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[Beginning of
Cramer's
verbatim
comments for
this segment...]
Jim:
You want a great
way to try to
make money?...
Find something
we need, but
don't have
enough of...
find yourself a
shortage.
You've heard all
about
the mobile internet tsunami
on this show...
boy, did it make
money today...
holy cow... the
smartphone
revolution.
Remember,
yesterday, we
had David
Aldrich, one of
our favorite
guys,
Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS),
up 10% today...
and they make
the power
amplifiers for
these phones. He
came on the show
to talk about
how business is
booming... he
just raised his
4th quarter
forecast... to
genuine... much
better than
expected. As I
said at the top
of the show,
when it isn't
expected, it's
huge...
Smartphones have
gone from luxuries
to necessities... as
everyone wants to
have voice, data,
email, storage,
photos, Facebook,
Twitter, you name
it... all in one
gadget... and that's
created a gigantic
bandwidth shortage.
We just don't have
the mobile internet
infrastructure to
handle all the music
and videos that
people are
downloading on their
smartphones. I mean,
I just witnessed...
there was a great
story last week in
the New York Times
about how
the iPhone
is overloading
AT&T's cellular
network. The average
iPhone user takes up
ten times the
capacity of even the
average smartphone
user... causing
dropped calls,
spotty service,
delays, slower
download speeds...
which is a big
reason why AT&T
plans to spend most
of its $18 billion
capital expenditure
budget in 2009 on
upgrades and
expansions to its 3G
network.
Of course, what I
loved about the
article is that they
didn't give you the
names of who is
going to benefit.
That's up to me...
Now the reason I say
that is that it
looks like that
includes erecting an
additional 2,100
cell towers to boost
coverage. AT&T's not
alone here.
Verizon's building
out its own
ultrafast LTE
network for 2010.
And even little old
Sprint's throwing $1
billion into the pot
in the 2nd half to
build out its
network.
And don't forget...
when AT&T's iPhone
exclusivity
agreement with Apple
expires... possibly
as soon as next
year, this
data-hogging
smartphone will come
to other carriers,
causing them to
spend still more on
wireless
infrastructure to
support Apple's data
hog.
Okay, so who wins
from this wireless
infrastructure
shortage?... Who
benefits from all of
this spending by the
carriers?...
This is a side of
the mobile internet tsunami
that, frankly, I
haven't spent much
time talking about
but, just likely the
other mobile
internet plays, I
think the gains here
could be multi-year,
and I think the
gains could be
enormous...
When you look at
where most of the
problems are
occurring and where
most of the carriers
are making their
investments, it
looks like the big
bottleneck is in the
mobile towers... The
backbone of wireless
communications...
the offramp, the
onramp of the mobile
internet highway...
that's where the
money's going... the
huge volume of data
coming to and from
the iPhone and other
smartphones is
creating this
traffic jam...
I've got a solution
for the traffic
jam... or at least a
solution for you to
make money off of
it... more cell
towers... more
antennas per
tower... better
connections to the
wireless networks
and stronger
antennas... to
handle the
ever-increasing
amounts of traffic.
That means we want
to buy the companies
that own the towers,
that control the
bottleneck... and
that can keep
throwing on
additional antennas
to boost the
signal... This is a
very lucrative
business to add
antennas, because
almost 90-95% of
incremental revenue
on the towers goes
to cash flow...
There are two big
players here. Again,
I haven't talked
about them...
they're good
stocks...
The first one is
American Tower Corp. (AMT)...
19,600 towers in the
U.S., 75% of them
located in the top
100 wireless
markets...
And the second one
is
Crown Castle Intl. (CCI)...
with 22,300 towers
owned or leased in
the U.S., 72% in the
top 100 wireless
markets.
American Tower has
less debt. Crown
Castle said it
expects new tenant
addition to be
significantly higher
in the 2nd half of
the year. Remember,
the earnings per
share numbers, in
the case of Crown
Castle at least -
their reported
losses - distort the
true strength of
these companies when
you're going to do
your homework...
You'll see that. I
want you to look at
the amazing cash
flow... a much
better indicator of
this kind of
company's health.
They're both great.
But perhaps the best
case for one is made
by a fellow named
Brian Ashtenburg,
who I work with at
TheStreet.com...
He does this
"break-out stocks"
newsletter... and
gave me some of the
ideas for this.
He came up with a
name called
SBA Communications Corp.
(SBAC)...
This is the smaller
one. It's smaller
than American Tower
or Crown Castle. It
has just 7,800
towers... 80% of its
revenue from leasing
space on its towers
to wireless service
providers. They want
to expand coverage
and they need to put
up more antennas.
Once you have a
tower, it's cheap
and easy to put up
an additional
antenna, which gives
your business model
enormous operating
leverage, especially
considering the huge
demand from carriers
for more
bandwidth.... Apple
hog...
That's how SBAC gets
most of its money.
It also gets 20% of
its sales from
consulting and
end-to-end
construction
services for its
wireless carrier
customers. When they
want to put up a new
tower, or 2,100
towers like AT&T is
doing, SBAC tells
them how it should
be done, and then
helps them build it.
It's a fabulous play
on the need for
additional wireless
infrastructure to
accommodate
the mobile internet tsunami.
SBAC is a serial
outperformer, having
raised guidance
three straight
times. Management
has said that it
expects activity
levels to improve
throughout the rest
of the year.
How else?...
How about this?...
How about a company
that makes better
antennas?...
That's a company
like
CommScope Inc. (CTV),
a component of our
mobile internet
index.
It's up about 12%
since the index was
created, in line
with the index...
and I think
Commscope, which
gets 60% of its
sales from wireless
infrastructure,
including some of
the best antenna out
there, will exceed
the Index's
performance by a
very big margin, as
wireless carriers
spend more to keep
the wireless traffic
flowing.
Tomorrow, on
Speculative Friday,
I will give you two
other wireless
infrastructure
plays, but not
today... They're
small-cap, and you
need a Taft-Hartley
style cooling off
period over the
weekend before you
hear them.
Here's the bottom
line...
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Bottom
Line:
The best way to play
the wireless
infrastructure
shortage is with the
cell tower
companies. For the
conservative among
you, I want you to
look at
American Tower Corp. (AMT)
or
Crown Castle Intl. (CCI).
For the more
aggressive, go with
SBA Communications Corp.
(SBAC)
or
CommScope Inc. (CTV).
And, yes, if you
want to roll the
dice on the concept,
watch tomorrow
night's show.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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