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  Opening Segment #1:
Cramer's Game Plan
for Next Week

  Friday, February 05, 2010
 
 

 

   
 

 Update!   Too compelling!  Just re-bought Weyerhaeuser as a housing play!...  
See Jim's entire Charitable Trust Portfolio
 
here >>  

 
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

UPL

45.81

Ultra Petroleum (UPL)

CVS

31.07

CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS)

VMC

43.66

Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)

ERTS

17.26

Electronic Arts (ERTS)

KO

53.09

Coke (KO)

DIS

29.54

Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

ID

7.28

L-1 Identity Solutions Inc. (ID)

S

3.43

Sprint Nextel Corp. (S)

DISCA

28.46

Discovery Communications (DISCA)

MAR

26.20

Marriott International, Inc. (MAR)

THS

38.60

Treehouse Foods Inc. (THS)

FLR*

43.06

Fluor Corporation (FLR*)

VIA

30.16

Viacom, Inc. (VIA)

PNRA

70.60

Panera Bread Co. (PNRA)

CAKE

21.26

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)

CMG

95.20

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)

 
 

[Beginning of Cramer's verbatim comments for this segment...]

Jim:
       
You want to know why we came back today from the depths of despair, even though for most of the day felt like trading stocks…more like you're trading bullets actually. Maybe the battle of summer, the imperial city of way, pork chop hill! Why we recovered…do you want to know why we recovered in spite of the fear, despite of the endless selling from Hedge Funds going wild to have the Dow close up 10 points and to reach down 168 points at its low. The S&P flat! Hey, Nasdaq up almost 3 1/4, I mean wow! And do you believe me now when I just say that it's the Hedge Funds going wild that's doing all their selling? Because when their selling finished, we rallied hard.

I'll tell you why!...

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Once those moronic Hedge Funds finished liquidating, the market flew to the positive. Why? Because the fundamentals! The fundamentals of most companies out there are a lot better than the selloff would make you believe, and that's actually more important than problems with Europe or the dollar or gold. We talk about those things everyday! It's not making you money, listen to what we're talking about. The fundamentals, that will make you money. It'll make you even more money than the decent unemployment number we got.

Do you know this? Of the 314 companies in
the S&P 500 that have told us what their earnings are so far, 74% were doing better than what I was looking for. 71% have sold more product than I thought they would. That's right! Beat on earnings, beat on revenues! These are unbelievable numbers! I mean, come on! If you watch a lot of TV or read the papers, you'd think the world is ending. Or how about this one…the dividend boost. From November through January, 47 companies in the S&P 500 have raised their dividend. Only 4 cut them. I mean, come on! That's a huge improvement from the 12 months before where we got 40 dividend raises and 21 cuts in the same period.

Yep, this earnings season, it's been fabulous! Is anyone else saying that besides me? We also focused on Portugal. I can't even find Portugal on the map. I mean, I'm looking! I mean, I know it's there. I mean, it's like there's a place called Beats or something!

Anyway, it's eventually the positive fundamentals always win out. And the fundamentals of companies trump to selloff inducing fundamentals of the money management business. See some Hedge Funds were caught leaning the wrong way and they had to sell everything to meet investor demands. Their failing created an atmosphere of tremendous fear everywhere I went, where everywhere I went, where many people believe that we had to fall hard. Because their selling made it look like something was terribly wrong. That judgment was rendered by the closing prices yesterday. It turned out it really didn't mean much at all. The closing prices were wrong like I told you. And the mid-day prices were wrong today. Why? Because we got a good employment number this morning. One that showed a glimmer of hope that we could soon be creating some jobs around this joint and because the earnings we got were terrific. It looks like our friends Chicken and Little seemed to have been terrible forecasters. And we think they'll be wrong again next week when I expect the terrific rally to ensue, at least if we stop worrying about the rain in Spain or Portugal or Greece for that matter, and start focusing on how job creations coming back and most of the earnings are down right awesome. In other words, look let me just boil it down. Business is pretty darn good in the country, doesn't mean the stock market's good. Does mean the stock market will eventually be good which is why I got to play close attention to this game plan.

First, Monday morning… 
CVS (CVS), you probably shop there if you don't shop at Walgreens. Hey, this is a cheap stock, it could be usually undervalued. If they execute, they have not been executing…if we see some signs of return I got to tell you I could be recommending this stock Monday night if they encourage us. After the bell, we got the best single company to measure whether the Stimulus is finally kicking in. It's called Vulcan (VMC). It's a purveyor of rocks, aggregates, cement. You need Vulcan to build roads and the company has told us over and over again that you will start seeing the stimulus in 2010. Let's listen to the conference call to find out if that prediction was true. Memo to President Obama: you should listen too. If you want to find out how a real company that could do some real hiring might actually be doing with our tax dollars, instead of constantly spending all this time with small businessmen and while I love, don't have the broader view like Vulcan does.

How about this one… 
Electronic Arts (ERTS), but we call it ERTS because of the symbol E-R-T-S. That reports after the close. You know I'm fixated on this company. I didn't like it at 40, didn't like it at 30, didn't like it at 20, hey 17.18? My kind of stock! This video game maker barely budged when it slashed guidance gigantically last month. You know I like situations where the negatives are already in the stock. Remember, ever since it acquired Playfish, Electronic Arts has become maybe the best play on social media game and that's by the way what the iPzzad's all about with Apple. Social media gaming is huge. I also like the fact that the company's got a whole new group of titles coming out. This is going to be the day when all those people who hate ERTS join me to the upside.

