|
|
|
Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
|
 |
na |
na |
|
In a tough
economy it’s
important to
look for new
sources to stay
ahead of the
pack.
Jim:
Tonight, we are
going to talk to
someone who
understands the
restaurant business…
the hospitality
business… and gets
it better than
anybody else… I am
talking about the
great restauranteur
and author,
Setting The Table…
Danny Meyer, who
runs the best
restaurants in New
York city… I want
you to be thinking
Union Square Café…
or Blue Smoke, if
you are looking for
barbecue… the last
time we had Danny
on… back on January
25th of 2007... I
can’t believe it was
that long ago… he
said that you can’t
make any money in
Starbucks… and he
gave Chipotle’s a
big thumbs up… since
then… pretty
staggering Starbucks
is down 72%…
Chipotle’s is only
down 16%.. that
matters because the
S&P 500 is down 42%
over that same
period… I call that
huge relative out
performance… plus
you caught a major
rally in Chipotle if
you bought after
Danny came on… it
skyrocketed… you did
really well if you
went long the one he
liked, and went
short the one he was
worried about… what
I am trying to say
is that we don’t
just want Danny to
come on the show
because he is cool..
.we want to talk to
him because he has
major restaurant
credibility… major
hospitality
credibility… he
really is just a
walking database on
how first class
hospitality
restaurants or other
entities are taking
share and doing
better than their
competitors in this
downturn… because
Meyer’s restaurants
have the hospitality
quotient and their
competitors don’t…
and we are seeing
that… oh and by the
way, hospitality and
service are not the
same thing as you
will find out in a
moment.
Now Danny Meyer’s
has a new theory
beyond just
restaurants…
companies that
provide exceptional
hospitality will
somehow outperform
those that don’t
during the tough
period that we are
in… or any one like
that… why… because
they will have built
up customer good
will and brand
loyalty… it is a
hospitality quotient
that he thinks could
cause out
performance… now,
obviously there are
many other factors
that could destroy
that out
performance… like
debt, like a secular
decline in the
companies business
model… we want to
have Danny come on
and talk about this
theory in a second…
but first, put the
theory to test with
a list of companies
he supplied and we
are going to call it
the Meyer
Hospitality Economy
Index… remember
again what I said
about Starbucks… I
didn’t see that
coming… so even
though I would think
that this is counter
intuitive… and won’t
work… let’s give it
a chance… the stocks
in the index that
Danny thinks excel…
when it comes to
exceptional
hospitality, both in
taking care of their
customers and their
employees are…
Amazon, eBay,
Costco, Goldman
Sachs, Apple,
Google, Whole Foods,
Southwest Airlines,
Mattel, Build a
Bear, Men’s
Warehouse,
Timberland,
Nordstrom’s, Bed
Bath & Beyond,
American Express,
Brown Forman, and
Chipotle.
Now, I know that
that is a mouthful…
that is why we made
an index about it…
now, here… this is
about the future…
but in the past this
was down 29% in the
fourth quarter of
2008... compared to
23% decline for S&P
500... as of the
close today it is
down 34.9%, compared
to 29.2% for the S&P
500... so in other
words see the
yellow… that is
under performing the
S&P 500... for now…
for now… now I think
that it is possible
that the premium
nature of some of
these companies
creates customer
loyalty also means
that they are too
expensive for
consumers during a
downturn… I also
don’t think that we
can throw away this
theory based on just
4 months of data
though… the Meyer
Hospitality Economy
Index might
outperform in the
future… which is
what we care about
more than in the
past… but I am not
the guy to tell you
about it,
Danny Meyer,
who has more credit
when it comes to
restaurants and
especially
hospitality than
anyone else in the
world… |
|
See comments continued below...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Monday,
February 2, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Start of
Interview
with
Danny Meyer,
Author and
Restauranteur...
Jim:
Danny Meyer,
welcome back to
Mad Money...
First, I need
you to explain
the difference
why hospitality
and service are
different
concepts...
Danny:
Well, everyone
talks about
service and they
always have.
Service really
is just a way to
say did a
company do what
it said it was
going to do.
