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[Beginning of
Cramer's
verbatim
comments for
this segment...]
Jim:
For speculation
Friday, I want
to put a
spotlight on the
speculative tech
stocks that have
been left
behind… I call
them the
forgotten tech
specs… actually
there is really
only one of
them… and the
name is
Tekelec (TKLC)…
while the stocks
in the
mobile internet
index that I
created on
August 11th,
that was a way
to measure the
smart phone
revolution… you
know they are up
an average of
over 13%… the
S&P is up about
half of that,
7.5%… Tekelec is
flat since I
created the
index… flat..
that is a
travesty… by the
way, the
speculative
stocks that I
have recommended
since early May…
they have done
even better…
they are up an
average of 30%…
that is leaving
my new fave
Tekelec in the
dust...
It is an
underperformer… but
I think that it has
what it takes to
become a 57
varieties Heinz
catch up play… now I
like these
speculative tech
stocks… I really do…
and as part of a
field bet on the
guts on the mobile
internet, they are
terrific… now it is
either smart phone
components or
wireless network
equipment makers…
now in a field bet
that I discuss in
Jim Cramer's Real Money: Sane Investing In An
Insane World…
and I elaborate in
my new book coming
out next month,
Jim Cramer’s Getting
Back To Even,
your personal
economic recovery
plan… you take a
bunch of positions
in a basket of small
speculative stocks
in an industry that
you think is going
to roar… do not want
to be left out…
Tekelec should be
part of your
mobile internet
basket…
precisely because it
is the stock that
has not gone
anywhere… therefore,
I regard it as
undiscovered vs. the
rest… I think that
it has huge upside.
The stock is
massively under
covered by the
brokerage houses…
only 7 analysts
follow it… only one
of them likes it
enough to give it a
buy… I think that is
nuts… when you
consider the
fundamentals that I
am about to run down
for this company…
Tekelec is a telco
equipment supplier…
that produces
equipment for a
particular kind of
business that you
and I both know that
if you have kids you
definitely know it
is red hot…
transmitting text
messages… and also
managing voice
traffic on wireless
networks… but text
is so big that the
technology… this is
another one for
those of you who
have ever switched
carriers… it lets
you keep your phone
number when you
switch carriers.. it
is called local
number portability…
it is a market where
it has 35% share…
come on that is
gigantic.
These are all the
things that wireless
providers have to
buy in order to
build out the mobile
internet… you know
we have talked about
how we just do not
have the
infrastructure to
support so many
smart phones…
especially those
bandwidth hogging
iPhones… Tekelec
helps the carriers
deal with that when
it comes to text
messaging and
talking… okay, maybe
it is not as sexy as
video… but it is
vital to the growth
of modern wireless
networks that can
support the mobile
internet… text
messaging, we know
that is gigantic… in
the US, messaging
traffic at AT&T,
Verizon, and
T-Mobile was up 12%
from the previous
quarter… up 80% from
the previous year…
with maybe a little
under half of that
coming from my
kids.. don’t you
want to own the
company with the
tech that is making
texting possible.
Okay Cramer, I hear
you saying, if
Tekelec is so great
why has it lagged
all of the other
stocks that you
recommended… simple…
Tekelec got crushed
from August 4th to
August 6th after
reporting earnings…
the stock has yet to
recover from that
sale off… it is more
than a month ago… it
sold off after
reporting a .04
cents earnings beat…
in other words,
better than
expected… delivered
in line guidance…
but there was a
flaw… a lot of the
damage was caused by
investors who had
caught the run in
Tekelec from $11.30
to $19.64... and I
think they were
taking money off of
the table.
The problems with
the quarter… okay,
even though demand
in emerging markets
has picked up…
developed markets
still have not
gotten off the
ground… like us… I
am not worried here…
Tekelec saw some
signaling orders
coming from the US
customers like
Verizon , AT&T… boy
that stock did well
today… and we know
that they have only
just begun to spend
on the mobile
internet build out…
which is why
Tekelec’s management
expects order trends
to improve in the
second half… I
believe Tekelec… I
think the real
reason, frankly, for
Tekele’s pollaxing
has to do with
India… which has the
fastest growing
wireless network in
the world…
something, of
course, you would
have had a hint of
if you watched “Slum
Dog Millionaire”.
Local number
portability…
Tekelec’s big
business… was
supposed to launch
in India by the end
of the September… it
did not… by now it
is expected to
happen by the end of
the year… fingers
crossed… as Tekelec
already does
business with five
of the top seven
carriers with India…
and controls more
than a third of the
market for local
number portability…
India should be
gigantic for them…
that is why I do not
mind the delay… I do
not think the delay
matters… Tekelec was
not expecting local
number portability
to hit its income
statement this year
anyway… because of
revenue recognition
rules… so the delay
will not hurt the
numbers… I think
this is the time.
International
opportunity still
very much alive…
with the US now
picking up, Tekelec
is, yes, a
speculative buy…
there are 10 more
countries
implementing local
number portability
in the next two
year… Argentina,
Brazil, China,
Chile, Ecuador,
Peru, Russia,
Thailand, Turkey…
come on, on the text
messaging side,
carriers are getting
even more
competitive… Sprint
now coming out with
that plan, unlimited
internet access,
texting, email, TV,
music, GPS
navigation, $70 a
month… I may have to
switch to that… that
is the lowest price
yet… now Sprint is
desperate for
business, but the
other carriers will
likely have to
follow suit… and
that means more
demand for Tekelec’s
signaling and
equipment… and we
liked that Palm
number last night…
800,000 Pre‘s is
pretty good.
Tekelec is a $16
stock and it has $4
in cash… it has no
debt… you back out
the cash… 12 times
earnings… that is
not a whole lot
lower the stock can
go without starting
to attract real
buyers, so to speak…
Tekelec is expected
to earn a $1 in
2010... I think that
is conservative… I
think that it can go
$1.35... that would
make it 16 times
earnings, the
current multiple…
you have a $21
stock... but if it
gets a higher more
reasonable
multiple…look, I
could argue 20
times… it is a $27
stock masquerading
as a $16 stock… that
might be as much as
a 68 gain… remember,
it is speculative.
Okay, here we go
again.. small stock,
use limit orders,
nothing else is
happening with this
company other than I
am talking about it…
so if it jumps, that
is wrong… do not
move the stock with
your buying… you
have the weekend to
do the homework… it
is why I try to say
speculation Friday…
so you can’t just
dive in tonight and
buy after hours… or
the next morning…
you have to think
about it… think
about it all
weekend… it is a
Taft-Hartley like
cooling off period.
Here is the bottom
line…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Bottom
Line:
For a mobile
internet play on
texting and
switching numbers
that has got a ton
of international
exposure… that has
not moved… unlike
all of the other
stocks in the index
that I put together…
take a look at the
forgotten tech spec…
take a look at
Tekelec (TKLC)…
TKLC.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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