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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Shopper's
Guide' |
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Featured Stock(s): |
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)
See RL's official
investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
RL
here.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
Jim:
All week, we've been
talking about the best
stocks that reported the
biggest earnings beats of
the quarter. There
was
Jones Apparel (JNY)
with that fabulous CEO Wes
Card, and that great CEO,
John McClain...
Tyco International Ltd. (TYC),
what a quarter...
Orbital Sciences Corp.
(ORB)...
And, today, I'm adding a
new name,
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL),
to that list...
And don't forget what kind
of list it is...
It's a shopping list, for
heaven's sake!...
Do not dare... do not dare
to purchase one of these
stocks tonight! It's just
supposed to be bought at
lower prices!...
These are not stocks to
buy now. They're stocks to
buy when they fall to a
level when the price is
right.
I can't be there to tell
you when to buy them. See,
because most of the time,
and the reason why I've
been emphasizing this
series, it's that it's
intraday trading. The
market is so crazy that,
if I wait until after the
bell to tell you to buy
RL... No!... I need you to
buy it intraday when the
market goes down, so I'm
giving you this list of
ideas now, with the prices
where you should buy them.
And I am telling you to
keep you're Mad Money bat
on your shoulder, until
you get the right pitch,
or price... which, in the
case of RL, is under $70...
with the stock currently
at $73.05... up $3 on the
continued rally of apparel
and retail, spurred by
lower gasoline prices. I
absolutely forbid you...
to buy now, or tomorrow,
as I expect the stock to
be brought lower by the
slings and arrows of this
outrageous market sooner
or later. It will go
lower. You've got to
believe me...
RL is an old-time Cramer
fave...
I recommended it
back on January 31st,
when the stock was at
$60... a 20% gain, if you
got in at my price. We've
always liked RL as a
high-end retailer with
great execution, and it's
ability to repurchase the
licensing rights to its
products all over the
world. This company had a
really bad strategy, and
they're undoing the
strategy... that's why it
keeps going higher.
Now I'm coming back to RL
because of the quarter it
reported last Wednesday.
It was a thing of beauty
and really blew people
away. See, Wall Street was
looking for RL to earn 72
cents per share...
Man, oh man... did they
ever under-estimate the
power of Polo!...
The actual earnings came
in at 93 cents a share, a
29% beat. The quarter was
powered by double-digit
growth in Europe, and good
inventory management, as
the company cut
inventories by 6%, which
meant that they didn't
have to cut price on as
much merchandise. The
price of inventories and
how much you've got
sitting in a store is like
a stock... If everybody
wants to sell a stock, it
goes lower. If everybody
wants to sell merchandise,
the stock in the store
goes lower...
Even though RL beat by
21cents, the company only
raised its 2008 guidance
by 5 cents, which means
they're being very
conservative about the
second half. I'm not so
conservative...
Gas prices... you know I
think they're going to
$3.50 (per gallon) in the
next two weeks. The Fed is
free to cut rates, now
that the specter of
inflation has been
exorcised and annihilated.
Happier days should be
here again for this
retailer. But there's
nothing wrong with some
under promising for some
future over delivery.
RL is all about
execution... in retail,
it's the difference
between success and
failure. What do I mean
when I say execution?...
All right, in 2000, RL
started buying back these
licenses... remember, I
told you that they
shouldn't have done it to
begin with... from
distributors in Europe,
and selling its products
directly... which grew
European revenues from
$150 million, to just
around $1 billion.
Now, the company wants to
mirror the strategy in
Asia, where most of its
money comes from
licensing. They're already
buying back their
children's and golf
licenses in Japan, and now
control three quarters of
RL-related business there.
It's a big brand name over
there.
If the results of this
strategy in Asia are
anything close to what
they were in Europe, it's
going to mean big bucks
for years for RL...
In Europe, RL is reducing
its exposure to
low-quality distribution
partners, focusing on the
ones that can carry a
wider variety of the
company's apparel at
higher prices. That's why
their sales per square
foot in Europe are 50%
higher than in North
America.
This company also has
tremendous growth
opportunities in these
countries that I always
mention... you've got to
understand, this is where
the money's being made...
in India, in Russia, in
China... all places where
people (now) have more
money in their pockets and
want to spend it
conspicuously on things
like clothes that make
them feel rich. The desire
to look good may be the
grease of the wheels of
capitalism, but the desire
to feel wealthy is what
makes these wheels turn.
And, boy, are the people
in Russia wealthy these
days...
I also think we could be
seeing a lot of upgrades
here. Right now, the
analysts don't like the
stock. They don't
understand the new
business model... they
don't understand the power
of buying back all of
these licenses... 5 buys,
8 holds on the stock...
Morgan Keeting just
upgraded to a buy... I
think many of these holds
will follow. They're all
looking for an apparel
stock to get behind.
They'll get this one.
Plus... can I just say...
that this 63-year-old...
guy wears Ralph Lauren...
I got this Ralph purple
label (pointing to the
suit jacket he is
wearing)... a decade
ago... maybe even
longer... and it still
looks great, doesn't it?
An 11-year-old thing... I
mean, how else do you
think I got rich? By
buying new suits every
year? Hardly! By wearing
the same suit every
year... that's the trick
to great wealth! (wink)...
Right now, RL is trading
at 15.9x earnings with a
14.3% growth rate... not
expensive... but I think
we can get a better price,
and that's what counts. If
the stock trades as low as
the growth rate, down to
14.3x earnings...
$65-$68... that would be
such a gift.
Now, I know you probably
won't be able to get it
below $70, but this is
where the real strength
is...
By buying on weakness,
it's the best way to make
a really good idea pay
off. Remember, the series
is not just about the
biggest beats. It's about
how to buy them,
particularly in a
treacherous market.