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  Opening Segment #1:
Schooling The Bears
  Monday, November 2, 2009
 
 

 

   
 

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General market comments, below...

 

 


[Beginning of Cramer's verbatim comments for this segment...]

Jim:
          
If today’s roller coaster action teaches us anything… it is that you have to be flexible… and that is something the bears in this market just do not seem to understand… they are puzzled… to them, everything is negative… there is no piece of data that they will not put a pessimistic spin on… and depressive bets this practice… interpreting everything negatively… as though they are afraid to admit that anything might be going well or improving… you know what?… these negativists would find a way to knock the huge Denbury encore deal in the oil patch this morning… or how about the gigantic Stanley Works Black & Decker take over announced this very evening…oh I can hear them… I can hear them… they are whispering to each other, I know what they are saying.. I will not get bullish until I see an encore to encore… Stanley… they presume they overpaid...

 

Right now I consider myself a bull… but I am also willing to admit that I think we have seen the highs for the year… I do not see all that much to like about the market… except when it sells off hard and then I get interested… the bears… no… they are never interested… why?… because everything to them… everything is a prelude to a crash… everything is frightening… when we dropped big on Friday… what was supposed to happen on Monday?… we were supposed to crash… when we opened up in reverse today… sent back down… what was supposed to happen?… by the end of the day we were supposed to crash… I guess when we see the employment data on Friday, you know what is going to happen?… crash.

I think they believe the bulls are just a bunch of crash dummies… this kind of thinking is extraordinary because it leaves no room for anything to work out for the best… now look, I have been a pessimist all my life… at least about my personal life… but at least I see a little ray of sunshine now and then… it is always raining where these bears are from… I bet Seattle seems pretty sunny to these Kodiaks… hey like I said in Jim Cramer’s GETTING BACK TO EVEN… you have to be willing to acknowledge when you have made a mistake… instead of digging in your heels when you are wrong.

Now, I am completely willing to accept that the data about the economy is mixed right now… some numbers disappoint… we had some not so hot jobless claims this week… I was not crazy about last weeks new home sales… although the existing home sales today were pretty terrific… I am perfectly willing to admit now and then that things are mixed… and yes I acknowledge pretty much every day that the economy has stabilized… albeit at lower levels… I see the turf that saws it is all rosy and, in fact, I am totally apoplectic about the lack of job creation… and I think that we really could be hurt down the road by the lack of employment… the bears on the other hand, they never see anything… if you listen to them every piece of data is just down right awful… every housing number is a step down… every car sale number is disappointing… and anything that is good like the GDP number that we got last week… is explained away as rearview mirror… objects seem higher and bigger and everything else than they seem… despite the fact that when the good rearview mirror news was actually happening… these ? majors… they did not see any good news at all.

And heaven forbid… heaven forbid… if you are positive about anything right now… like the rebuild of capital at Ford… or how about the turn in orders at 3M… or United Tech… or BHP… Freeport, remember they have got a dividend now… you are ridiculed by the bears… ridiculed… you are embarrassed … you are pantsed… for not seeing the burning forest thru the saplings… when it comes to being bullish… I feel exposed… as exposed as Bambi’s mom… or maybe Thumper in a forest fire… remember the press bought the move up from Dow 6500 to Dow 10,000 with tooth and nail… hammer and tongs… with everything that it had in its arsenal… solid bank earnings were dismissed as paper gains… fantastic industrial earnings were explained away as just the results of aggressive cost cutting… and any macro economic number that signaled some kind of strength, they were all scoffed at… or blamed, cash for clunkers… $8,000 home builder credit… nothing happened… it gets frustrating… as to make you feel that you simply cannot be doing anything right… unless you are 100% negative all the time.

Dismiss all the positives as being phony… take retail… things are doing better at Kohl’s… take TJX… Bed Bath & Beyond… Costco… J.Crew…. well, polar bears writing us all off… one time only… back to school season was supposed to be awful… it turned out great… now holiday sales, I guess they are going to have to be miserable… right?… when those turn out to be strong… what is next?… a weak Valentine’s Day?… maybe a bad Groundhog Day… lousy Festivus sales…. sound reasonable.

Or they will come out with an alternative reason like, sure residential real estate might be bottoming… but commercial is about to collapse or explode… or sure, natural gas might be bottoming… but oil is about to plummet… or sure, Goldman Sachs has made money and repaid TARP… but Wells Fargo is a disaster in the making… it is endless… it is totally endless… it is tact for tact.

The bottom line…

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

The Bottom Line!:     It is possible to be too skeptical… and the bears along with the media have taken skepticism of this market to the utmost extremes… do not be fooled… there are real positives out there… even as the data is mixed… not all bad… but mixed… and on the good days like today when we were supposed to crash… and instead finished strong… you remember that unequivocally positive data like we had this morning does reassure the buyers… even as it is meaningless to the intelligentsia that set the bogus intellectual agenda.

[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]

Read Jim's next Segment here  

Market Results today:

Dow:  + 77

Nasdaq:  + 4

S&P 500:  + 7

 

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