Hospitality is a
way to describe
how good the
company makes
you feel. And I
think we all
know, whether it
is a good
economy or a bad
economy people
are going to
flock not only
to quality and
value, but the
real value that
they want is
that you are
somebody that
they appreciate.
Jim:
Well, doesn’t it
cost money to
have people…
learn
hospitality…
managers learn
hospitality… and
doesn’t it
ultimately cost
more than the
guys who don’t
give you
hospitality?
Danny:
In the near term
I think that it
does cost more,
because what it
means, and it
doesn’t surprise
me at all to
see, at this
time, that the
Meyer
Hospitality
Index is down,
because if you
think about it,
the first thing
that companies
do when their
revenues go
down, to control
cost, is they
start cutting
their employees.
And the first
thing that a
great
hospitality
economy company
does, is that it
realizes and
believes that
the best way to
deliver great
hospitality to
their customers,
and ultimately
to their
shareholders is
to give it to
their employees.
So the companies
that are cutting
costs, cutting
at the muscle,
the fiber of the
good will, may
have a near term
advantage, and I
would watch that
index go down a
little bit more,
and then I would
probably want to
hit hard,
because long
run, they are
going to have
much, much
better staying
power. Because
the consumer is
going to keep
going to the
place that loves
them the most.
Jim:
It is
interesting that
you say that in
terms of apropos
today… Macy’s
cut their
dividend… cut a
huge number of
employees… and I
am cognizant
that maybe they
are doing what
you are
describing.
Danny:
Can I just give
you a real quick
example?
Jim:
Sure.
Danny:
We have the same
pressures in the
restaurant
business that
any of these
larger companies
have, and one of
the things that
we try to do is
cut our staff
last. Maybe we
are going to say
that we can only
pay you for four
days instead of
five days, but,
you know what,
since times are
rough for you,
our restaurant
Table, as well
as Grammercy
Tavern, invites
all of our staff
members to eat
lunch and dinner
with us even if
they are not
working today.
We want to make
it easier for
your, even when
we are asking
you to
sacrifice. Now,
near term
probably a
bigger cost for
us. long term
better good will
from our staff,
and therefore
better feeling
for our guests.
Jim:
Clearly this is
empirical for
you… are you
seeing, in your
restaurant, in
your restaurant
group, the
hospitality
paying off…
taking share
maybe… other
restaurants not
doing as well…
it is hard to
quantify right,
because you are
not public?
Danny:
I don’t really
look so much at
market share
when it comes to
our businesses.
I really look at
the depth of the
loyalties
between our
communities, our
suppliers, our
employees, and
our guests. And
when we have all
of those in
motion, that is
how we have out
lived every
single one of
these down turns
so far.
Jim:
Now, let’s talk
about some
brands where it
doesn’t
necessarily lend
itself to
thinking that
hospitality is
involved.
Timberland was
one of them,
where is the
hospitality
there?
Danny:
Well remember
hospitality is
not just for
restaurants and
grandma inviting
you to
Thanksgiving
dinner.
Hospitality is
the way to
describe the
degree to which
a company first
treats its
employees well,
then its
customers, then
the community in
which it does
business. It’s
suppliers, and
it believes that
it will return a
bigger dividend
to the investor.
Timberland is
actually a
company that I
have been
inspired by for
many, many
years. They
actually have
wonderful
programs in
place, and
demand, and
almost mandate
that their
employees
volunteer in the
community in
which they do
business. I
think that that
attracts a
higher hq,
hospitality
quotient, in the
first place. And
I think that
every
transaction you
have with
Timberland, even
if it is on the
web, feels
better, they are
happy to see me
when I come to
spend my money
there.
Jim:
Now, Costco I
think for those
of us who are
members, we know
this. Right now
I feel better
going to Costco
than I ever
have, I got the
same people I
see, I know that
it is well run.
But, and this is
important, we
had Jim Senecal,
he is the CEO of
Costco on, he
admitted that
right now… his
customers he’s
not going to
give the hit… he
is going to hit
his
shareholders… in
other words
customers are
going to get a
break, employees
are going to get
a break, but the
shareholders may
not be first.
How about that?
Is that
something that
longer term is
good?
