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
   
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Shopper's Guide'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)

See RL's official investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for RL here.

See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


Jim:    All week, we've been talking about the best stocks that reported the biggest earnings beats of the quarter.  There was Jones Apparel (JNY) with that fabulous CEO Wes Card, and that great CEO, John McClain...  Tyco International Ltd. (TYC), what a quarter...  Orbital Sciences Corp. (ORB)...

And, today, I'm adding a new name, Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL), to that list...

And don't forget what kind of list it is...  It's a shopping list, for heaven's sake!...

Do not dare... do not dare to purchase one of these stocks tonight! It's just supposed to be bought at lower prices!...

These are not stocks to buy now. They're stocks to buy when they fall to a level when the price is right.

I can't be there to tell you when to buy them. See, because most of the time, and the reason why I've been emphasizing this series, it's that it's intraday trading. The market is so crazy that, if I wait until after the bell to tell you to buy RL... No!... I need you to buy it intraday when the market goes down, so I'm giving you this list of ideas now, with the prices where you should buy them.

And I am telling you to keep you're Mad Money bat on your shoulder, until you get the right pitch, or price... which, in the case of RL, is under $70... with the stock currently at $73.05... up $3 on the continued rally of apparel and retail, spurred by lower gasoline prices. I absolutely forbid you... to buy now, or tomorrow, as I expect the stock to be brought lower by the slings and arrows of this outrageous market sooner or later. It will go lower. You've got to believe me...

.  .  .  .  .

RL is an old-time Cramer fave...

I recommended it back on January 31st, when the stock was at $60... a 20% gain, if you got in at my price. We've always liked RL as a high-end retailer with great execution, and it's ability to repurchase the licensing rights to its products all over the world. This company had a really bad strategy, and they're undoing the strategy... that's why it keeps going higher.

.  .  .  .  .


Now I'm coming back to RL because of the quarter it reported last Wednesday. It was a thing of beauty and really blew people away. See, Wall Street was looking for RL to earn 72 cents per share...

Man, oh man... did they ever under-estimate the power of Polo!...

The actual earnings came in at 93 cents a share, a 29% beat. The quarter was powered by double-digit growth in Europe, and good inventory management, as the company cut inventories by 6%, which meant that they didn't have to cut price on as much merchandise. The price of inventories and how much you've got sitting in a store is like a stock... If everybody wants to sell a stock, it goes lower. If everybody wants to sell merchandise, the stock in the store goes lower...

Even though RL beat by 21cents, the company only raised its 2008 guidance by 5 cents, which means they're being very conservative about the second half. I'm not so conservative...

Gas prices... you know I think they're going to $3.50 (per gallon) in the next two weeks. The Fed is free to cut rates, now that the specter of inflation has been exorcised and annihilated.

Happier days should be here again for this retailer. But there's nothing wrong with some under promising for some future over delivery.

.  .  .  .  .


RL is all about execution... in retail, it's the difference between success and failure. What do I mean when I say execution?... All right, in 2000, RL started buying back these licenses... remember, I told you that they shouldn't have done it to begin with... from distributors in Europe, and selling its products directly... which grew European revenues from $150 million, to just around $1 billion.

Now, the company wants to mirror the strategy in Asia, where most of its money comes from licensing. They're already buying back their children's and golf licenses in Japan, and now control three quarters of RL-related business there. It's a big brand name over there.

If the results of this strategy in Asia are anything close to what they were in Europe, it's going to mean big bucks for years for RL...

In Europe, RL is reducing its exposure to low-quality distribution partners, focusing on the ones that can carry a wider variety of the company's apparel at higher prices. That's why their sales per square foot in Europe are 50% higher than in North America.

This company also has tremendous growth opportunities in these countries that I always mention... you've got to understand, this is where the money's being made... in India, in Russia, in China... all places where people (now) have more money in their pockets and want to spend it conspicuously on things like clothes that make them feel rich. The desire to look good may be the grease of the wheels of capitalism, but the desire to feel wealthy is what makes these wheels turn. And, boy, are the people in Russia wealthy these days...

.  .  .  .  .

I also think we could be seeing a lot of upgrades here. Right now, the analysts don't like the stock. They don't understand the new business model... they don't understand the power of buying back all of these licenses... 5 buys, 8 holds on the stock... Morgan Keeting just upgraded to a buy... I think many of these holds will follow. They're all looking for an apparel stock to get behind. They'll get this one.

Plus... can I just say... that this 63-year-old... guy wears Ralph Lauren... I got this Ralph purple label (pointing to the suit jacket he is wearing)... a decade ago... maybe even longer... and it still looks great, doesn't it? An 11-year-old thing... I mean, how else do you think I got rich? By buying new suits every year? Hardly! By wearing the same suit every year... that's the trick to great wealth! (wink)...

Right now, RL is trading at 15.9x earnings with a 14.3% growth rate... not expensive... but I think we can get a better price, and that's what counts. If the stock trades as low as the growth rate, down to 14.3x earnings... $65-$68... that would be such a gift.

Now, I know you probably won't be able to get it below $70, but this is where the real strength is...

By buying on weakness, it's the best way to make a really good idea pay off. Remember, the series is not just about the biggest beats. It's about how to buy them, particularly in a treacherous market.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)'s quarter may have been stupendous, but you'd be stupid to pay up for it here.  Keep the stock on your shopping list, and wait until it pulls back below $70, and then I want you to pull the trigger.

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


RL

73.05

na

Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)

Price target to buy:  Below $70.00


     

 

 



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