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[Beginning of
Cramer's
verbatim
comments for
this segment...]
Jim:
This is cancer
research week on
Mad Money… and
we are looking
at companies
that are
fighting the
battle against
this terrible
disease… and we
are trying to
see if some of
them are worth
investing in…
Yesterday, I
highlighted
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
(BMY*)
and
Pfizer (PFE)…
those are the
two most
conservative
ways to play the
fight against
cancer… as the
week goes on we
are going to get
progressively
more
speculative…
meaning for
younger viewers…
with the focus
on companies
that are focused
entirely on
treating the
many forms of
cancer… that is
why tonight we
are going to go
Off The Charts…
because I do not
like the price
of one of these…
but I certainly
want to talk
about it… we are
going to take a
look at one of
the most
promising cancer
research stocks
out there… you
have heard me
mention it many
times…
And the name is
Celgene Corporation (CELG)…
a local company, I
live in Summit where
it is
headquartered...
Sometimes when you
have a big long term
theme like this
one…looking at the
chart first can help
us to figure out
when and where to
buy… even as we know
that we might like
the company… what
does this chart tell
us?… I have gone to
Dan Fitzpatrick, he
is our go to
technician and he is
my colleague at
RealMoney.com, part
of TheStreet.com
where I am Chairman…
I think Dan had some
pretty interesting
things to say about
this one… see he
likes Celgene… and I
think that we should
put quotes around
likes… he likes it
but he thinks that
you should wait
until you get a
pullback closer to
$48... why?… let’s
learn what the
charts tell us.
Charting is really
important… and I
know many of you
care about it… this
is Fitz’s reason…
you can see this
chart had a major
break our here… now
it had been in a
nasty downturn… it
is interesting… you
can see that it had
a head and shoulders
pattern… but that is
not what intrigues
Fitz… this thing
just had a horrible
downturn since
August of 2008... it
bottomed with the
rest of the market
in March, not much
there… in July the
company reported a
good quarter… and it
jumped… look at this
jump… boom, that is
an amazing jump in a
day… this is called
a gap… that is a
gap… I want to be
very basic because
it is important…
technicians like
Fitz say that the
gap tends to be
filled… now what
does a gap being
filled mean?… it
means that it has to
retreat to where it
was when it had that
breakout… which
means this stock in
Fitz’s parlance is
going lower.
Now, here is where I
think that it gets
really sticky… he
says that if the
stock holds this
line… the 200 day
moving average when
it comes down… he
thinks that it can
bounce… alright, now
keep that in mind…
because he thinks
that if it does not
hold, he thinks the
stock should be sold
because it is going
to go down.. so in
other words, if it
does not hold this
blue line, it goes
down… and if it does
it goes higher..
with me? because
that is really
important to what I
am about to say… I
have a problem with
Fitz’s approach
here… it is why I am
a fundamentalist and
not a technician…
but I do like to
show every way to
try to make money…
and if you are
comfortable with
technical work?… I
am giving it to you.
What is my beef
about the way that
Fitz is analyzing?…
well first I think
that Celgene is not
cheap here…I agree
with him that it can
come down… but where
do I want to buy
it?… now remember I
buy in stages… in
fact, my first buy
would be exactly at
the $48 level which
he is hoping it
holds, right?… if it
fails to use Fitz’s
parlance, again just
staying with the
ergo of technical
work… if it fails, I
do not want to run
from it… I want to
run to it… I want to
double down on a
failure… so if I
wanted 100 shares of
Celgene… I would
first buy 50 at the
blue line $48... and
then I would buy
another 50 wherever
the technicians take
it down to if the
line fails… if it
does not fail, you
have your 50 and you
are done.
See I believe and I
know that this is
going to sound so
common sense school…
but understand, we
are different from
technicians… I
believe that stocks
get cheaper as they
go down… and the
notion of blowing
out something I like
just because it
trades at a lower
price… is totally
antithetical to my
style of investing…
if Celgene breaks
down from $48, I
would have a great
basis… and I would
pick up some right
here up after the
breakdown…I can sit
with the stock and
do my homework and
stay long… remember
we do buy and
homework here… that
is exactly what I do
for
my charitable trust,
ActionAlertsPlus.com…
I just sit there and
wait for the
breakdowns and then
I start buying… I do
not sell… if you do
not know what the
homework is, that is
one of the reasons
why I wrote
Getting
Back To Even.
