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[Beginning of
Cramer's
verbatim
comments for
this segment...]
Jim:
Wow, oh hey, we
have been
getting a lot of
calls lately,
mostly
plaintively, how
can you play
this 3D? After
the gigantic
success of
“Avatar”, which
is now the top
grossing movie
of all time…
over $2b in
global box
office receipts…
a movie that
looks so good
that you do not
even remember
the plot, or the
characters, let
alone remember
anything…not
that I know… I
never leave the
dirty linoleum
floor I have at
home, this is a
simulation of
what I have at
home… I never
leave that long
enough to go to
the movies… and
I am also too
busy reading
conference
calls, and
conference calls
pornography...
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Now, because this is
the most interactive
show on television…
and I take your
ideas somewhat
seriously… in fact,
sometimes your ideas
are so good I just
take them… Mad Money
is going 3D tonight…
what, you can’t see
this at home? I
promise you it looks
amazing… no other 64
year old, soon to be
65, according to
Wikipedia… which
also, by the way,
has my non-existent
middle name as
Joseph, so I guess
my Mom was wrong
when she named me…
anyway, no other man
my age looks this
good in 3D… we have
already seen some
great results from
companies which
benefit from the 3D
trend… which I am
calling the 3D
typhoon, to
distinguish from and
by homage to a new
tsunami… as opposed
to the mobile
internet tsunami.
Dolby just reported
a great number on
Wednesday, I cannot
believe how great
that quarter was…
I-Max has been on an
upward trajectory
since January… I
want to announce the
joint venture with
Discovery
Communications,
reports next week,
should be good… and
Sony, reported
yesterday, looked
fabulous… to launch
a new 3D television
channel starting in
2011.… wow!… you
know what? This is
not a fad… I think
that it is the next
great leap forward
for the movie
industry… one that
is comparable to the
change from silent
pictures to talkies…
or from black and
white to color… it
is the technology
that gives movie
theaters the edge
over DVD’s, home
theater systems,
VDR’s, whatever all
that stuff is that
you time shift, you
know what I mean?…
and you can watch at
home… all that stuff
that has been
killing the movies…
it is a viewing
experience that
television just
can’t duplicate… no
matter what, and it
is proven to get
people back in their
seats and buying
overpriced popcorn,
expensive soda,
amazing Whoppers,
and Icies… at least
when the ice machine
is not broken.
So what do I think
is the best way to
speculate on the 3D
typhoon? It is a
stock that my
friend, buddy, pal
Brandon in Texas
asked about in last
Thursday’s Lightning
Round…it is the
stock called
Cinemark Holdings Inc.
(CNK)…
this is the third
largest movie
theater operator in
the US … with 426
theaters, 4908
screens worldwide,
296 theaters in the
US with 3842
screens… mostly
suburban
metropolitan areas
in the US… as well
as 373 3D projectors
to play worldwide…
and it is that 373
that we are liking …
at the time when
Brandon asked, I
said that Cinemark
was a do not buy…
but now I am
revising that
opinion…
remonstrating about
my own snap
judgment, and
telling you that
this theater company
with a notoriously
B.I.G 5% yield is
our favorite
speculative 3D play…
I also need to give
a major chat out to
Brian Ashenberg, my
colleague who writes
the fabulous
“Breakout Stocks”
newsletter at
TheStreet.com, where
I am Chairman… since
Brian is the one who
sold me on Cinemark
when he bought it
for Breakout Stocks
portfolio…he has
been hitting it out
of the park
regularly… and he
kindly pointed me in
the right direction,
post my Lightning
Round answer.
Not only does 3D
make it worth going
back to the movies,
turning a dull movie
stock like Cinemark
into something sexy
… it has also got a
world wide market
potential of $20b…
2008 the worldwide
box office total
$28b… in 2009, 3D
showings earned over
$1b in the US…. but
that is only 9.4% of
the total domestic
box office… by 2015,
box office revenues
from 3D films could
total $9.4b in the
US… we want in on
that… that is going
to represent more
than half of the
total domestic box
office… I have got
to tell you that
that is incredible
growth… I do not
have that kind of
growth with most
companies.
Internationally, now
we turn to William
Blair which is a
pretty good
brokerage house …
the 3D box office
could come $11.1b…
it is going to take
a little… which is
why favor a domestic
theater operator
like Cinemark…
currently there are
17 3D films planned
for just 2010...
that is up from 12
from 2009... let me
see we have “Alice
In Wonderland”, we
have got “Shrek
Forever After”, “
Toy Story 3“, “Megamind”..
all potential block
busters… Sony is
rolling out the next
resident evil movie
in 3D in January of
2011, I want to see
that.
So why do I like a
movie theater
operator like
Cinemark over the
media companies that
own the studios? Or
some tech stocks
that are involved in
the 3D process?
First, because the
benefits from
theaters are
straightforward with
what I consider to
be very little
downside… average
ticket price is,
this is really,
listen to this… the
average ticket price
for a 3D film is $3
higher… than an
already overpriced
ticket for a regular
2D movie…. at the
same time, 3D also
gets more people
into theaters… first
for the novelty
factor, and then
over the long term,
3D gives the
theaters a reason to
exist… by providing
an experience that
most people cannot
duplicate on their
TV’s at home.
Plus, theater
operators like
Cinemark are already
doing well… 3D just
gives them an
additional boost so
you get a little
extra revenue… when
the recession first
hit, I… the talk of
the town was that
people would stop
going to movies…
that did not happen
at all… it is like
yesterday when we
had Allergen, and
people thought they
would not take
Botox, that did not
happen either…
people’s behavior
did not change…
instead the dollar
amount of ticket
sales grew 11% vs. a
year earlier in the
first half of
2009... the bad
half… so far in 2010
they are up 12% year
to date… that is
amazing.
Cinemark is in the
best position to
benefit from 3D… it
leads the industry
in converting its
theaters to stadium
seating… with 84% of
its theaters
converted… vs. 78%
for Regal, 76% for
AMC… anyone who has
been to a movie in
the last decade
knows that stadium
seating is better…
and it is definitely
a more enticing 3D
viewing destination…
Cinemark also has an
Imax alternative
called extreme
digital camera, XD…
huge immersive
screens… the company
is currently
embroiled in a legal
battle with Imax
over whether it can
install XD
technology in its
existing theaters…
but the patent issue
does not seem to
stop Cinemark from
building new XD
theaters… there are
fewer than 15 of
these up and
running… the growth
potential here could
be staggering…
Cinemark also has a
Latin American
kicker… 1011 screens
in 12 Latin American
countries… it is the
number one theater
chain in the
Brazilian market.
On top of everything
else, Cinemark’s
management has said
that it expects to
get $725m in
financing for
digital projectors
from the studios… by
the end of the year,
it is a hand out…
great balance sheet,
decent shape, no
significant debt
coming due anytime
soon… and even
though the stock is
a little more than a
point off of its 52
week high, it is
trading at 15.7
times earnings…
which is much lower
than the historical
average of 20 times
earnings… with a
dividend that is
zoftig… to say the
least… man, I should
never have said do
not buy on this one.
The bottom line…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼


The 3D typhoon has
arrived… breathing
new life into an
already healthy
business… and I
think the best way
to speculate on it
is
Cinemark Holdings Inc.
(CNK)…
take your time, buy
small increments..
use limit orders…
study it over the
weekend… this is a
long term theme…
there is absolutely
no reason to jump
all over this stock
other than the fact
that I feel like I
had to stand
corrected after I
told Brandon, do not
buy, do not buy, do
not buy.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
*Note:
An asterisk next to
a stock indicates
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