Jim:
It is always
a good idea
to keep some
gold in your
portfolio…
as insurance
against
inflation
and economic
chaos… the
trouble is
figuring out
how to own
it… do you
buy the
stock of a
gold miner?…
maybe the
ETF, like
SPDR Gold ETF
(GLD),
that tracks
the price of
gold?… maybe
actual gold
bouillon…
which you
pay extra to
store in a
depository
bank… in
Getting
Back To Even,
I tell you
that it is
usually a
good idea to
stick with
the GLD, the
ETF… over
the gold
miners for
straight
exposure to
gold… why?…
Because gold
miners can
have all
sorts of
problems
that eat
into the
companies
earnings…
but have
nothing to
do with the
price of the
precious
metal… the
GLD tracks
the price of
gold… it is
never going
to be hit
directly
with higher
cash costs
or mine shut
downs or
delays in
construction
or
production
short falls…
but a gold
miner, can
get hit with
any of these
problems.
And it is
just my luck
that the
gold miner
that I have
recommended
about all
others,
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM),
was actually
hit with all
of them in
the quarter
it reported
on
Wednesday…
this quarter
was a text
book case of
how a gold
miner can do
badly even
when the
price of the
commodity is
sky high… it
makes what
they went
thru in “The
Treasure of
the Sierra
Madre” look
like a joy
ride… since
the last
time that I
featured
Agnico-Eagle
on the show
on July
29th, when
it was at
$52... the
stock is up
about 4.3%…
now the GLD
is up 14%
over the
same period…
so the
numbers say
stick with
the ETF…
although
this stock
is up so
much more
than the
GLD.
What went
wrong
here?.. the
company lost
.02 cents
per share…
the street
was looking
for .21
cents
earnings… it
produced
30,000 fewer
ounces than
expected… it
lowered its
production
guidance for
the year..
its cash
costs came
in $449 an
ounce…
almost
double what
many were
expecting…
its Lappa
Mine,
Agnico-Eagle
is facing
dilution
issues… it
has to
remove more
rock
relative to
the amount
of gold that
it
extracted…
and that is
causing
lower
production
and higher
cash costs…
although,
since the
end of the
quarter this
problem has
declined… at
its Kittila
Mine,
Agnico-Eagle
had a
massive shut
down.. the
mine was
shut for 22
days as the
company had
to make
repairs at
its mill…
faced a 7
day shut
down at its
Larenda
Mine, for
maintenance
upgrades…
the company
also delayed
the start up
of its Pinos
Altos Mine,
which was
expected to
happen the
third
quarter… but
now looks
like it will
come near
the very end
of the year
because it
is taking
Agnico-Eagle
longer than
expected to
set up its
filter
presses.
And at the
companies
Gold X Mine,
management
decided to
go thru a
lower grade
portion of
the mine
during the
quarter…
which
increased
cash costs…
the problem
is over…
they
switched
back to a
higher grade
in October…
but you see
why all of
this makes
us uneasy…
if all of
these
problems
could hit
Agnico-Eagle,
one of the
best run
gold miners
out there…
all during
the same
darn
quarter… how
can anyone
own a gold
miner and
still sleep
at night?…
isn’t it
better to
stick with
the GLD
which will
never get
hit by these
issues?…
rather than
take chances
with a
company that
actually
mines gold?…
or am I
jumping the
gun?… maybe
things have
gotten as
difficult as
they can for
Agnico-Eagle…
and it is
all good
news and
ramping
production
from here on
out… that is
what I want
to ask Sean
Boyd, the
CEO of
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM)…
Mr. Boyd,
welcome back
to Mad
Money.
Jim:
Sean:
Thanks Jim.
Jim:
Mr. Boyd,
killed people here.
I got this wrong and
I want to know
whether it can be
straightened out.
Because this is
really one of the
worst quarters that
I have seen from a
company that I have
had on my show.
Sean:
When you look
at the issues, a lot
of them when you
went thru them,
relate to start up
and commissioning.
There is no fatal
flaws in any of
these deposits.
Simply dealing with
things relating to
start up. I think,
as you indicated,
things happened over
a very short period
of time. We have
made improvements in
almost all of the
issues that you
described to
position us for the
fourth quarter. Just
beginning back to
your argument, GLD
vs. gold company.
There was some
recent research put
out by UBS which
looked at 20, 15,
and 5 time horizons
for selected gold
stocks vs. gold vs.
major stock indices
and the good quality
gold companies did
well over all of
those time horizons.
And beat gold. And
beat the major stock
indices. So I think
that if you get the
right gold stock,
you will do better
than the GLD.
Jim:
I always
thought you were
better than everyone
else. I never
thought that this
could happen all at
once. I put my trust
in you as the best
gold executive in
North America.
Sean:
Well, I think
getting back to that
20 year time
horizon, 15, 10, 5
year time horizon.
We have outperformed
all of the senior
gold companies. So
when you look at
this and try to pull
it in context, and I
appreciate the
opportunity to be
able to do that,
these are start up
issues. We have
resolved most of
them. We are
building three
mines, or
commissioning three
mines, in a very
short period of
time. We are
disappointed. But
there is no need to
change the strategy.
There is no need to
change and do things
differently than
what we have been
doing in the past. I
think the investment
case that you have
been making over the
last couple of years
with respect to good
quality gold
companies holds
true. Production in
the 4th quarter
should be up above
40% over where it
was in the 3rd
quarter. That looks
after all of your
cost. Unit cost
issues, as we move
into 2010, although
we lowered our
guidance, we did not
make any changes to
our internal
targets. All we have
done is put in a
cushion there. We
are commissioning a
big new mine in the
Canadian Arctic in
January. It is not
an issue of mining.
We will have
significant tonnage
stock piled. So we
have just decided,
based on our rough
start ups at a few
of these mines, that
we should make that
cushion. And we will
have no changes
beyond 2010. So that
growth is maintained
all the way up thru
2014.
Jim:
Why add still
one more mine? To me
it just seems that
you have so much on
your plate trying to
ramp up all of these
other mines. Why are
you risking it? Why
are you risking
coming on the show
and making the
promise? And then it
could just be bad. I
mean, you could hurt
people here.
Sean:
Well, what we have
done is this mine
has been under
construction for a
couple of years. So
we are very close
and almost complete
with construction
here. So what we are
saying, and we were
saying with our
numbers last week,
is that we have
built in a
contingency for
that. Even with that
contingency, the
growth is still
dramatic. We have
worked thru a lot of
these start up
issues now. As we
have moved thru
October and into
November.
Jim:
One last question, I
liked you guys
because you were the
lowest cost
producer. You are no
longer that by a
mile. Are you going
to be able to get
back?
Sean:
Well, it is
all a function of
the denominator. And
as production goes
up, your unit cost
on a per ounce basis
will drop. And we
will still be well
below the industry
average as we move
thru 2010.
Jim:
Look, I am
sorry, I am
disappointed. You
know I bank with
you. I really hope
that next quarter
will be a better
one.
Sean:
Thank you.
Jim:
Okay, thank you
very much. Mr. Boyd
of
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM).
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