See Jim's
1:30pm valuable
Comments from
today's
"At The Half"
1:30pm show

here...
 
 
 

 

  Tuesday, 08/19/08
Posted 08/20/08,  01:02 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Tuesday, 08/19/08

  Dow Jones: 11,348   -  130
  NASDAQ:   2,384   -   32
  S&P 500:   1,266   -   11
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
   
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Flat Or Sparkling?'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)

See PEP*'s official investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for PEP* here.

See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


Jim:    This is head-to-head week! I'm stacking up the biggest brand name stocks against their iconic competitors, in order to teach you the single most important skill to being a great investor... how to compare stocks so you know which one is cheaper... which one is the better value... which one we believe will go up the most... the better buy...

This is a gigantic project... the ultimate Mad Money educational guide to evaluating stocks...

We've already done McDonald's versus Burger King... and Coach versus Tiffany...

.  .  .  .  .

Now we're going to use that same 10-point scale that I introduced yesterday to judge a real clash of the stock titans...

Coca-Cola (KO) versus Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)... What's cheaper?... What's the better buy?...

And don't think KO, because it's a $54 stock and PEP* is a $70 stock... The share price means nothing...

.  .  .  .  .

First on the Mad Money checklist... it has to be the sector...

Since a stock's sector accounts for 50% of its performance, the comany's sector is worth up to 5 out of 10 points on the Mad Money stock scale...

So where do KO - a beverage company... and PEP* - a food and beverage company... stack up based on their sector?

In an environment where inflation has peaked, we just got I believe the last bad consumer price index number, and the last bad producer number, but the economy still has not at all rebounded. The playbook that all the managers use says buy safety... buy something defensive... which is why PEP* and KO bucked today's awful downturn... Normally, you'd give food and beverage companies a 5 for sector in this kind of environment - remember, 5 being the best - because, when people think defense, they think KO and PEP*... but, remarkably, KO has actually seen some economic pressure... You have to understand that that's close to unheard of... but they talked about it on their (earnings' conference) call... particularly on convenience store purchases...

So, instead of 5, I'm giving KO 4 points... this is the sector weighting... and PEP*?... 4.5... because it was KO and not PEP* that said the economy was causing some pain...

.  .  .  .  .

After you look at the sector, you can compare the stocks head-to-head... and there I say the first and most important thing that managers care about and you should care about... is growth...

On the growth front, KO seems tapped out...

Other than its bolt-on acquistion of Vitamin Water, which looks to be a brilliant, brilliant move... KO is already though in a lot of countries, getting 81% of its operating profit from overseas, and needs to reignite growth to make money... historically, a very hard thing to do...

Carbonated drinks in the U.S. are a flat category... no pun intended... and, in fact, sparkling beverage sales were down 4% for KO last quarter... plus PEP* and KO are locked in an endless price war... Doesn't it seem like we've been paying the same price for these drinks for years?...

PEP*, which gets only 29% of its operating profit from outside the western hemisphere, has a lot more room for international growth... much more than KO... We give PEP* 1 point for growth prospects... and KO earns no points... bringing the score to... PEP*, 5.5... KO, 4...

.  .  .  .  .

Next strategy...

Controlling your own destiny!... Here PEP* has clearly figured out that the soft drink category can be a long-term loser!... So PEP* is now a snack food company with a soda arm... while KO is soda...

Witness the battle mentioned in the very front section of The Wall Street Journal today, about KO's massive olympian spending to blunt PEP*... to which I say, come on man... they're both commodities!...

KO has innovated though, coming up with Coke Zero, trying to take the inevitable shelf space from PEP*... hey, that's brilliant right?... But PEP* says, wait a second, the soda aisle is the bloody war between the states... How much better is it to be the Spanish-American war... which is what the snack aisle feels like...

PEP*'s acquisition of Quaker Oats, which brought both Gatorade - a huge franchise - and snacks, to augment PEP*'s Frito-Lay division, sure beats KO buying 50 cent out of the Vitamin Water acquisition...

PEP* doesn't want to waste time fighting for the soda aisle... Instead, we're getting real innovation from them in the snack aisle, where they're taking shelf space from Rold Gold, Herrs, and Utz... a whole lot easier than taking it from KO...

Another point for PEP* and I'm willing to give KO half a point for the winning ways of Coke Zero... even though they're fighting the wrong war.

PEP*'s lead now widens to 6.5 to 4.5...

.  .  .  .  .