Tuesday, we hear from two of the largest and most iconic companies in America, maybe in the world.
Coke (KO) in the morning, Disney (DIS) in the afternoon. These 2 companies have so much going for them right now. They are both seasoned players up and down and they are run by truly brilliant people. Kent at Coke. He doesn't make a big splash Kent. But trust me. I mean if we could get the guy on the show it'll be a big deal because the guy hardly ever talks, he's real smart though. Now, I don't want to buy the stocks so what am I talking about them for? I want to listen. Why not buy? Because it is not news that Coke and Disney are doing great. They run, and they've run a lot. Now if you do get any weakness in either of these stocks caused by the Spanish rain on the plane, yes, pull the trigger. So, if the market's down we're going to buy either Coke or Disney. They're probably, may I tell you, the 2 best companies that report next week.

Now, Wednesday morning, we got the probation hearing.
L-1 Identity Solutions Inc. (ID). We have thought long and hard about this biometrics company and we are willing to listen because the stock did not go down when it last disappointed. Remember how harsh we were about this one? Well, we still want to believe in L-1 as it's a play in counterterrorism, one of our big themes for 2010. It's got a CEO who has made shareholders a lot of money at other companies. But seeing is believing and we haven't seen it yet. Either way I will give you a verdict on Wednesday night. I do have my fingers crossed because Mr. LaPenta, who's the CEO, is a really good guy. I really want him to deliver. I have rarely for a company. I'm cheering for L-1.
 
Next, popular home gamer name,
Sprint Nextel Corp. (S), reports Wednesday before the bell. Could this be the quarter where business starts to turn. That's what we're going to be listening for. And we will be all over Sprint if the turn is upon us. At $3 how can we not be! It's like one of those lottery tickets I see people playing all the time when I'm just trying to buy the paper, and they're always in front of you and stuff and it like takes a long….anyway, we have our eyes on Discovery Communications (DISCA) as well. Cable is on fire! People want to own cable companies so badly and yet this is a pure play on cable. It's the one you need. This one is a buy. And I'm not just saying that because I love the mirror cats.

On Thursday morning, we are going to hear from
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR). Which we are now enamored of because it reinstated its cash dividends today. Not that anybody care because they were so focused on the rain of Spain, the dollar, oil, I don't know! Everything that doesn't matter! Treehouse Foods Inc. (THS), our favorite private label play, also reports Thursday and it should be good. Remember we had them on, the stock we liked it at 28 and it's at 30 and we still like it. Hey we're going to be listening to Fluor Corporation (FLR*), I had mispronounced that because I'm from Philadelphia, you don't have to put that one on. That's another counterterrorism theme. And I think it's a lot better than L-1. And of course we're going to hear from Viacom, Inc. (VIA). Now, what will we be listening to on Viacom conference call? We're going to see how much "Jersey Shore" made…remember, that had a million viewers, it went to 4 million viewers, and we're going to figure out how much this situation is really worth. Viacom's a cable play, like Discovery, that's worth more than it is selling for that I will tell you. And I am not just saying that because Snookie and Sponge Bob are reported to be big fans of the show.

After the close we will be listening, like crazy and eating like crazy, to
Panera Bread Co. (PNRA), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG). These sweet stocks do make us salivate. Cheesecake Factory because it is incredibly well run. Chipotle because it's blessed by fame, author and restauranteur Danny Meyer. Remember he wrote that book "Setting the table" which I said is the best business book I've ever read. Panera has the strongest growth in the casual dining industry. Panera is the best of the 3, but oddly also the one you have to be the most weary of as it may have run more than all the others. But here's why we listen to these things. All 3 will give us a better read on the consumer than we'll get from any 10 guess by an analyst by looking at numbers out of Washington. Because you can do that…you can do without all 3. You don't have to go to Panera, you don't have to go to Cheesecake, you don't have to go Chipotle, you don't. See, if you hear that business's good it confirms what I'm thinking. People are feeling a heck of a lot better about themselves and their pocket books and they're willing to go out instead of staying at home, okay.

Now finally, this is the only trade recommendation I'm making off this whole game plan. On Friday,
Ultra Petroleum (UPL) reports. Ultra was hammered again today, it's been weak. But this is the only company reporting I think you should buy ahead of its quarter because of its consistency and our long term belief in natural gas. If this one's down even as early as Monday, I would buy some.

The bottom line...

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

Even though the market got pummeled this week, the earnings have been strong so far and I think the trend continues next week.  I want you to watch CVS (CVS), Vulcan (VMC), Electronic Arts (ERTS), Coke (KO), Disney (DIS), L-1 (ID), Sprint (S), Discovery Communications (DISCA), Marriott (MAR), Treehouse Foods (THS), Fluor (FLR*), Viacom (VIA), Panera (PNRA), Cheesecake (CAKE), Chipotle (CMG). And if you want to buy something, the only one I'm giving you my blessing to do is I'd like you to buy Ultra Petroleum (UPL) before Friday.

[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]

*Note:  An asterisk next to a stock indicates that Jim owns it currently for his charitable trust.  If you are interested in a particular stock, Jim Cramer recommends that you always do the homework on each stock, and that you wait at least one trading week after his show recommendation to evaluate whether it is a good stock trade or investment for you. 

To help you with this, we have created an ONGOING STOCK PORTFOLIO which provides the changing stock prices for each major stock recommendation after 1 week, 1 month and 1 quarter for you here >> 

Read Jim's next Segment here  

Market Results today:

Dow:  + 10

Nasdaq:  + 16

S&P 500:  + 3

 

See all of tonight's stocks mentioned
on Yahoo! Finance,
here...

 
 
 

   
 
   
 

 

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