Danny:
Absolutely, and
I think that he
well
understands.
This is what I
meant why the
Meyer
Hospitality
Index may be
down for a
little bit right
now, but long
term, it is a
good investment.
Because he
understands in
the virtuous
cycle of
enlightened
hospitality, if
you want to
deliver the
most, highest
returns to your
investors, you
first give it to
your employees
so they give it
to your
customer, to
your community,
your suppliers,
and ultimately
you end up, and
the reason that
it is a virtuous
cycle is that we
need happy
investors to do
the thing that
our employees
most want, which
is to promote
growth.
Jim:
Alright, now
this is a
tougher one for
me to
understand… old
No. 7... now I
know that when I
was at a bar… I
was at the
Palace the other
day… and someone
ordered Jack…
and I said oh
they didn’t
order whiskey…
is that the
hospitality…
where is the
hospitality of
Brown Foreman in
No. 7?
Danny:
Well the
hospitality is
two fold. Number
1 is that it
feels really
good to have a
Jack. Let’s face
that. That is
not a bad thing
to start with. I
think alcohol
companies are
not a bad bet in
general right
now. Maybe stay
away from the
trophy wines
that people are
sort of done
with right now.
But, I think
that Brown
Forman is a
company, that
wherever they do
business they
get involved
with their
community. They
make a major,
major
contribution to
Share Our
Strength, that
fights hunger
throughout the
country. Heck,
even here in New
York City they
sponsor the Big
Apple Barbecue
Block Party,
that brings
barbecue to the
whole world. But
they also have a
huge employee
driven culture,
and for that
reason, I know
that that good
feeling is going
to enyour to
every
interaction and
transaction we
have with that
company.
Jim:
Okay, how about
Men’s Warehouse…
where I would
think of… wait a
second, when I
want to give
something… you
know I would go
to one of the
fancy department
stores…
individual stand
alone men’s suit
place…. this is
a chain.
Danny:
Same thing, you
have got this
amazing
confluence of
especially high
care for their
employees, and
for their
communities, and
if they put that
first, the
profits tend to
follow. It also
doesn’t hurt in
some of these
cases, that
these are
companies that
are going to
benefit from a
flight to value.
So that is
something that
is going to help
them as well.
But that is not
what I made a
prerequisite.
Jim:
Alright, one
last one…
reported a tough
quarter today…
Mattel has been
in the news… it
hasn’t been that
positive… how do
we know… can
they turn things
around… I mean,
this is a
company that I
think America
may not think is
not that
hospitable
because of what
happened with
China… and
paint… this is a
good brand
though?
Danny:
It is something
that I am going
to have ask my
daughter about,
because she
knows a whole
lot more than
me. But I would
just say for the
exact same
reasons, not
only is this a
brand that has
been around for
a long time, it
is here to stay,
it has weathered
every other
recession. But
look at how they
prioritize their
business
principles.
Jim:
While we are
done… I have to
ask… can
Starbucks turn
it?
Danny:
I think
Starbucks can
turn it but I
think it is
going to take a
long time. I
think that we
are in an
economy right
now where people
are saying do I
have enough
money? Yes or
no. And number
two, how does it
look, what are
the optics of
going to
Starbucks. I
have actually
seen people
walking around
with
Choc-full-of-Nuts
and Dunkin
Donuts because
it looks better
when they come
to their office
if they didn’t
bring Starbucks
in. And that is
a tough one to
overcome, even
though Starbucks
may have better
coffee.
Jim:
Alright,
Danny... you
come back. And
let’s see if you
are right.
Because I have
got to tell you,
people were
furious, you
came on and said
that it may not
be a good bet…
one of the great
calls of our
lifetimes… I
want to see… we
have got the
index… the book…
Setting The Table…
I still
recommend it for
anybody who is
starting a
business… I even
recommended a
couple guys in
the restaurant
business in my
town recently
but they noted…
they called it
the Bible.
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
Read Jim's next Segment
here
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
 |
 |
|
|
|
Search for Jim's past comments about a specific
stock. Use
ticker symbol or company name in quotes
(e.g., GOOG or "Google") |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|