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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Welcome to
the Jungle' |
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Featured Stock(s): |
Amazon.com (AMZN)
See AMZN's official
investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
AMZN
here.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
Jim:
Last night,
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ*) reported a
superb quarter!
Congratulations to Mark
Hurd, the excellent CEO...
It let us know that tech
seems to be coming back
into style!...
Don't get me wrong... we
like HPQ*'s results, but
the biggest beat in tech
didn't come from that
printer and computer and
soon-to-be consultant...
It came from
Amazon.com (AMZN)...
...making it, in my
opinion, the name to own,
if you want to play the
tech comeback that I see
happening after Labor
Day...
Now, I know also that this
shouldn't be part of the
equation... I try to ban
it at all times, but
AMZN's one darn exciting
stock to own...
Alright, last week, AMZN
was trading as high as
$88... It's come back
down. I've been waiting
and waiting and waiting. I
was going to do this
piece last week, but it
was too high... It's come
back down to $82 and
change, but I think this
is a good entry point,
given the quarter the
company
delivered back on July
24th...
And, just as important,
the strength of
The Kindle
... which
looks like it could be
delivering iPod-esque
sales numbers, if not at
least a Walkman...
To understand why I think
AMZN - this fallen member
of the Four Horsemen of
Tech - is now very much
back on its feet, you have
to look at that beautiful
quarter it reported nearly
a month ago... Remember,
this was a quarter when
gas prices were much
higher and food prices
were much higher... The
consumer wasn't just
getting squeezed, he was
getting waterboarded, and
then put on the rack...
So, how did AMZN do the
"happier days are here
again?"...
Well, it earned 37 cents a
share, while the Street
was expecting 26 cents.
Now, that's a 46% beat!
That is one of the hugest
ones I've seen... And, to
me, that still matters,
even if the earnings were
in-line, when you exclude
items and one-time
gains...
But the big story of the
quarter came from AMZN's
sales... not its earnings!
The company's revenues
came in at $100 million,
or about 2.5% above
consensus (estimates by
analysts)... giving AMZN -
get this - 41%
year-over-year sales
growth, in an environment
where retail was getting
mutilated...
When things were bad,
AMZN's active customers
grew by 18%... its active
sellers by 18%... And
growth in sales per active
customer came in at 19%.
These are unbelievable
numbers!... We're in a
recession! It's all
horrible, right... isn't
it all gloom and doom?...
No.
AMZN increased its margins
- its profitability - in
international business
and, best of all,
management said there were
no signs of a consumer
slowdown, as far as they
were concerned...
Did you hear that from
J. C. Penney (JCP)?...
Did you hear that from
Macy's
(M)?...
Did you hear that from
Kohl's (KSS)?...
Did you hear that from
Target (TGT)?...
No!
Sure, you could say that
higher gas prices helped
AMZN, because people kept
going from bricks and
mortar stores at the end
of the day to online...
And this one's a retailer,
just like everybody else.
And, if consumers have
less money to spend on
discretionary stuff, that
shouldn't hurt them. It
didn't seem to last
quarter and, now that more
people have money in their
pockets, thanks to lower
prices on everything from
gas to chicken, you've got
to imagine things will get
better at AMZN.
And, can I also say that
the customer experience at
AMZN is so great, that I
doubt new customers who
got out of their cars and
didn't go to the mall,
will ever go back to their
old ways...
Throw in the fact that...
here's a piece of
information that on one's
talking about, except for
Cramer... Throw in the
fact that every state in
this country is hurting
for cash right now, and
it's very likely that many
of them will raise sales
taxes, because they have
to balance their budgets,
unlike the federal
government... And, AMZN,
which only makes you pay
sales tax on your
purchases, if your
ordering from Kansas,
Kentucky, New York, North
Dakota, or Washington...
five out of 50 states...
will become an even more
appealing place to shop...
Then there's
The Kindle...
I know there's been a lot
of mixed opinion about
this, and the company's
been doing its best to
keep Kindle sales under
wraps... But a pretty
credible report from
Citigroup estimated that
Kindle's sales would be
just under 400,000 by the
end of the year... Those
look like early iPod sales
to me and, when you take
into account that Kindle
book sales made up more
than 10% of book titles
sold... up from 6% in
April... not that long
ago... and the fact that
customer reviews have
become increasingly
positive... it looks like
AMZN has a major gadget on
its hands... in addition
to being a top-notch
online retailer...
Remember when Sony used to
come up with them?...
To me, Kindle's a game
changer, period.
As for how AMZN stacks up
against other online
players, well, here's
pretty amazing stuff...
It's actually been able to
outperform Cramer fave,
GOOG... who's CEO, Eric
Schmidt, we had on last
week... in operating
profit growth... It's been
able to out-do EBAY in
sales volume and customer
acquisition...
AMZN's got lower margins
than both EBAY and GOOG,
but that makes it easier
for AMZN to add new
products and services,
like
The Kindle...
and its Prime program -
which is really good, have
you seen that one? - let's
users get free shipping,
in exchange for a yearly
subscription fee... That
could help close the
margin gap.
The Amazon Prime,
especially, has helped the
company keep customers.
Once you pay the fee, how
can you not shop
exclusively at Amazon for
the free shipping? And
they're expanding the
program internationally...
just like they already
expanded their third-party
sales program
internationally... a big
reason why I think
international performed so
well last quarter.
This company's going to be
like Google one day...
It's going to get 52% of
its business from
international...
AMZN's got a new kicker
here, and this one no one
is talking about... no
one...
It's called "Amazon
Fresh"...
This program sounds like a
lot of the failed dot-com
enterprises from the
'90s... It's an online
grocery store that
Amazon's testing in
Seattle... Amazon pays
sales tax on all taxable
items... If you order
before midnight, you get
the groceries before
dawn... If you spend more
than $25, there's no
shipping fee...
AMZN has been testing this
program since last August,
expanding it into more
neighborhoods. I think
this could work all over
the place, even though the
idea didn't back in the
dot-com era, because gas
prices are so much
higher... and because AMZN
is already near a one-stop
shop platform for nearly
everything you want to buy
on the web...
Why not have groceries?...
And get people to buy more
things on the site?...
I think this same-day
innovation will be
gigantic... and, don't
forget, AMZN is such a big
customer of
FedEx (FDX),
that I bet Fedex has to
bend over backward, and
keep delivery costs much
lower than for any other
client...
This is so smart!... AMZN
is so smart!...