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[Beginning of
Cramer's
verbatim
comments for
this segment...]
Jim:
Tonight, with
natural gas
jumping a huge
15% in one day,
I get a chance
to meld my
crusade for
natural gas as a
national bridge
fuel with my
Jihad against
financial
products... the
Exchange-Traded
Funds that don't
do what you
think they'll
do... I'm
talking about
the weapons of
mass financial
destruction...
like the SKF,
the UltraShort
Financial
ProShares that I
think really
brought down
some very good
banks and cost
you, the
taxpayer, maybe
tens of billions
in bailout
money... and
also instruments
of financial
self-immolation...
ETFs that hurt
you because you
probably think
you're buying
something that
you're really
not.
What's the
product of this
unholy union?...
It's the
United States Natural Gas
(UNG)
ETF... and that
is the subject
of tonight's
Sell Block...
For weeks, I've been
talking about the
potential of natural
gas as a transition
fuel to get us away
from oil and, even
worse, out of the
filthy clutches of
the coal industry...
cutting carbon
emissions by 28.5%
if we use it to fuel
our cars... 40% if
we burn it instead
of coal...
Natural gas is
plentiful... We're
sitting on top of
238 trillion feet of
proven reserves here
in the United
States, and it grows
all the time... 1.8
quadrillion cubic
feet of probable,
possible and
speculative
reserves... enough
to supply the U.S.
with energy for more
than... yes... a
century at current
levels of
consumption... And,
remember, a lot of
this has been found
in just the last
three years.
Now I have told
you... this could be
sobering... I have
told you about the
coal industry, with
its huge
Congressional market
share... Oh, excuse
me... I forgot my
role as a diplomat
and elder
statesman... I meant
mindshare, has been
standing in the way
of natural gas,
holding out the
oxymoronic
proposition of
"clean coal" via
carbon capture, as
an alternative...
I've got to tell
you, that's like
hoping for the tooth
fairy instead of
going to the
dentist... given
that it will take at
least a decade
before the
technology even
exists.
We had a terrible
trade deficit number
today... I was
really bummed out...
As an American, I
feel bummed out
about this... the
gap between imports
and exports
increasing 16% to
$32 billion. I need
you to think how
quickly we could
close that gap, if
we replace foreign
oil with
domestically-produced
natural gas.
With natural gas, we
have the
transportation
infrastructure, and
can easily build
more pipelines, and
put a lot of people
to work. It's a
viable transition
fuel to help reduce
our dependence on
the Middle East...
to create jobs...
fight climate
change... while we
wait for wind and
solar to become...
well... how about
"commercial." I
mean, what's not to
like?
Now, let's have a
little lesson
here...
Apparently, the coal
industry clowns...
and their
Congressmen... their
favorite
Congresspeople in
the House of
Representatives...
Well, what are they
up to? They don't
care for natural
gas. They like coal
best.
I've been kicking
around some names
for them... what
they are... and I've
got it. They're the
pro-black-lung,
pro-dirty-skies
coalition... not the
Rainbow Coalition,
because you won't be
able to see any
rainbows if these
guys win out...
They obviously
disagree with me
because they
marginalized natural
gas in the latest
energy bill.
Luckily, the Senate
is more natural gas
friendly... and they
could make changes
to the bill that
might benefit the
natural gas
industry, because
what's good for
natural gas - like
GM of yore - is good
for America.
You'd think then
that the natural gas
ETF, like UNG, would
be a great way to
invest in the
adoption of natural
gas as a bridge
fuel. If you believe
Washington has the
political will, or
that the natural gas
industry finally has
the lobbying clout
to make this happen,
why not buy an ETF
that purports to let
you own natural gas?
After all, the price
of this dirt-cheap
commodity should
start to rise once
it's embraced as a
transition fuel.
So why not buy this
ETF?...
You probably think I
endorse it... Well,
forget about it!...
Sell, sell, sell,
sell, sell, sell,
sell!...
First of all, UNG
could be in big
trouble, something
that my ETF gurus at
TheStreet.com,
Don Dais and his
wife, Carolyn
pointed out to me
today. At the
moment, UNG is
trading at an absurd
11% premium to its
net asset value -
the price of natural
gas - because it's
halted new share
creation...
essentially making
it a "closed-end
fund." You can only
buy from other
shareholders, not
the ETF manager.
But now that the
regulators are
cracking down on
these futures-based
commodity funds,
something that I
think is fabulous,
that premium could
disappear in an
instant, and you
would lose money
just as fast.