You have to look at management next...

To me, this is a big X-factor... harder to value this than some of the other things...

At PEP*, you have Indra Nooyi, cementing her leadership... she's been there for a little bit now...

At KO, Neville Isdale, a Cramer favorite, has been replaced with first-year CEO, Muhtar Kent... We don't like first-year CEOs, because they tend to either mess up or obliterate earnings... but the
Buffett factor... the fact that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A) owns 200 million shares of KO gives the stock a big halo effect versus PEP*...

People love... they love Buffett so much that they forget about KO's meager growth, so I'm giving a half a point to each...

PEP* still leads 7 to 5...

.  .  .  .  .

All right, now... dividends...

KO is higher at 2.8%. PEP* is a 2.4% yield... but maybe that's because KO's down a lot... I mean PEP* has a better record of dividend increases... Let's give a point each here...

Okay, 8 (for PEP*) and 6 (for KO)...

.  .  .  .  .

Next, we look at raw costs...

Six weeks ago, with grain skyrocketing and gasoline going to $5 smackers, it was easy... KO, with costs locked in, was best of show... PEP* has more exposure to trucks driving Frito-Lay snacks to stores everyday than KO does... Remember, Fritos need to be replaced constantly... it's a great generator of cash for supermarkets... plus Frito-Lay has a lot of expensive ingredients...

But with gasoline and grain prices falling, PEP* is now the better play...

KO deserves a half point for locking its prices in, right?... They have very, very good commodity costs... PEP* also gets a half point... let's call it the "dumb luck factor"...

8.5 to 6.5... PEP* is one top...

.  .  .  .  .

All right... let's call it... let's call it right here...

PEP* wins on points. It also wins on valuation...

Both KO and PEP* trade at about the same price-to-earnings multiple, versus next year's earnings... even though KO is growing at 9% and PEP* at 11%...

I say game over!...

I believe PEP* deserves a higher multiple and, therefore, a higher price.

Here's the bottom line!..

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     You want to be defensive right now? Coca-Cola (KO) and Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) are your archtypal defense stocks. Now you know how they measure up, and PEP* is the one.

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


PEP

70.10

na

Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)


KO

54.33

na

Coca-Cola (KO)


 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



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Second Segment
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'The Life of O'Reilly'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY)

See ORLY's official investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for ORLY here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

Jim:    We are about to accomplish the impossible... We are going to try to make money in the auto sector...

Everyone's always talking about how the automakers are struggling... no kidding... especially the U.S. automakers... but even best of breed TM is only about 7 points above its 52-week low of $82.

We hear how no one wants to buy a car anymore, so how would you like to know how to try and make some money off the plight of the automakers?... And I do not mean shorting them... You can...

One of the reasons people aren't buying new cars is that their old cars are more durable than ever... so they're keeping them longer. You throw in a weak economy to make people cost conscious, and auto sales go out the window...

But there is a group that should benefit from people owning older and older vehicles... and that group is... auto parts retailers and mechanics...

Don't get me wrong... I think the companies that make auto parts and then sell them to the manufacturers are completely and utterly toxic... those are worse than Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE)...

But the ones that make auto parts for the after market... the ones that sell you replacement parts for the car you already own... after you got the car... I say they are the winners here, along with a select group, the mechanics, who make the repairs...

.  .  .  . 

More comments will continue here...

  Note:   We now quickly post the specific stock recommendation, and Jim's "Bottom Line" for each segment... and then follow-up with the complete recap of his key comments.  Check back today, to read the recap of this segment, in its entirety, along with the complete Mad Money show recommendations and comments... 

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     People may not be buying new cars like they used to, but their old cars need replacement parts more than ever, and the life of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) is the way to play it!

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


na

na

na

O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY)


     



 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
Helpful Websites:
  See the stocks currently known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:

jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com

 
See the stocks currently known to be in Warren Buffett's portfolio
of stocks at:

warren-buffett-portfolio.com

 
  Stock Homework 101:   This is an excellent upcoming site that provides resources and links to help you do that homework that Jim Cramer recommends after hearing his suggestions...

StockHomework101.com

This site is coming soon.   Thank you.

 
  FastMoneyRecap:   This site will be a quick summary of recommendations made by the great Fast Money TV show crew, that will offer you a unique service, to compare their picks to Jim Cramer's past comments about those stocks.

Fast Money Recap - Trades for next day...

Compare these picks to Jim's comments for the same stocks.

 

 

   
   
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