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See Jim's
1:30pm valuable
Comments from
today's
"At The Half"
1:30pm show
here...
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Thursday, 08/21/08
Posted 08/21/08, 08:49
am ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Thursday, 08/21/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
11,430 |
+ 12 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,380 |
- 8 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,277 |
+ 3 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Keeping
Pace' |
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
CSX Corp. (CSX)
See CSX's official
investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
CSX
here.
or...
Heinz (HNZ)
See HNZ's official
investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
HNZ
here.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
Jim:
Do you want to go 60 miles
per hour comfortably?...
Or do you want to go 287
miles an hour and get
scared out of your
wits?...
Do you want to be able to
ignore a conference call
or two, and still be safe
in the notion that your
company's brand is
unassailable... or do you
want to have to pay
attention to minutia... to
things like demurage, like
car loads, like flooding,
like snow storms... how
about terminal dwell?...
Do you want to be firm in
the knowledge that there
will never be a Chinese
competitor... some East
Asian knockoff of your
company's products?...
Or do you want to pay
attention to every
percentage amount of
Chinese growth?... Every
dollar amount of coal, and
every pound of fertilizer
shipped... not to mention
whether Honda or GM are
moving some cars...
Welcome to the kind of
questions and constrasts
you have to deal with on
your own as an investor...
I'd love to come out here
every night and tell you
what to do, but you know
what?... You can't rely on
me, or anyone else for
that matter, because we
can't tell you what your
own preferences are...
You have to know
yourself... I may not seem
like a very zen buddhist
guy but, when it comes to
picking stocks, that's a
rule you can't afford to
avoid...
Alright, so what brings us
all to this?...
Today, on Mad Money at the
Half... I spoke to two
excellent CEOs... who have
been delivering fantastic
results for two very
different companies... One
is
Heinz (HNZ),
which is up 60% over the
last five years... And the
other is the
CSX Corp. (CSX)...
the railroad that gained
287% in the same period!
Now there is no doubt in
my mind or yours... that
we would rather nail a
287% return than a 60%
return... but there's a
price to pay... the
wildness, the
volatility... we call it
by a Greek letter... the
beta... that causes us, at
times, to take huge
losses, in order to make
the big 287% gains... Of
course, those losses are
on paper, and not
realized...
HNZ, at $51.99 stock,
trades in increments of
pennies, okay...
Now CSX trades at
$61.96...
That one trades in
increments of dollars...
Let me go into the
contrast a bit more
in-depth today...
HNZ reported a sweet,
terrific quarter this
morning, one that I
congratulated its CEO,
Bill Johnson, for
delivering...
The company had remarkable
sales growth... The top 15
products grew at 17%...
13% of their growth was
organic... Hey, get
this... Ore Ida fries were
up 30% year-over-year!...
Man! Are we getting
fat!...
They're innovating and
they're selling and
they're breaking into
whole new markets like
Latin America, China,
India and Russia...
So what did HNZ stock do
after that blowout
number?... It was up,
uh... 28 cents... after
all that hard work and
great numbers... up 28
cents.
Compare that today with
CSX, which didn't announce
a thing... didn't do a
thing... and, for all I
know, the trains didn't
even run on time today...
And what did that stock
do?...
It jumped $1.57...
2.6%!...
I mean, come on!... They
just went around and did
nothing and they made much
more money than HNZ did...
because commodities were
up... they ship
commodities... perhaps it
was the dollar... It was
weaker and they ship
overseas... Who the heck
knows! We don't even
know...
Now, another day, that
same move up could just as
easily have been a decline
of the same size... and
we'd be similarly
clueless... I could make
up a reason... I often
feel like that people make
up reasons... No, it was
just up!...
. . . .
.
So, before you buy a
stock, you need to ask
yourself, what can you
handle?... You need to
know, do you want to own a
company with a stock,
where you'll never have to
worry about waking up and
going to the diner...
Do you want a stock that,
when it doesn't do well,
doesn't go down much?...
Or when it does do well,
like it did this morning,
tends to move up slowly
over time?... Or do you
want to take a ride on a
real train?... Do you want
to take a ride on the CSX
express! Strap yourself in
and get some great gains
at the risk of some
hideous...
I don't have the answer
for you, whether you like
CSX like the trainwreck,
or whether you like HNZ,
and you just want to have
something pretty good on
your fries... I don't,
because there's something
to be said for owning the
stocks of iconic brands
that will do well over
time... and you won't have
to worry about the Baltic
Freight Index, or the
price of DAP - that's a
fertilizer ingredient - or
whether Honda's shipping a
lot of cars or not... or
lumber...
You still have to do a
little
homework for HNZ, but the homework
is, well... let's just say
it's much less demanding
than CSX...
With CSX, all those great
percentage points you got,
you had to worry about a
Chinese slowdown... you
had to worry about housing
starts... you had to worry
about storms, which cost
them a couple of pennies
sometimes... you have to
worry about labor
problems... Or maybe you
just want a product that
they're just discovering
in China, like HNZ...
You see the bottom line is
this...
. . . .
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The Bottom Line!:
The dichotomy of Sleeping Beauty
versus Mr. Toad's Wild Ride is the
fulcrum of money management.
Unlike almost all the other views I
have, the answer to this one is
simple... You make the call.
Whether it's
CSX Corp. (CSX)
or
Heinz (HNZ),
it's up to you... based on how much
effort you'll put out.
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|

|
CSX |
61.96 |
na |
CSX Corp. (CSX)
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HNZ |
51.99 |
na |
Heinz (HNZ)
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See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
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Most popular
investing books ordered:
(click any book to see at
Amazon.com) |
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