When the regulators
came for Deutsche
Bank's DXO... that
was a double-long
oil ETF that had
halted new share
creation, and was
also trading at a
premium to its net
asset value, the
good people at
Deutsche Bank
shuddered (closed)
the fund, and that
premium vanished.
The right thing to
do guys...
If the Commodity
Futures Trading
Commission decides
to make UNG's life
difficult, it could
go the way of DXO...
it redeems its
outstanding shares,
and that 11% premium
goes away, really
damaging your
investment if you
own this thing. You
could lose money in
the blink of an eye.
And, even without
regulatory pressure,
there's an inherent
problem with owning
a fund like UNG.
Remember, this is
really a Sell Block
name...
Like the
United States Oil ETF (USO),
the USO, that I've
already imprisoned
in the Sell Block,
the UNG actually
doesn't own natural
gas. It just
purports to. The
company put out a
prospectus, they
made it very clear,
but no one read the
prospectus.
Now, what I want to
know about this
one?... Is there any
room on death row in
the Sell Block? No,
I'm putting this one
in the Green Mile of
investing...
When you buy this,
you're not buying
the commodity.
You're mostly buying
a fund that owns
near-month natural
gas futures
contracts. The
problem with
that?... At the end
of the month, the
fund rolls over
these contracts into
the next month's
contracts. So, at
the end of
September, it'll
trade in its
September natural
gas futures
contracts for
October ones. It's
going to swap them.
It sounds
complicated, I know.
It sounds like
Wall Street jibberish...
So let me make it
simple...
The way UNG
operates... when
natural gas prices
are going higher...
when future natural
gas is worth more
than future natural
gas, then it loses
money every time it
rolls these futures
contracts forward.
You think you've got
a fund that's
tracking the price
of natural gas but,
instead, you own
something that's
leaking money as it
tries to roll a
bunch of futures
contracts uphill.
What a terrible
piece of paper this
is...
I like wallpaper...
No, I like toilet
paper more...
Even if natural gas
prices have moved
higher, the UNG
could lose enormous
amounts of money for
you, rolling these
contracts forward.
In the summer of
2007, even though
natural gas spot
prices increased by
1%, UNG lost 12% of
its value... mostly
from losses from
rolling its futures
contracts forward.
As long as you think
natural gas prices
are going higher in
the future... that's
a situation called
contango... the UNG
is, by its very
nature, going to do
worse than the
commodity. That's a
travesty! A travesty
for people about
what they expect
will happen...
Over the last three
months, natural gas
prices are down 12%.
Oh, here we go...
you're down 20% if
you owned the UNG.
How about since the
market's
generational low on
March 6th? Natural
gas, down 18%. UNG,
down 31%.
I think the better
way to play natural
gas is to own the
stocks. We've had
the CEOs of a lot of
great natural gas
companies on the
show lately... We've
had
XTO Energy Inc. (XTO),
we've had
Devon Energy (DVN*),
we've had
Anadarko Petroleum
(APC),
we've had
Apache Corp. (APA),
and we had LINN. If
you want one with a
big yield, any of
these make more
sense than the UNG.
My charitable trust
owns Devon, on
ActionAlertsPlus.com,
which I've been
buying... I bought
all the way down...
and, when natural
gas rallied to over
$3 today - a
gigantic 15% gain -
all of those stocks
exploded. So did the
UNG. What a great
time to sell it, and
swap into the real
natural gas plays.
If you insist on
buying an ETF, you
buy the stock ETF
equivalent. That's
First Trust
ISE-Revere Natural
Gas ETF (FCG).
It owns the actual
stocks of natural
gas companies. That
I'd abide by. It's
up 7.9% in the last
three months... 85%
since March 6th.
Natural gas stocks
have powered higher,
despite the falling
price of the
commodity.
If you don't want to
pick one, go for
that... But here's
the bottom line...
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
The
Bottom Line!:
I'm very angry about
this. I think
natural gas is the
way of the future;
it's the bridge fuel
that we need. But
you have to know how
to play it and,
first and foremost,
that means knowing
what to avoid. The
United States Natural Gas
(UNG)
is another ETF that
doesn't quite do
what you think it
does... and could be
in danger as the
regulators finally
start to do their
jobs... which means
it's definitely no
way to play
increasing natural
gas prices. Please,
please, please...
avoid this ETF or
sell it. You just
got a big move (up)
here, and I think
it's a huge mistake.
The whole thing
shouldn't exist. I
think it should be
shut down tomorrow.
Don't hold your
breath please. Just
sell the UNG.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
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