If I like Celgene
enough to feature it
on this week long
series about
battling cancer… why
don’t I just want to
pull the trigger and
buy the stock right
here where it is?…
because there is
nothing so
compelling at this
moment that makes me
want to jump in…
this has a great
long term story
based on its drugs
that treat various
forms of blood
cancer… and more
drugs in the
pipeline that treat
cancer and
inflammatory
diseases… so why not
take your time?… why
not Fitz’s work
about your entry
point?… and either
way you make your
first buy at $48...
and then use his
work again against
him, to buy more if
it breaks its
support.
Why do we like
Celgene so much? And
why do we have time
to buy it?…
Main reason that I
like the bio-tech is
its huge blood
cancer drug,
Revlimid… it did
$1.3b in sales in
2008... Revlimid is
approved by the FDA
to treat multiple
Myeloma, that is a
cancer of the plasma
cells in bone
marrow… these
cancers are
horrible… that is in
patients who have
received at least
one prior therapy…
Revlimid has also
been approved for
the treatment of
MDS… another
terrible blood
cancer that was
formerly known as
pre-leukemia… the
drug is still being
evaluated in
numerous clinical
trials for the
treatment of a broad
range of blood
cancers… so this
blockbuster drug
could be approved to
treat more diseases…
help more people and
yes, make Celgene’s
shareholders more
money.
There is a lot of
momentum behind
Revlimid… the sales
are accelerating
with several
launches in Europe
hitting the top
line… gaining market
share in the US… up
3% in the last
quarter over the
previous one…
penetration still
only at 34%... it is
about to launch in
Canada and Latin
America… expected to
launch in Australia
late in the fourth
quarter… Japan next
year… given that the
drug is life saving,
we do not think that
it is going to be
threatened by any
government crack
downs on costly
drugs… however,
those fears have
kept the lid on this
stock and shrunk
what is known as
price to earnings
multiple… it is not
going to blow off
the fears any time
soon… that is a
reason why I do not
want you to defy
Fitz’s chart work.
Good news… it is not
a one drug wonder…
it has also got
Thalomid, which was
approved by the FDA
in 2006 for patients
with newly diagnosed
multiple Myeloma…
$110m in sales just
last quarter… $8m
more than what the
street expected… it
made an acquisition
of Pharmion in 2008
so it has Vidaza,
that is a
chemotherapy agent
for the treatment of
MDS… $103m in sales
last quarter… I mean
it has got a lot of
stuff… it has got a
blockbuster drug
with multiple
indications
including more to
come… it has other
drugs that give it
an incredible
portfolio of
products that fight
many different kinds
of blood cancer.. it
delivered that
better than expected
quarter on October
22nd… but it is down
5 points since then…
it trades at
slightly less than
29 times 2010
earnings.. and that
is expensive vs.
other pharmaceutical
companies… but it
has got a 24% long
term growth rate… I
think that it could
go a good deal
higher before it
stops being cheap
relative to earnings
and growth… if you
like the anti-cancer
thesis, you are
going to get a
chance to make what
I think is going to
be a terrific trade…
not an investment… a
trade… ahead of the
annual American
Society of
Hematology meeting…
that is December
5th, write that
down… Celgene is
going to be
presenting some
terrific relevant
data on December
5th… again no hurry
though… I would not
pull the trigger on
this trade until the
week before the
conference.
Here is the bottom
line…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Bottom
Line:
Celgene Corporation (CELG)
is a fabulous
bio-tech company…
with a terrific
slate of drugs for
fighting cancer…
especially Revlimid…
great pipeline… I
think that it could
be a takeover target
for a bigger pharma
player looking to
expand its oncology
business… but as Dan
Fitzpatrick’s chart
shows us… you do not
have to buy it right
here… let it fill in
the gap…you could
buy it here if you
really wanted… but I
would much prefer
for you to wait for
a pullback to his
buy point of $48...
remember, you might
get a chance to buy
this one at a true
discount price
courtesy of
technicians dislike
of stocks that drop
below the 200-day
moving average… now
that should not mean
much at all to those
who want to have a
long term call on
Revlimid’s potential
against multiple
cancers… including
indications that
might surprise
everyone down the
road… let the stock
break down, and then
do some big buying.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
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